Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2015

Hochelaga


Prediction Changed
2015-03-21 12:41:17
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Boutin-Sweet, Marjolaine

Breton Fontaine, Marianne

Dandenault, Christine

Dang, Alexandre

Lemay, Nicolas

Marchand, Simon

Rizqy, Marwah

Saint-Cerny, Anne-Marie


Population/populations
(2011 census)

103436


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

34037.21%
2242547.48%
554411.74%
1452930.76%
7901.67%
Other 5471.16%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Hochelaga
   (188/227 polls, 86.24% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Marjolaine Boutin-Sweet
2816
19637
4487
12739
693
Other504


   La Pointe-de-l'Île
   (24/227 polls, 8.17% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Ève Péclet
312
1620
453
1020
52
Other22


   Honoré-Mercier
   (15/227 polls, 5.60% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Paulina Ayala
275
1168
604
770
45
Other21



 


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15 09 15 A.S.
99.233.125.239
Had the 'Duceppe bump' held, this might have been part of the foundation for a Bloc comeback. Unfortunately, Hockelaga also happens to be bookended by Duceppe *and* Mario Beaulieu--given that pack of fossils and nutters, the home of the Big Owe is likelier to be a big fat zero for any colour other than orange.
15 08 14 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
The Conservatives have removed their candidate, Augustin Ali, after it was discovered that he posted a photo of Mulcair on Facebook last year:
http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/canada/446979/les-conservateurs-virent-un-candidat-pro-mulcair
15 03 28 monkey
174.114.31.13
While the NDP is definitely the favourite, I will hold off predicting until we get closer as if there is anything Quebecers have shown, it is the willingness to change on a moment's notice. If this was any other province I would call it for the NDP as dramatic swings are far less prevalent than in Quebec.
15 03 21 Dr. Bear
69.172.99.97
If this riding were anywhere else in Canada, it would have been solid NDP territory for ages. The voters here have finally swung orange and will likely keep voting that way. The BQ will come in second, this is still a separatist riding, and they could win it if they regain support province-wide. Regardless, voters seem to be dumping the old separatist parties for more socialist options. Even in the provincial election, this riding gave QS a good showing and will obviously be where they target in the future. I expect the BQ to target this one hard but will need to focus money and resources on winning their leader a seat in the riding next door.



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