Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Parkdale-High Park

Prediction Changed
2018-05-17 08:55:00

Constituency Profile









    Parkdale-High Park
   Cheri DiNovo

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):105103

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

17841 39.56%
5787 12.83%
18385 40.77%
2479 5.50%
OTHERS 601 1.33%
Total Transposed 45093

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Parkdale-High Park

Total Transposed45093

Federal Election Result (2015):

Arif Virani
Peggy Nash **
Ian Allen
Adam Phipps
Mark Jeftovic
Terry Parker
Lorne Gershuny
Carol Royer


03/06/2018 Fawer
Bhutila will likely hold this for NDP. Looks like other Parties gave up on this riding focusing on closer battles across the GTA.
21/05/2018 Innocent bystander
Campaign Research poll of Toronto has NDP up 47 - 26 - 21 on Liberals and PCs in Parkdale-High Park. It's a small sample size, but a 21 point lead is a lot.
NDP leading in Toronto 38% to the Tories 34%
5/16/2018 SwanseaTO
I went to the all candidates meeting hosted by the Parkdale Tenants the other night and it was clear that the NDP candidate Bhutila Karpoche was the winner. She knew far more than the other candidates and seemed to have many more connections to the whole riding (not just Parkdale). The polls are up for the NDP as a whole, and with Karpoche as their candidate, the NDP is sure to hold this seat.
15/05/2018 Stevo
No way that this should still be considered TCTC. Never say never, but with the anti-Ford vote coalescing around the NDP (the trend has been observed now in several different polls, not just a one-off), the Liberals will be desperately trying to maintain official party status. Picking up new seats, like this one, isn't in the cards.
13/05/2018 MF
With the NDP increasingly looking like the main "progressive" option in this election, I feel pretty confident changing my prediction from "probably NDP" to near certainty. I expect them to win this by a comfortable margin. Bhutila Karpoche will be the first Tibetan Canadian to serve at Queen's Park.
09/05/2018 Innocent bystander
Finally a fresh Toronto poll. Old Toronto, compared to 2014:
Liberals -14
PCs +7
NDP +3.5
Something of a mystery to me how this is TCTC instead of an NDP hold.
08/05/2018 Danny
Surprised this is still labelled too close to call. This was a close race in 2014 but polling is significantly better for the ONDP this time in Toronto. Liberals have bigger fish to fry in TO to hold on to what they have. This should be an easy hold.
Pollara poll shows the NDP at 30%...This riding will be a hold
04/05/2018 Parkdale Pollster
A guy I used to date, who volunteers for the NDP candidate, says they did a poll on Tuesday and the PC's are tied with the Liberals in Parkdale High Park. Apparently the PC candidate speaks Ukrainian or is married to a Ukrainian and she knows everyone. The NDP are a close second/third. I was thinking about the whole Trump phenomenon and wondered what would happen if Ford had one of those big rallies right in the heart of Parkdale... I think it would be crowded and the PC candidate would get lots of votes... My prediction is PC by a smidge...
01/05/2018 Educated voter
This is going to be a very close race between NDP and Liberals, but I think the NDP is going to hold onto this riding because Peggy nash supporters are very well known in the riding, and they will support their NDP Candidate.
28/04/2018 PY
Swansea is likely where PC support exists at this point. Parkdale and High Park themselves have gone through generational and cultural shifts which won't work in the party's favour. Also, the old families that lived in either of those areas and supported Shea have either died or long since retired away from the riding, with their children having no ties at all (or minimal ones as landlords of their childhood homes while they live elsewhere).
I'm absolutely clueless regarding the inner workings of the ONDP's central campaign, but it seems to me like they've gone all-in with Bhutila Karpoche; whenever the EA or CA of the retired/outgoing MPP is appointed, selected, elected or acclaimed as a candidate, the party feels there's a legitimate shot at retaining the seat. If the candidate is the president of the EDA, then it'll tend to be more of a crapshoot.
However, most of the chatter that I've heard from friends who live throughout the riding has been about Nadia Guerrera for the Liberals and the sentiment potentially becoming more of an 'Anybody but Ford' one rather than an anti-Wynne one. If that ends up becoming the case, Guerrera's the likely electoral beneficiary.
On the other hand, if the overall Liberal campaign goes south, where will the disillusioned hardcore and soft supporters go? In my experience dealing with the former, they're hard-pressed to come up with a response; when they do, it tends to be the Greens, with staying home being their second choice (though I was once was asked 'Do the Rhinos still exist?' in reply). As for the soft Liberals in this scenario, it'll depend on how well Andrea Horwath does during the campaign. If she's seen as being unable to get over the hump this time around, then those votes will mostly evaporate, with the odd few going Green or even to the NOTA, leaving only a sliver that will gravitate towards Nadia Guerrera. A stronger campaign from Horwath might help Bhutila Karpoche's cause, but only if she's able to step up her own game regardless.
Otherwise, the edge is with Nadia Guerrera.
28/04/2018 Innocent bystander
The Liberals won The 6ix by 26 points in 2014; now they're running third, down 43%.
Easy NDP hold.
The Liberal vote is collapsing and moving to the NDP to stop Ford
25/04/2018 Happy Warrior
The Ontario PC candidate looks interesting. His name is Adam Pham and he has an unusual website and life story. The High Park area is done with Liberals and I think the Parkdale side of the riding will give just enough to Doug Ford that the PC's have a new chance here. Look for a PC upset if the trend continues and the Liberals lose more ground.
15/04/2018 Willowdale Girl
This is the riding I spent most of my life in.It used to be a swing riding,federally competitive between the Liberals and Conservatives and provincially between the Liberals and NDP.Now more of Parkdale has been included in the provincial riding.There is an ethnic mix in the riding,not just one ethnic group that has to be considered.The previous Liberal candidate will not be running again and neither will the NDP provincial incumbent. And the NDP federal incumbent lost her job in
the last federal election.So you have a federal Liberal incumbent helping the provincial Liberal candidate. The NDP incumbents from all three levels of government have been successful in working together during election campaigns and now they can't do that as successfully.
05/04/2018 Kyle H
'Look at so and so's win in 95!!!'
Couple things, bud.
1. That was quite literally over 20 years ago.
2. Not the same riding. That was High Park-Swansea, which yes did go PC, surely on the back of a strong PC result in High Park; *this* riding is PARKDALE-High Park. Guess which one of those community names will ensure there will be no weird PC-split here. In 1999 when this riding was formed, it flipped so hard to Gerard Kennedy I'm pretty sure Shea would've had whiplash had they chosen to run.
As to 2018 - maybe, probably NDP, but we'll see where Horwath's blue Dipperism gets her this year.
25/03/2018 MF
Not Non-Partisan: It's been a long time since vote splits have been good for the Tories. Even when the federal Conservatives won a majority government, they were stuck at a distant 15% in Parkdale-High Park.
Even the '95 analogy fails as the Tories would not have won then under today's Parkdale-High Park boundaries.
Over the past 15-20 years, the Conservatives have been a non-factor. There are far more Liberal/NDP vote-switchers in P-HP than Liberal/Tory ones. This is a very progressive riding.
22/03/2018 Not Non-Partisan
Hey MF. Where do you think disaffected Liberals are going while Wynne shifts to the left. Certainly not further left. The split here is often very good for the Tories. Look at the Rev. Canon Derwyn Shea's victory in '95.
20/03/2018 MF
With Cheri DiNovo leaving, Parkdale-High Park can go either NDP or Liberal. There is a very strong base of support for the NDP in the riding; as previously noted, Peggy Nash lost by the narrowest margin of all defeated Toronto NDP MPs in 2015). However the leftward shift of Kathleen Wynne and strategic voting could put the Liberals over the top. Ford of course has no appeal in this very progressive urban riding.
17/03/2018 A.S.
Cheri DiNovo's too sui generis for her departure to be any indicator of a party not doing well--and another thing to remember: even in defeat, Peggy Nash came closer to hanging on than any federal New Democrat in Toronto (more so than either Andrew Cash or Craig Scott). For better or worse, unabashed NDP progressivism has succeeded in being weirdly beloved in P-HP--keeping in mind that as recently as 1995, the former High Park-Swansea elected a Tory (Derwyn Shea). Still, it *is* an open seat, and as much as hearts may bleed, one can only be prudent in predicting anything at this point--after all, neither Guerrera nor Karpoche are presently household names, even if the latter has 'constituency office advantage'. All one can say is that it'll all be far, far from the Doug Ford circus...
13/03/2018 Demarcoa
This is going to stay with the NDP. The LPO is not in a position to be making gains like this. Dissatisfaction is exactly enough to tilt a close race like this towards NDP.
18/01/2018 D.A.
Simply impossible to predict if it'll be red or orange...
This will be Stalingrad. Door to door, street to street, neighbourhood to neighbourhood hand to hand political combat...
Libs: Can pick it up, and have long coveted it. Their entire grand strategy rests on taking it (qualitatively mobilizing their base while attracting lots of NDP votes)
NDP: If they can't hold on to this their irrelevance will continue.. Need to really fight for it.
Cheri DiNovo leaving is an indication to me that the NDP isn't faring well..
15/01/2018 R.O.
This riding is a big test for the ndp. I think the ndp would have had a better chance holding the riding in a by election scenario. and if they had won that would of allowed new mpp a chance to build some profile in the riding . but since Dinovo stayed longer they have to hold it during a general election and that could prove more challenging.
2017-12-26 Craig
Given how close this riding was in 2014, the federal results in 2015 and the retirement of Cheri DiNovo, I think this is the easiest Liberal pickup in Ontario, and perhaps one of the only pickup opportunities. Without DiNovo, they would have certainly won this seat in 2014.
Condos keep going up and gentrification continues here, and those voters tend to support Kathleen Wynne even if her province-wide approval is horrendous, as she is more suited to urban progressives than Andrea Horwath. The PC's are also a non-factor here and may actually finish below the Greens, but that doesn't mean that the ?strategic voting? factor can't come into play either. For those reasons, I think this flips red, even if they lose province-wide.
21/12/2017 Gabbith
Since this election is shaping up as anything-but-Wynne, I think the NDP will be safe here as they already hold it. I wonder what factor DiNovo retiring will have, though.
21/12/2017 ML
Too close to call. Both the Liberal and NDP candidates look very impressive. The Liberals nearly defeated high profile Cheri Di Novo in 2014 with the threat of a Hudak government. However, with Patrick Brown's apparent shift to the centre I'm not sure if there will be as much strategic voting in 2018. A big question mark will be how strong the PC campaign is, and whether or not the PCs can pick away Liberal votes in more wealthy pockets of the riding around Bloor West and Humber.
20/12/2017 seasaw
With Cheri DiNovo not running this time and the PC's having no chance in this riding, it makes it ripe for the picking for the Liberals. We have to wait and see how the campaign is turning out. If it's a close contest between the Liberals and the PC's then, it'll be a Liberal gain. If the Liberals are well ahead, NDP will keep it, they will probably keep if the PC's are well ahead as well, it's kind of weird, but it's true
Bhutila Karpoche is the favourite in this race. She has served as Cheri DiNovo's Executive Assistant for years and has deep ties to the riding through the Tibetan community. She is also already out there campaigning and showing up at every community event.

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