Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014

Parkdale-High Park

Prediction Changed
2014-06-06 08:18:00

Constituency Profile


Dinovo, Cheri

Ellerton, Jamie

Leblanc, Nancy

Rudkins, Timothy

Vezina, Matthew

Weissenberger, Redmond

Cheri DiNovo


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Parkdale-High Park)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 11 PrognosticationPete
    Kathleen Wynne came to the riding today, the last day of the campaign, to campaign for Liberal candidate Nancy Leblanc. That says a lot about what their internals are showing.
    Meanwhile, Cheri DiNovo is running away from Andrea Horwath, and the feeling is mutual -- Horwath hasn't gone within a country mile of PHP.
    DiNovo has her fans and her detractors, and the numbers show she has never run away with this riding. The reports of NDP switchers going Liberal aren't a myth -- it's very real on the ground here.
    Will it be enough to flip this riding? Maybe. Turnout will tell the tale. I call it Liberal in a coin flip. But it's gonna be close.
    14 06 10 Stewy
    Based on polls in the last 48 hrs., NDP has surged a bit. Libs will win election but this seat should stay with DiNovo. And she deserves it. Popular and works tirelessly as most progressive force at Queens Park.
    14 06 08 Adam T
    I think this riding needs to be changed from NDP to 'Too close to call'... Cheri DiNovo is an amazing representative and well liked by many within the riding, however NDP support seems to be bleeding to the Liberals, especially in Toronto. Also, when I attended an all candidates debate one question was asked to Cheri about Andrea Horwath's decision to vote the budget down in a fairly critical tone... a good segment of the audience erupted in applause. Cheri kind of dodged the question, but you could see the discomfort on her face. I think if enough dippers vote strategically in the riding, Nancy could prevail. My gut tells me the NDP will be left with only one seat in Toronto come June 13th and it won't be Parkdale-High Park.
    14 06 02 Marco Ricci
    This riding is not as vulnerable for the NDP as Trinity-Spadina or Davenport, but it is now less secure than it was at the start of the campaign, which is a surprise I did not expect. Two new polls were released today - one from Abacus & one from EKOS. Both show NDP support down, and the Liberals way ahead in the 416 with the NDP a distant 3rd. Eg. Abacus has OLP at 49, PC at 25, NDP at 17 for Toronto. EKOS has similar numbers for the 416 - 47 OLP, 24 PC, 20 NDP. We won't know until Election Night what happens, but it's beginning to look like DiNovo wants to distance herself from Horwath.
    14 06 01 WL
    Most of the recent polling shows NDP rising and Liberals fading. Why then would a well-liked candidate like Di Novo lose to a new and largely unknown Liberal candidate. It wasn't close last time and I think Di Novo has more than enough cushion to pull this off.
    14 05 30 R.O.
    This is a core ndp riding as its been ndp since they won it in by election several years ago . it had been liberal before as Gerald Kennedy held this riding during the late 90's . I think its still more likely the ndp will hold such a riding than liberals gain it at this point in time . you have to remember that polls for Toronto/416 include many ridings where the ndp gets 10% or less like Etobicoke Lakeshore . its seems to me doubtful they will not keep this one . but I still agree it's a riding that under right circumstances and candidates could go liberal .
    14 05 24 Marco Ricci
    I think Cheri DiNovo may still have the edge because of incumbency and recent voting patterns, but some of the current polling and seat projection analysis by Eric Grenier is beginning to show that this seat could see a shift to the Liberals. This did used to be Gerard Kennedy's seat, and Cortney Pasternak came closer to DiNovo than expected in 2011. So probably still leaning NDP, but no longer a sure bet.
    14 05 30 R.O.
    This is a core ndp riding as its been ndp since they won it in by election several years ago . it had been liberal before as Gerald Kennedy held this riding during the late 90's . I think its still more likely the ndp will hold such a riding than liberals gain it at this point in time . you have to remember that polls for Toronto/416 include many ridings where the ndp gets 10% or less like Etobicoke Lakeshore . its seems to me doubtful they will not keep this one . but I still agree it's a riding that under right circumstances and candidates could go liberal .
    14 05 25 Arden
    Local polls are very accurate due to their better 'capture' of a single region as opposed to a much larger area. Those results alone should be enough to spell Liberal victory. So yeah, I wouldn't be expecting that 28 point gap to be closing any time soon...
    14 05 24 Gloria
    This is a swing riding, and this riding has in the past gone with the winners. Gerard Kennedy did a lot of damage to the Liberals in this area.
    14 05 22 seasaw
    I have to respectfully disagree with nearly all other posters here. the polls are pointing to a Liberal victory, however, those same polls show Liberal support droping in suburban and rural areas, but strengthening in the city core. The last time Pasternack came close, this time Leblanc will win close.
    14 05 22 Alice
    This is going to be a Liberal pickup. I know Cheri Di Novo is a strong incumbent but the NDP is on the brink in Toronto. Wynne is capturing huge amounts of support across the city. This is going to be an upset.
    14 05 22 DL
    Since the NDP is polling badly in the old Toronto 416 areas, and many of the NDP, that have traditionally voted for them seem to be pissed off at Andrea Horwath, expect a slightly closer margin for the Liberals in this riding. However, Di Novo will probably win in the end, because of once again the Liberals in this riding seem to be lacking resources, a lack of volunteers. But Di Novo might be beginning to be biting her nails or pulling her hair at this point for how close this is and that it should be a total blowout if it wasn't for Horwath and the direction Horwath is taking the party in. Horwath has left Di Novo to practically fend or herself at this point.
    14 05 07 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    Cheri DiNovo is popular in Parkdale-High Park. I say she survives even if the NDP loses seats in Toronto under Andrea Horwath's leadership.
    14 05 04 monkey
    Cheri diNova is well liked here and this is a progressive riding that generally leans NDP so I could only see it going Liberal if Gerard Kennedy (who is well liked here) ran, but he isn't.
    14 03 29 Frank
    I think Cheri will easily re-take the riding. She is well known, visible and as been gaining momentum with some solid wins. It would be nice to hear something from the NDP in support of collective bargaining and against the anti-labour rhetoric. Sitting on the fence hasn't won them the support they have been hoping for...
    13 09 14 A.S.
    Thanks in part to Kathleen Wynne's brilliant stewarding of the O-Grits' Toronto team effort, what should have been a post-Orange Crush romp for Di Novo turned into a scare, with at least one mid-election poll showing Pasternak ahead--and now Wynne is premier, so if *any* non-byelected NDP seats should be in danger from the Grits, it's the picking-up-where-2011-left-off Toronto ones, right? Except that the most qualified potential contender, Gerard Kennedy, bombed in the leadership race and now appears to be off-radar. Cartainly, there's still a chance of an upset, particularly if Wynne holds her own and the NDP don't advance much if any beyond their 2011 numbers--but the further we get from a Wynne honeymoon period, the less likely that becomes.
    13 09 14
    I somehow can't see this one turning liberal. Along with the beaches and Toronto-Danforth this one will stay NDP. Gerard Kennedy won't run here again for fear of being a 'four-time loser'. Cheri Dinovo is quite popular here and will very likely keep her seat, even with Wynne's popularity in Toronto.
    13 06 18 AD
    The Liberals might be able to do better this election (although I can't see why) but even if they did I doubt it would be enough to take the riding away from the NDP. And there are so many factors supporting the NDP here. Let's see:
    1. Incumbency advantage (this advantage is very real and very likely to buoy NDP votes with DiNovo seeking re-election)
    2. DiNovo seems generally popular with both the riding and in general. Always useful.
    3. The riding has been with the NDP for ten years now. Sure, trends like these don't last indefinitely, but they are informative.
    4. Resources, volunteers, and even funding is likely to favour NDP in this particular riding. They did last election.
    So, barring extraneous events, this riding looks like a pretty safe NDP hold to me.
    13 05 15 DL
    The Liberals interestingly did quite well in this riding last time, running a candidate that isn't very known in Parkdale High Park in Cortney Pasternak. Her election campaign didn't have many volunteers and lack resources. But she made gains in the percentage of votes for the Liberals last time and made the results closer than what many thought. Meanwhile, Di Novo had much more resources and volunteers. It be interesting to see if the Liberals and N.D.P had the same amount of volunteers and resources in a election and what the results would be. This riding still isn't a safe riding for the N.D.P and can still be taken by the Liberals.
    13 04 08 AR
    This is going NDP... In the last legislative session, Cheri proved to be a very effective legislator, as usual, working across party lines to enact a rather historic bill... Cheri is very adept at doing the good work that politicians can do when they work to make change real, ego's and party lines aside... The people of Parkdale High Park appreciate that and will show their support on election day!
    13 04 06 DG
    Should be another solid victory for Cheri DiNovo - the Liberals still are dragging their feet when it comes to allocating funds to electrify the Union-Pearson express train that runs along the eastern part of the riding.
    13 04 06 Bill Stewart
    Not really sure why this riding has a ? Seems to me the only unknown is which Liberal candidate the NDP incumbent, Cheri DiNovo, will beat.
    DiNovo has successively increased her share of the popular vote. She has held prestigious positions within her party such as Deputy Speaker and Party Whip. She is among the most hard working and respected parliamentarians at Queen's Park.
    DiNovo has spearheaded unique programs such as Girl's Government - an annual program that picks grades 8 girls from schools across the riding to become politically engaged, to participate in model parliaments, and to meet and ask questions of the politicians.
    Moreover, DiNovo has been incredibly effective at bringing forward legislation which has all party approval because she is widely respected and trusted by all parties. Most notably, through sheer determination and extremely difficult negotiations she succeeded finally in getting all party support for adding gender identity to our Ontario's Human Rights Code to ensure that trans people are protected from discrimination.
    This was a move recently copied at the federal level and never would have come to pass had DiNovo not managed to succeed in Ontario first.
    I would say this is a pretty safe seat for DiNovo- regardless of whom the Liberals nominate, including Gerard Kennedy whose political capital has been virtually liquidated in this riding (with a resounding loss to Peggy Nash in 2011, and a dismal run at the Ontario Liberal leadership).
    13 05 03 mayuus@gmail.com
    This is an interesting swing riding. Last time the Liberals ran a former journalist who does not live in the riding as a candidate and surprisingly she did quite well. I wonder how they would do if they ran someone who is better known.
    13 03 15 kingstonstudent
    Most Toronto NDP MPPs had a close shave last time due to resurgent Liberal popularity/anti-Hudak sentiment. With the NDP gaining at the expense of the Liberals in almost every poll, this one should be fairly safe for Cheri DiNovo.

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