Projet D'Élection Prévision
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élection générale (Canada) - 2011

Honoré-Mercier


La prévision a changé
2009-08-28 16:57:00
 


 
Profil de circonscription

candidats:

Ayala, Paulina

Bédard, Jean-Paul

Bérard, Gaëtan

Chevrefils-Latulippe, Valery

Labelle, Gérard

Laroche, Martin

Rodriguez, Pablo

Député:
Pablo Rodriguez

prévision historiques

  • 2008 prévision
  • 2006 prévision
  • 2004 prévision
  • 2000 prévision
  • anjou-riviere-des-prairies (173/177 Polls)
  • hochelaga-maisonneuve (11/214 Polls)
  • Référence:

  • Pundits’ Guide


  •  


    Nous n'aimons pas des films publicitaires non plus, mais quelqu'un doivent payer le loyer. Remplacez-l'avec votre annonce de campagne ! Voir les détails de patronage.

    11 04 16 Marco Ricci
    72.138.2.247
    The Liberals are low in Quebec, but the problem for the BQ is that the Bloc is at an all-time low in some of the polls too. The BQ has lost ground in the polls since the campaign began, and so even if the Liberal vote drops in a riding like this, the BQ vote will drop too so they will not be able to benefit from it.
    11 04 16 M. Lunn
    174.116.190.108
    If Pablo Rodriguez could survive through the sponsorship scandal, I see no reason why he shouldn't hold this one. It will probably only be a plurality but I expect it to stay Liberal.
    11 04 13 PPF
    24.37.9.210
    Liberals are at all time low in Québec. The Bloc has a well known and appreciated candidate. Also, the libs only won previous elections because of Bloc supporters no show at polls. The Bloc will pick this one up. Pablo is gone
    11 04 12 Marco Ricci
    72.138.2.247
    I also just noticed that the former BQ candidate from 2006 & 2008, Gérard Labelle, is now running for the Conservatives. The fact that the former BQ candidate gave up and joined the Conservatives may show that he didn't think the BQ could win, so that doesn't look good for the BQ.
    11 04 12 Marco Ricci
    72.138.2.247
    I'm not sure if Martin Laroche is considered a 'star candidate'. He is a comedian/actor, but I don't think that's a strong enough profile to win against an incumbent MP in a riding like this. Rodriguez was able to hold this riding during the Sponsorship Scandal, and won by a large margin in 2008. The Liberal vote may be down from 2008, but I think if the Bloc wanted to win here they would have run someone with more political experience. Actors don't usually get elected to Parliament, and Laroche has a thin résumé from what I can tell. The BQ also appears to be down from 2008 in the latest polls, so that may cancel out any decline in the Liberal vote.
    11 04 05 Yanick vaillancourt
    24.37.9.210
    Suite à une course serrée en 2004, le Libéral a connu une remontée artificielle de sa majorité due seulement aux bloquistes qui sont restés chez eux (voir les données) en 2006 et 2008.
    Avec le vent glacial qui souffle actuellement sur la faveur libérale partout au canada mais surtout au Québec, ce n'est pas l'appui de sa petite mafia libérale de village qui permettra à Rodriguez d'être réélu.
    Un candidat vedette comme Martin Laroche il est à peu près temps que ce comté passe au BQ.
    09 09 05 Marco Ricci
    72.138.2.68
    After a close race between the BQ and the Liberals in 2006, this was one of several Liberal ridings in Quebec in 2008 where the Liberal vote went up and the BQ vote went down. Pablo Rodriguez has also become one of the highest-profile Liberals in Quebec. Another Liberal riding that looks like it will stay that way.
    09 08 27 JF Breton
    207.134.225.57
    Circonscription acquise aux Libéraux. Rodriguez ne craint rien, d'autant plus qu'il avait très bien résisté lors du scandale des commandites. Alors maintenant...



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