Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill

	ALAM, ABU
	BARSKY, MARGARITA
	BUTYLKIN, JANUSZ
	DESILVA, SANTIAGO AMESH
	DUNCAN, STEPHANIE NICOLE
	KOROVITSYN, SERGE
	PARSA, MICHAEL
	SALE, KATRINA
	YAQUBIAN, NAHEED

Incumbent(s):

	Oak Ridges-Markham    Hon Helena Jaczek    (52.73% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions
	Richmond Hill    Hon Reza Moridi    (23.95% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions
	Newmarket-Aurora    Hon Chris Ballard    (23.32% of voters in new riding)    2014/2008 Predictions

Reference:

Population (2011):			106064
2014 Election Result: Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton
		15758	45.72%
		13136	38.11%
		3629	10.53%
		1195	3.47%
	OTHERS	747	2.17%
	Total Transposed	34464
	Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed
	Oak Ridges-Markham
		7878
		5887
		1910
		560
	Others	398
	Total Transposed	16633
	Newmarket-Aurora
		4138
		3921
		936
		413
	Others	215
	Total Transposed	9623
	Richmond Hill
		3742
		3328
		783
		222
	Others	133
	Total Transposed	8208
Federal Election Result (2015):
Federal Election Result (2015):
		Leona Alleslev
		24132	47.30%
		Costas Menegakis **
		23039	45.20%
		Brenda Power
		2912	5.70%
		Randi Ramdeen
		654	1.30%
		Kyle Bowles
		243	0.50%

	09/05/2018	Laurence Putnam 50.92.139.181
The home of Frank Klees in good ol' 905 suburbia in an election where the Tories are outpolling the Liberals by 15 points...if CNN was covering this the way they do American elections, they would project this one for the PC's the minute the polls closed.
	07/04/2018	A.S. 99.225.48.35
Correction/clarification: Parsa didn't almost federally win *this* riding, but Richmond Hill next door (which was all the more of an achievement, given how he wasn't an incumbent and the numbers should have given the Liberals greater favour there). And while the Liberal candidate here may be inexperienced, for the sake of argument let's be fair here; this is one of as many as *four* ridings that can claim to be successors to the amorphous (and amorphously growing) former Oak Ridges-Markham, so newbieness isn't altogether to be unexpected. (Degrees thereof, though...)
	04/04/2018	Dr.Bear 204.187.20.95
No disagreement here. With the abysmal poll numbers for the Liberals in the 905, this will easily swing to the PCs.
	22/03/2018	MF 69.158.152.4
A high income, outer suburban McMansion-y high income riding - but not 'elite' in Fordian terms (i.e. a lot more 'successful businessmen' than lawyers, professors and journalists). Pretty low hanging fruit for Ford's PCs.
	21/03/2018	Demarcoa 192.0.154.113
Wow, no disagreement from anyone on this riding. Unless something crazy happens, this is going to be a most likely win for the PC party.
	23/02/2018	Globe 99.231.234.73
Most likely CPC. As others said, Michael Parsa came close to win this riding federally at the time that Trudeau wave was everywhere. The Liberal candidate has no experience and despite being of Persian descent, cannot speak the language and has very little connection to the community. The fact that Liberals chose to run a newbie shows they know they have no chance here.
	08/01/2018	MF 69.159.31.101
This affluent 905 riding should be an easy PC pickup - unless they really screw up their campaign.
	2017-12-26	A BCer 64.180.22.208
Redistribution has given this riding a suburban profile with strong Liberal support from 2014, cutting off the more rural PC areas. That being said, a solid PC candidate, and this riding almost stayed with the Harper Conservatives in 2015 despite a Liberal wipeout in Greater Toronto point to it as a likely PC pick-up.
	21/12/2017	Gabbith 75.98.19.133
Really strong PC candidate here, who also almost held Richmond Hill for the CPC in 2015 despite nearby ridings swinging Liberal. He should win this easily, even if PCs end up in opposition.
	11/12/2017	Andy 99.228.49.27
A PC landslide. Michael Parsa almost won in the 2015 federal election which was a liberal sweep. Now with the OLP brand being unpopular in York Region I predict an easy win.
	08/12/2017	99.228.128.85
PCs will win this seat. The Libs only won this seat federally barely and it was in a Liberal red wave.