1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction
Etobicoke Centre

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Candidates:
Liberal Party:
Agnes Potts
Progressive Conservative Party:
Hon. Chris Stockwell MPP
New Democratic Party:
Bonte Minnema
Green Party:
Christopher Morton
Natural Law Party:
Geraldine Jackson
Family Coalition Party:
Dan McCash
Independent:
Elaine Couto

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Etobicoke Humber (57%):
Douglas Ford
Etobicoke West (63%):
Hon. Chris Stockwell

Member of Parliament:
Hon. Allan Rock

Surrounding Ridings:
Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Etobicoke North
Mississauga East
Parkdale-High Park
York South-Weston

Misc:
Population: 102 526
Avg Household Income 66 655
Language (Home)
English 81 260
Italian 2 860
Polish 2 385
Ukrainian 2 030
Submitted Information
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02/22/99 Burke Christian Email: external@msu.mcmaster.ca
Etobicoke Centre is a middle class riding that will only vote for the Liberals or the PC's. The riding under re-distrubution has taken a portion of the former Etobicoke Rexdale which could be helpful for a Liberal candidate. However, the large portion of the riding is upper middle class which tend to vote Conservative. Etobicoke Centre will go with Chris Stockwell for two reasons. First of all, his father was a very popular mayor of Etobicoke and name recognition carries a large sway with voters. Second of all, his has won the last two elections with rather substantial margins. The only down fall for Stockwell could be being Speaker. Some of his hard supporters have criticized him for failing to take stances on issues. The other problem lies in the fact that the last two speakers of the house have failed to win re-election.
03/06/99 A. Email:
Tory - or, rather, Stockwell - landslide. This maverick has been one of the best Speakers in recent memory, and I suspect that many people who *oppose* the Tories will vote for him just to spite Harris.
03/15/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
While Don Valley West might be, technically, the safest PC riding in Toronto, Chris Stockwell's probably the safest PC incumbent--an important distinction. The "defeated speaker jinx" is a myth perpetuated by the supporters of Stockwell's opponent for the nomination, Doug Ford--in fact, Hugh Edighoffer retired from office, and while David Warner *was* defeated, in a NDP backlash year he had little or no chance. This is definitely a case where speakerdom has actually *enhanced* the chances for reelection (at least, by Toronto standards). Still, should the Toronto Tory backlash for any reason extend to Stockwell, he has an excellent Liberal opponent--former Etobicoke councillor and school trustee Agnes Potts. It's too early to tell whether that'll be enough, though.
05/09/99 Email:
Stockwell will lose only in the event of severe Tory hemmoraging in Metro. His father, a past Etobicoke Controller and resident of many years gave his son the name recognition at the polls his son has inherited both Municipally and of late Provincially. Stockwell, "a son of Etobicoke", has VERY deep roots in central Etobicoke. As the fiscal watchdog of the past on local council he will call upon his same appeal to the always tax conscious central Etobians to project a comfortable victory. His attentiveness to the mature population and neighbourhoods of Islington, Thorncrest Village, Markland Woods and the Kingsway will hold tight for him.
05/07/99 PHA Email: paul.anderson@sympatico.ca
There may be some hope for the Liberal camp after all. The NDP has acclaimed Bonte Minnema, a radical gay rights activist from the University of Toronto. Bonte, a promising drag queen is not well suited for a Catholic/Christian riding. Bonte is well known at the University of Toronto as being virulently anti-Catholic and staging a protest at St. Michael's College over some minor student election. Cleraly, this will drive the anti-Harris vote to the Liberals. And jsut when Stockwell was almost safe.
05/09/99 Fast Eddie Email: paul.anderson@sympatico.ca
As I drove through this riding last night, my informal lawn sign poll indicates a landslide for Stockwell, an honourable mention for Potts and the NDP losing their deposit. The people in this riding understand power. They want someone of influence to represent them. Wilson when the PC's ruled Ottawa, but quickly switching to Rock when the Liberals made a comeback. Stockwell is safe as long as the PC numbers hold firm, but if the Liberals turn it around in the province, watch people switch overnight, regardless of lawn sign.
06/01/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
Bonte for Speaker!;-) Seriously, regarding these far-left and just plain out-there young candidates throwing the erstwhile NDP vote Liberalward and beyond, keep in mind that they're running where the notional 1995 NDP total was so low (usually around 10%), there really isn't that much potential strategic spillover. What I'd be more concerned about is Bonte's presence stigmatizing the other two, much more legitimate Etobicoke NDP contenders...

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Last Updated 1st June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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