1999 Ontario Provincial Election
Riding-by-Riding Prediction

Current Prediction:
Riding Profile:

Liberal Party:
Laurel Broten
Progressive Conservative Party:
Morley Kells MPP
New Democratic Party:
Victoria Obedkoff
Natural Law Party:
Don Jackson
Family Coalition Party:
Kevin McGorty
Janice Murray

Incumbent (old riding composition):
Etobicoke Humber (20%):
Douglas Ford
Etobicoke Lakeshore (100%):
Morley Kells
Etobicoke West (17%):
Hon. Chris Stockwell

Member of Parliament:
Jean Augustine

Surrounding Ridings
Etobicoke Centre
Mississauga East
Mississauga South
Parkdale-High Park

Population: 103 438
Avg Household Income 53 486
Language (Home)
English 79 765
Polish 5 410
Italian 2 125
Submitted Information
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02/21/99 OEP Email:
Morley Kells is not well liked in the riding and he is aware of it. Recently he sent out a MPP report filled with pictures of himself. Noted that he sent the report not only to people in his riding, but also people who will be in the new riding.
02/22/99 Burke Christian Email: external@msu.mcmaster.ca
I believe this riding will go with NDP. The riding was held by the NDP for the majority of the last 25 years. The other advantage the NDP have is a strong candidate. Victoria Obedkoff is a local United Church Minister with a strong profile in Etobicoke. She has worked hard on several social justice coalitions and serves as an executive member of the Toronto Social Justice Council. The only thing working against Victoris is the large Kingsway area that has been traditional Tory turf. The one advantage with this is the Kingsway tend to vote for moderates because of their interest in the arts which the Tories and Liberals slashed under their reigns in office. It will be a close one, but I think with the Teachers help Victoria will win the next election in Etobicoke Lakeshore.
03/09/99 A. Email:
The NDP is running a high-profile United Church minister here, Rev. Vicky Obedkoff, who has a large congregation in the riding. Remember that Ruth Grier held this riding for the NDP for many years; they have a very strong base of support. It's also the only area in Etobicoke to have an NDP city councillor, Irene Jones.
Too Close
03/14/99 A.S. Email: adma@interlog.com
A very interesting one to watch. Morley Kells is considered somewhere in the second tier of PCs who MIGHT be able to withstand a Toronto rout (partly by having presented himself as a born-again populist and in-party critic--sort of a lower-key Chris Stockwell--following an early cabinet snub). Despite pockets of support in the predominantly Italian neighbourhoods around the Queensway, the Liberals have had a dodgy history in Etobicoke-Lakeshore; it's the NDP machine that's provided by far the dominant provincial non-Tory force around these parts, giving Terry and Ruth Grier many good years in office. But the NDP came third in 1995's year of repudiation, and boundary changes have struck what appears like a mortal blow, taking them nearly 10 points behind the Liberals. (Granted, the NDP figure's artificially weighed down by those new polls having been in no-hope ridings.) Nevertheless, most of the critical anti-Tory organizations (including C4LD) appear to be discounting those figures and gathering their support behind Vicki Obedkoff--who, interestingly, is a minister in that new and hitherto barren north-of-Bloor territory. After its share of blows in the 90s, the local NDP organization seemed to renew itself for 1997's Toronto municipal election, not only delivering Irene Jones to council but, in the mayoral race, Barbara Hall's best "outer municipality" results. The mid-upscale homeowners along the Sunnylea-Kingsway-Islington axis might be naturally Tory-inclined, but at least for the more conscientiously civic-minded among them, it ought not be such a stretch to turn left when necessary. (Remember: it was something of a pinkish proto-David Orchard appeal that earned E-L's Patrick Boyer the second highest PC vote in Ontario in 1993's federal disaster.) But, given the poor NDP polls overall, I can't "call" this one yet--indeed, it's an excellent opportunity for Kells to come up the middle. But there may be an ominous portent for Kells, who got turfed from Etobicoke-Humber in 1985 right after a mid-campaign dismissal, in his role as Environment Minister, of a PCB spill near Kenora. Now he's the Queen's Park liaison for Toronto's 2008 Olympic bid, which could well collapse in light of the continuing Olympic scandal, just as inconveniently close to election time...
03/18/99 J. B. Email: 8jdb1@qlink.queensu.ca
Mr. Kells is probably going to have a tougher run this time, but, forunately for him, the NDP candidate this time is, I believe, stronger than last. What this might very well mean is that the Liberal/NDP split could be quite significant. The votes Mr. Kells aquired in the Kingsway are no small matter either; the entire area is PC with few exceptions (teachers, mostly). I believe Kells wil win again, although with a smaller percentage of the vote.
04/18/99 L.O. Email: petercashin@yahoo.com
Kells will have a reduced majority. Megacity stuff didn't go well here. whatever the result, it will be close.
05/06/99 Fast Eddie Email: ed@interlog.com
Based on the past results in Ontario elections, this should be between the NDP and PC. However, the Liberal is young and energetic and has been running her campaign for some time. Her tactic is to avoid her party's policies and concentrate on being not-Mike-Harris. It may be effective. Some people have said that the NDP candidate is well-known and popular. I've been in this riding since 1967, followed all elections, and never heard of her. The deciding factor may be the extra chunk of Kingsway this riding has picked up. It may give Kells (PC) the extra votes he needs for the win.
05/07/99 G. Brown Email: georgbrown@excite.com
I have been very impressed with the Liberal candidate. She is quite articulate and will be a good contrast to the PC incumbent. The NDP candidate in the riding is weaker than past ones with most of the anti-PC (and antimega-city) support going to the Liberal. A swing riding in this election!
05/10/99 Toronto Star
Tight three-way race expected in swing riding By Nicholas Keung
05/16/99 Bill Email: wpsignal@idirect.com
While talking to different voters they all agree that to remove the tory they will have to vote for the NDP. When asking Liberal supporters they mostly agree that they will vote NDP to out the Tory. Etobicoke General's closing of their emergency ward has killed the chances of the Tories in this Riding.
05/29/99 C. Chmelyk Email: 7crc1@qlink.queensu.ca
This race definitely needs to be updasted. The media, and voters on the street in this riding are in agreement. The race is betweeen the NDP and the Tories. Laurel Broten ran a strong campaign at the outset of the race, but in a riding that hasn't elected a Liberal in decades, the Liberals' support is waning. The traditional NDP support here is strong and solid.
This riding will go NDP if Liberal supporters go behind Obedkoff. If the NDP fails to convince Liberals to side with them, the riding will go Tory. The Liberals will be a distant third in any case.
05/30/99 OEP Email:
Only the unions and the NDP campaign believes that the race is between NDP and PC. All polls (release by papers/internal PC/ Internal Liberal) show that the race is between Broten and Kells. Ruth Grier was one of the highest profile minister and she came in third in 95. Just for that I think NDP does not have any chance in this riding. Both Kells and Broten are very strong candidates and both have very good campaign.
05/31/99 A. T. Email:
Early in this campaign my research revealed a 3-way race in this riding. Later, when I found this predicition site, I was surprised to discover the prediction of a "too close to call" PC/Liberal race. Given the voting history of the riding and the number of groups endorsing the NDP candidate, Vicki Obedkoff, I wondered what information the owner of this site had that others lacked.
And I'm still wondering, especially since this past weekend's editorials in The Toronto Star. Supporting strategic voting, The Toronto Star editors published the names of 15 candidates (some NDP, some Liberal)they believe can defeat PC candidates. They didn't include suggestions for ridings they perceived to be Tory strongholds nor for ridings where they perceived a race between the Liberals and the NDP. And since the voting history in Etobicoke-Lakeshore indicates stronger NDP roots than PC roots, I conclude the Star editors do not see this riding as a PC stronghold. They must see, therefore, a race between the Liberals and the NDP.
05/31/99 C. Chmelyk Email: 7crc1@qlink.queensu.ca
The Toronto Star seems to think this riding will go NDP. If it doesn't, it will go Tory. Mark my words, the Liberals will come third.
06/01/99 Email:
Lakeshore will be a close 3 way race, but the NDP candidate Obedkoff will come in first. Her church congregation is in the northern -- ie. new -- part of the constituency that doesn't normally vote NDP but will back her because of her very high profile in the community.
06/01/99 Michael Ensley Email: mensley@rocketmail.com
This riding will be taken by the Tories due to the failure of strategic voting to work. The NDP and Liberals split the anti-tory vote. This riding will go Tory due to the weakness of the liberal candidate and the swing to the Tories.
06/01/99 Brad Nicpon Email: nicpon@execulink.com
As the "phenomenon" of vote splitting becomes more real with the election only 2 days away, this is another example of a riding where the conservatives are likely to walk up the middle. Kells has moderate popularity as it is, and the liberal candidate is not high profile, but is attracting anti-harris support. Recently, however, the NDP have been making a showing, and if this is going to to detract from any party's voters, it is the liberals.
06/01/99 lrs Email: skoog@golden.net
in three way races- feel Tory who is well known will slip through

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Last Updated 2nd June 1999

© 1999 Milton Chan, University of Waterloo
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