Richmond Hill

	BAUER, WALTER
	BILY, IGOR
	COLETTA, MARCO
	MORIDI, REZA
	WAI, DAISY

Incumbent(s):

	Richmond Hill    Hon Reza Moridi    (95.91% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions
	Thornhill    Gila Martow    (4.09% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions

Reference:

Population (2011):			108658
2014 Election Result: Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton
		17305	48.16%
		12842	35.74%
		4055	11.28%
		1166	3.25%
	OTHERS	567	1.58%
	Total Transposed	35936
	Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed
	Richmond Hill
		16713
		12214
		3914
		1121
	Others	538
	Total Transposed	34500
	Thornhill
		592
		628
		141
		46
	Others	29
	Total Transposed	1436
Federal Election Result (2015):
		Majid Jowhari
		23032	46.90%
		Michael Parsa
		21275	43.30%
		Adam DeVita
		3950	8.00%
		Gwendolyn Veenema
		856	1.70%

	25/05/2018	Demarcoa 192.0.165.46
PCs are likely to win this seat. The liberals don't have much of an advantage here and are getting kind of... desperate.
	5/24/2018	Dr. Bear 184.175.13.231
I don't see why Richmond Hill is TCTC and Newmarket-Aurora is not. Both have similar vote distributions in 2014 and I would expect the same in 2018. I doubt the presence of Christine Elliott will get people in NWMKT-Aurora will get people out in droves, relative to Richmond Hill. I say both go PC by equal margins.
	23/05/2018	BryanB 72.141.17.228
If signs on private lawns are any indication of support, the Liberal candidate is well in the lead, at least in my area of Richmond Hill (Ward 2 municipally). The NDP has signs on the public boulevards, but I haven't seen any on private property yet. Still, I don't think this makes a Liberal win here inevitable by any means. Too close to call.
	21/05/2018	MF 69.159.85.209
While Moridi may be respected, it's very difficult to see him surviving in this climate. The federal Conservatives got over 40% here during Trudeau's red wave and the NDP have no chance in Richmond Hill. York Region's 'new money' demographic is very Ford-compatible. So Moridi may do well 'considering the circumstances' but that's not going to be enough.
	01/05/2018	BryanB 72.141.17.228
Daisy Wai, the Progressive Conservative candidate, is already campaigning hard, with phone calls and printed flyers arriving at the house before the end of April. Her policies seem vague and even contradictory, but there is bound to be a lot of support for her in the vote. The NDP has never been much of a factor in Richmond Hill, and the Liberal incumbent remains fairly popular, but I think Richmond Hill will be a toss-up this time.
	22/04/2018	A.S. 99.225.48.35
Even if Moridi's well-regarded within caucus, it's hard to see him as invulnerable, particularly given the federal Conservative overperformance that few would have foreseen. Maybe the most critical thing is what started to bear itself out provincially in 2014 and then federally in 2015: the east-of-Bayview affluent Chinese demos which once would have been solid Chretien/Martin Liberal have been trending in a Tory blue direction--and the Tories have an ethnically compatible candidate. Of course, with the Persian diaspora centred upon Yonge, Moridi's no slouch in the 'ethnic compatibility' department, either...
	23/02/2018	Globe 99.231.234.73
This riding is dominated by a very active Persian community. Moridi has been a three-time MPP and two-time cabinet minister and well respected in this riding. The previous federal election is not a good measure; Both candidates were Persian and the Conservative candidate was a well-known activist, and still lost. This riding will remain Liberal unless they completely collapse.
	02/02/2018	Dr.Bear 204.187.20.95
And....they shot themselves in the foot... Well, truth be told, the few polls that have come out after the whole Brown debacle have shown that voters have not really been swayed much. Almost as if there is a wait and see sentiment. Now depending on who the PC's pick as a leader, that will largely determine who will win this seat. My opinion is that if one of the two lady candidates come out ahead, this will turn blue.
	17/12/2017	M. Lunn 174.7.110.151
Will probably go whichever way the province as a whole votes, but considering the Liberals only won this by 3% last federal election and most polls show the PCs in front, this looks ripe for a PC pickup unless they shoot themselves in the foot.