Hamilton Centre

	ANASTASIOU, MARIA
	CAMPBELL, MARY ELLEN
	DUNCAN, DIONNE
	HORWATH, ANDREA
	LEMMA, TONY
	LOPEZ, JASON
	PIKE, DEIRDRE
	YOUNG, ROBERT

Incumbent(s):

	Hamilton Centre    Andrea Horwath    (90.25% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions
	Hamilton East-Stoney Creek    Paul Miller    (9.75% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions

Reference:

Population (2011):			101932
2014 Election Result: Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton
		6532	21.93%
		3773	12.67%
		16248	54.56%
		2741	9.20%
	OTHERS	489	1.64%
	Total Transposed	29782
	Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed
	Hamilton Centre
		5840
		3321
		14326
		2549
	Others	427
	Total Transposed	26463
	Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
		692
		452
		1921
		192
	Others	61
	Total Transposed	3319
Federal Election Result (2015):
		David Christopherson **
		18719	45.60%
		Anne Tennier
		13718	33.40%
		Yonatan Rozenszajn
		6018	14.60%
		Ute Schmid-Jones
		1778	4.30%
		Michael James Baldasaro
		348	0.80%
		Rob Young
		316	0.80%
		Maria Anastasiou
		186	0.50%
			0.50%

	20/05/2018	jeff316 108.161.115.110
More Pike signs shouldn't really surprise - Hamilton Centre has been subject to a three-year influx of urban yuppies. They're white-collar, Liberal-aligned voters from ridings like Davenport, St. Paul's, Parkdale, YSW - people with money and a social conscience that's assuaged by candidates like Wynne and Pike. The thing for Pike is she may have had a shot in an NDP rout, but even if the NDP loses its momentum (which I think they will) she'll have a hard time unseating Andrea.
	18/05/2018	The Jackal 99.237.125.239
With Howarth looking to be the official opposition or even Premier she is very safe here. She is by far the safest of all the party leaders.
	15/05/2018	Dr. Bear 45.72.146.253
Interesting to note the number of signs for Deirdre Pike. Many more than I would expect. Horwath signs still out number Pike signs 3:1 (and nary a PC sign anywhere) but I didn't expect to see so many so soon. True they could be friends of the candidate or dye-in-the-wool liberals. Curious though.
	23/04/2018	Stevo 165.225.76.116
As David Christopherson's recent dissent of the federal Liberals' discriminatory summer jobs anti-abortion diktat shows, Hamilton-Centre is quite a ways away, philosophically, from the champagne socialist ridings like Toronto-Danforth. Helps to explain why Horwath NDP is as competitive against Ford as it is against Wynne.
	15/04/2018	A.S. 99.225.48.35
I feel that to read white supremacist marches as a foretelling of the PCs in second is stretching it--not because it's unlikely; but quite contrarily, the Tories don't need any such foretelling. This is Hamilton Centre, not Davenport: the Libs are already in the basement here, so it wouldn't take much to overtake them, gentrification or no gentrification. (Though ironically, it's the blue-collar East End that's presently likelier to buoy the second-place Tories than the Locke-i-fied western polls. But hey; Hamilton Centre's got no more Mountain polls, so Andrea has it all the more in the bag, all the same..)
	26/03/2018	Dr.Bear 204.187.20.95
Interesting developments here in the activist sphere, that I think will swell during the election. We all have heard of anarchists trashing affluent shops on Locke Street a few weeks back. Yesterday there was a white supremacist march/protest, followed by an anarchist counter-protest. Saw a huge fight break out amongst them near our house. Why am I bringing this up? Because right-wing populists, like Ford, tend to dredge up the white supremacists, and that there is anti-establishment angst is Hamilton. Not that the NDP will lose this seat, but I think the PCs will pull a surprising second.
	22/03/2018	MF 69.158.152.4
One of the safest NDP seats around. Andrea Horwath ain't losing her seat.
	19/03/2018	jeff316 69.165.157.213
Pike well known? Maybe only to Liberal party insiders that put out the press release.
	02/02/2018	seasaw 99.225.244.232
I agree with Craig that this is the easiest to predict and the safest of all party leader's seats. This will probably be Andrea Horwath's last run as well, unless of course she becomes premier. Though the demographics and the boundaries have changed, we have to remember that the Liberals have won this riding before, Domenic Agostino, Lilly Odie Munroe and Sheila Copps all represented huge chunks of this riding, the Liberals will win this riding again sometime, but not this time
	2017-12-26	Craig 24.213.108.184
Of the three main party leaders, Horwath likely has the safest seat. Although Hamilton is changing, it is still primarily working class and more suited to Horwath than Wynne, and the PC's are not a factor here. She is well liked enough here that she would likely stay on as MPP even if she resigns as NDP leader if they don't at least become Official Opposition in June. That said, in the future, overflow of Toronto housing and condos into Hamilton may change the demographics and give the Liberals a chance here. That is at least one or two elections away though.
	18/12/2017	Dr.Bear 75.119.248.107
I live in this riding part time and it is certainly changing. I suspect that in electionprediction-go-rounds to come, this riding will become competitive for the Liberals as gentrification continues, sky-rise condos go up, and Torontonians move in. For now, the NDP still have a solid hold and Andrea Howarth is still very popular. Rather dull race now, but I suspect it could be a better talking point in the 2019 federal election.
	13/12/2017	M. Lunn 174.7.110.151
Andrea Howarth will probably have a tough time even forming official opposition let alone becoming premier, but she is wildly popular here, so will not only win her seat, but probably by the biggest margins of the three leaders. Working class makes her left wing populism quite popular here as opposed to downtown Toronto which is more your left wing elitist champagne socialist while this is your left wing blue collar populist riding.
	03/12/2017	Insight 99.229.207.55
Andrea may not (and will likely not) be the next Premier of Ontario, but she will have no trouble holding on to her Hamilton seat.