Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018

Hamilton Centre

Prediction Changed
2017-12-03 21:51:00

Constituency Profile











    Hamilton Centre
   Andrea Horwath

   (90.25% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions
    Hamilton East-Stoney Creek
   Paul Miller

   (9.75% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):101932

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

6532 21.93%
3773 12.67%
16248 54.56%
2741 9.20%
OTHERS 489 1.64%
Total Transposed 29782

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed

    Hamilton Centre

Total Transposed26463

     Hamilton East-Stoney Creek

Total Transposed3319

Federal Election Result (2015):

David Christopherson **
Anne Tennier
Yonatan Rozenszajn
Ute Schmid-Jones
Michael James Baldasaro
Rob Young
Maria Anastasiou


20/05/2018 jeff316
More Pike signs shouldn't really surprise - Hamilton Centre has been subject to a three-year influx of urban yuppies. They're white-collar, Liberal-aligned voters from ridings like Davenport, St. Paul's, Parkdale, YSW - people with money and a social conscience that's assuaged by candidates like Wynne and Pike. The thing for Pike is she may have had a shot in an NDP rout, but even if the NDP loses its momentum (which I think they will) she'll have a hard time unseating Andrea.
18/05/2018 The Jackal
With Howarth looking to be the official opposition or even Premier she is very safe here. She is by far the safest of all the party leaders.
15/05/2018 Dr. Bear
Interesting to note the number of signs for Deirdre Pike. Many more than I would expect. Horwath signs still out number Pike signs 3:1 (and nary a PC sign anywhere) but I didn't expect to see so many so soon. True they could be friends of the candidate or dye-in-the-wool liberals. Curious though.
23/04/2018 Stevo
As David Christopherson's recent dissent of the federal Liberals' discriminatory summer jobs anti-abortion diktat shows, Hamilton-Centre is quite a ways away, philosophically, from the champagne socialist ridings like Toronto-Danforth. Helps to explain why Horwath NDP is as competitive against Ford as it is against Wynne.
15/04/2018 A.S.
I feel that to read white supremacist marches as a foretelling of the PCs in second is stretching it--not because it's unlikely; but quite contrarily, the Tories don't need any such foretelling. This is Hamilton Centre, not Davenport: the Libs are already in the basement here, so it wouldn't take much to overtake them, gentrification or no gentrification. (Though ironically, it's the blue-collar East End that's presently likelier to buoy the second-place Tories than the Locke-i-fied western polls. But hey; Hamilton Centre's got no more Mountain polls, so Andrea has it all the more in the bag, all the same..)
26/03/2018 Dr.Bear
Interesting developments here in the activist sphere, that I think will swell during the election. We all have heard of anarchists trashing affluent shops on Locke Street a few weeks back. Yesterday there was a white supremacist march/protest, followed by an anarchist counter-protest. Saw a huge fight break out amongst them near our house. Why am I bringing this up? Because right-wing populists, like Ford, tend to dredge up the white supremacists, and that there is anti-establishment angst is Hamilton. Not that the NDP will lose this seat, but I think the PCs will pull a surprising second.
22/03/2018 MF
One of the safest NDP seats around. Andrea Horwath ain't losing her seat.
19/03/2018 jeff316
Pike well known? Maybe only to Liberal party insiders that put out the press release.
02/02/2018 seasaw
I agree with Craig that this is the easiest to predict and the safest of all party leader's seats. This will probably be Andrea Horwath's last run as well, unless of course she becomes premier. Though the demographics and the boundaries have changed, we have to remember that the Liberals have won this riding before, Domenic Agostino, Lilly Odie Munroe and Sheila Copps all represented huge chunks of this riding, the Liberals will win this riding again sometime, but not this time
2017-12-26 Craig
Of the three main party leaders, Horwath likely has the safest seat. Although Hamilton is changing, it is still primarily working class and more suited to Horwath than Wynne, and the PC's are not a factor here. She is well liked enough here that she would likely stay on as MPP even if she resigns as NDP leader if they don't at least become Official Opposition in June.
That said, in the future, overflow of Toronto housing and condos into Hamilton may change the demographics and give the Liberals a chance here. That is at least one or two elections away though.
18/12/2017 Dr.Bear
I live in this riding part time and it is certainly changing. I suspect that in electionprediction-go-rounds to come, this riding will become competitive for the Liberals as gentrification continues, sky-rise condos go up, and Torontonians move in. For now, the NDP still have a solid hold and Andrea Howarth is still very popular. Rather dull race now, but I suspect it could be a better talking point in the 2019 federal election.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
Andrea Howarth will probably have a tough time even forming official opposition let alone becoming premier, but she is wildly popular here, so will not only win her seat, but probably by the biggest margins of the three leaders. Working class makes her left wing populism quite popular here as opposed to downtown Toronto which is more your left wing elitist champagne socialist while this is your left wing blue collar populist riding.
03/12/2017 Insight
Andrea may not (and will likely not) be the next Premier of Ontario, but she will have no trouble holding on to her Hamilton seat.

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