Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Brampton North


Prediction Changed
2018-06-01 20:56:00
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

ARGUE, GREGORY

DHILLON, RIPUDAMAN

MALHI, HARINDER K.

THORNHAM, PAULINE

YARDE, KEVIN


Incumbent(s):
    Brampton-Springdale
   Harinder Malhi

   (78.39% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Bramalea-Gore-Malton
   Jagmeet Singh

   (15.71% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Brampton West
   Vic Dhillon

   (5.90% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions


Reference:
Population (2011):111951


2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

13460 39.93%
8239 24.44%
10555 31.31%
1149 3.41%
OTHERS 309 0.92%
Total Transposed 33713

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Brampton-Springdale

10579
6341
8588
744
Others220
Total Transposed26473

     Bramalea-Gore-Malton

1997
1354
1607
357
Total Transposed5316

     Brampton West

884
544
359
47
Others89
Total Transposed1924


Federal Election Result (2015):

Ruby Sahota
2329748.40%
Parm Gill **
1588833.00%
Martin Singh
794616.50%
Pauline Thornham
9151.90%
Harinderpal Hundal
1200.20%


 

05/06/2018 MF
50.101.245.26
The Jagmeet Singh effect, a strong base for the NDP in the riding from last time, the collapse of the Liberals and the ethical challenges of the PC candidate should put this in the NDP column.
03/06/2018 The Elites
99.231.133.51
QP Briefing has just broke news that the PC candidate here is facing multiple lawsuits, including for fraud and breaches in ethics. Combine that with Wynne's announcement this weekend, the NDP should be able to pick this one up.
27/05/2018 Dr. Bear
184.175.13.231
With very similar 2014 numbers to Brampton Centre, I would expect this race to have a similar outcome. True the fact that there is a liberal incumbent will result in team red doing a bit better here, I still suspect the NDP are starting to be the ones to beat. I say TCTC for the moment.
18/05/2018
157.52.1.221
New Hospital and Singh name will flip this riding to the NDP
11/05/2018 Christopher L
136.152.143.129
It's hard to understand why this is currently listed as a Liberal hold. The polling averages put the Tories up about 15% on their 2014 result in the 905, and the Liberals down about 15%. If anything close to that were to happen here (I don't see any indication it wouldn't - Doug Ford has decent appeal in Brampton), it'd be a clear Tory pickup. Of course the wild card is the strength of the NDP - they might hold on to the 30% they got last time, but it's hard to see them adding to it without Jagmeet around. Tories should be favoured.
07/05/2018 Joe
99.243.204.67
Polls and results from last time out indicate a clear runaway PC win in BramNor.
07/04/2018 A.S.
99.225.48.35
Re 2014's NDP result: it *was* a Jagmeet-spillover effect--the NDP's Gurpreet Dhillon scored a second-place 32% in the former Brampton-Springdale, all on the backs of the north-of-Bovaird/east-of-410 'Singhdale' polls. (In fact, the parts of Jagmeet's former riding presently encompassed by Brampton North are among his weakest: North Bramalea, including Professor's Lake.) Heck, given what happened in Brampton *at large* provincially in 2014, no wonder the federal party banked on Jagmeet's leadership coattails (even if they didn't really translate federally in 2015). Which all renders 2018 a provincial wild card. And really, cabinet doesn't give Malhi any special advantage; in fact, vs any replay of the 2014 pro-NDP dynamic *and* Ford Tory mania, she could easily wind up in third place, much like her father did federally in 2011...
05/04/2018 C. H.
24.53.244.189
Like lots of ridings in Peel region, this could easily go any of the three ways depending on the provincial winds and quality of the candidates. Definitely TCTC at the moment.
04/04/2018 Dr.Bear
204.187.20.95
Not a prediction but a point of discussion: The NDP got over 31% of the vote here in 2014. One could argue that this comes from Jagmeet Singh's old riding, but that only comprises about 15% of the current boundary. The numbers just don't work unless: a) Jagmeet's popularity spilled over riding borders; b) the NDP had broader support in Brampton than just Jagmeet mania. If it's the former, then we should expect this 31+ % evaporate this time. If it's the latter, we could see the NDP doing surprising well in Brampton North.
26/03/2018 Innocent bystander
67.215.130.68
The post-Ford-wins polls are out, and the results are horrific for Peel Liberals, showing a net swing to the Tories of over 40 points (-18, +24).
If, and admittedly a large 'if', these results are consistent across the region, the Liberal Peel caucus goes from 7 (out of 8 seats) to nonexistent.
17/03/2018 Innocent bystander
67.215.130.68
The PCs are polling at 50% in Halton-Peel, a 22 point lead over the Liberals. The only way the Liberals hold on is if they show Wynne the door. And, 'Yes', I'm about to make the same comment everywhere the prediction is Liberal.
19/01/2018 Bill
69.158.95.220
This riding got very interesting with the promotion of Harinder Malhi to cabinet as Status of Women minister. The PC's nominated Jass Johal a local paralegal to this riding over a year ago. The NDP will also try to maintain their presence in this riding but with no viable candidate they will likely be relegated to third place again. Harinder is widely popular within the South Asian community as she is also the daughter of the first Sikh MP to ever be elected to the House of Commons in 1992.
15/12/2017 M. Lunn
174.7.110.151
Will likely back whichever party wins although with the rapidly changing demographics as well as both parties vying for the Indo Canadian community vote heavily too early to tell. Doesn't necessarily either swing at the same rate the province does so probably the best indication will be during the campaign to see how much time the leaders spend in Brampton and how the campaign goes. Doubt this can be predicted more than two weeks out from the election unless one party has a strong surge.



Navigate to Ontario 2018 Home | Regional Index | Submission

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.org
© Election Prediction Project, 1999-2018 - Email Webmaster