Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2014


Prediction Changed
2014-05-13 09:07:00

Constituency Profile


Ballard, Chris

Baxter, Dorian

Duff, Angus

Jenkins, Jason

Roblin, Andrew

Twinney, Jane

Yaciuk, Robert

Frank Klees


  • Pundits’ Guide – Ontario (Newmarket-Aurora)
  • 2011 Provincial Election Prediction
  • 2011 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2008 Federal Election Prediction
  • 2007 Provincial Election Prediction

    2011 Result:

    2007 Result:

    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    14 06 08 Concerned teacher
    This appears to be the tightest race in York Region. The PC's have selected an extremely weak candidate; I attended both debates, and I was embarrassed for her. I don't believe she was able to complete one sentence, even when she was reading her opening and closing statements. Liberal support is clearly stronger in Aurora, and PC support is marginally stronger in Newmarket(the larger city). I think this one will be very close on election night.
    14 06 02 The Jackal
    I think people on this site are overlooking the fact that this has been a traditionally strong PC seat as it has been held more often than by the Tories both provincally and federally. Frank Klees not running again will change that.
    14 05 26 Michael
    The PC nomination split local PC members and left the party with a weak candidate. The Liberals have a good chance without Frank Klees running this time and local PCs divided.
    14 05 22 Steve
    I wouldn't be to quick to call this one for PC's. Check out the 2007 results and how close they were. That was with Klees running. Twinney is a weak candidate and the local PC's are split. This riding isn't as conservative as some would have you believe.
    14 05 19 A.S.
    I'd think of N-A as more 'borderline' than 'naturally PC'; when all is said and done, it was Klees who kept this seat in the Tory fold--had he opted out or elsewhere in 2007, it might have been just another 905 Liberal thing (though you'd have to blame John Tory's maladroit campaign for that in part). The di Muccio thing is what's interesting here--like a 905land version of Doug Ford vis-a-vis Etobicoke North--though I'm not sure whether her deep-sixing will have much more effect than the cloud over Peter Shurman had in the Thornhill byelection. If Hudak tanks worse in '14 than in '11, the seat'll be within reach for Ballard; though even there, I suppose the Grits will be satisfied with a margin more like '07's supermarginal than '11's double-digit gap...
    14 05 19 R.O.
    Frank Klees was well liked in the riding but its still an area that is more likely to go for Ontario pc's than liberals or ndp . more suburban an area than urban and pc's often do well in suburban 905 ridings .
    14 05 18 initial
    Lots of PC signs in Aurora. This riding will definitely remain Conservative.
    14 05 16 George
    After Tim Hudak's issues with popular ex-MPP Frank Klees, and then his subsequent refusal to let prominent Newmarket councilor Maddie di Muccio run to be Klees's successor, many Newmarket-Aurora PCs are disgruntled. It's hard to tell how the grassroots PC voters will feel about Jane Twinney being forced on them. In Aurora councilor Chris Ballard, the Liberals have a terrific candidate. As other commenters have noted, it's a naturally PC riding, but the PCs are certainly acting like they don't want to keep it---Ballard has a real shot.
    14 05 16 MG
    With Klees gone, this riding will vote with the bulk of the rest of York Region and the GTA - Liberal. Chris Ballard is a great candidate who should be able to take it. With the Grits currently leading and Hudak's 100,000 job cuts plan undermining his party's chances, this will be an easy pickup.
    14 05 16 Trinity-Spadina Progressive
    Even with Frank Klees retiring, this is a a well-off exurban area that is pretty naturally supportive of the Tories.
    14 05 03 Teddy Boragina
    Klees is not running. The Tories however do have some history here - holding the area Federally. The new candidate should be able to hold.
    13 06 19 Arden
    Having grown up in this riding, I can pretty safely say this will be a PC hold. Even if Klees doesn't seek re-election, it strikes me as highly unlikely this riding will vote in any other direction, even LPO.
    13 03 02 seasaw
    Klees will win this riding again for the Tories. The margin of victory, though, may be small, but at the end of the day, he'll win, unless of course he decides not to run, in which case, we're going to have to revise this prediction.

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