Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2018


Prediction Changed
2018-04-15 14:54:00

Constituency Profile










   Joe Dickson

   (100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2014/2008 Predictions

Population (2011):109600

2014 Election Result:
Transposition courtesy of Kyle Hutton

20825 51.77%
11471 28.52%
6544 16.27%
1174 2.92%
OTHER 214 0.53%
Total Transposed 40229

Component Riding(s) & Votes Transposed


Total Transposed40229

Federal Election Result (2015):

Mark Holland
Chris Alexander **
Stephanie Brown
Jeff Hill
Bob Kesic


06/06/2018 MF
Is Joe Dickson really that formidable? I have my doubts. Personality popularity matters less in the 905 than in rural and northern ridings and this looks another 45-25-25 PC victory in the 905.
04/06/2018 MS from Durham
I would not write off Joe Dickson. Much as I don't like him personally, he has a very strong personal brand in this riding, and his is the typed of riding that will be helped by Wynne's announcement Saturday. Central campaign not dragging him down, not a strong NDP candidate to split the vote and Rod Phillips seen as a parachute candidate, just moving into the riding to run. I see Dickson holding here.
18/05/2018 Arm Chair Campaign Manager
Joe Dickson has been around one election too many and has done little in the riding the last few years. His own brand and the liberal brand have deteriorated. That combined with a strong PC local campaign and provincial campaign will mean a big PC win in this riding.
17/05/2018 DarkFlare
To be honest I think this one is too quickly called for the PCs. Just because the liberals aren't popular right now doesn't mean Joe Dickson isn't. He's been a staple of Ajax for a very long time. In a year with probably the most unpopular set of leaders in history, I think that the popular local candidate will win the day.
13/05/2018 Blue Leaning
What is happening to Joe Dickson. He cancelled on the Rogers debate and now he has cancelled on the big Board of Trade Debate. must be that he cannot support the record of his parties last few years and is afraid to have to defend their record. Rumour was that he might have been ill but he is reported as saying that he is not. What's the trouble Joe. Another interesting thing going on is that Joe has new lawn signs or old ones with stickers saying that 'Joe lives here. He surely must be spreading himself thin. Funny thing all other candidates own home and live in Ajax
09/05/2018 Laurence Putnam
Quintessential bellwether, and the Liberals are so far past their expiry date that this one is hardly in doubt. Any hope they might have had was extinguished by the Tories' high profile candidate.
16/04/2018 Exile
Rod Phillips has a superb organization and he is a highly-respected guy. Should be a pick-up for the PCs.
15/04/2018 A.S.
Yeah, that's an important thing to remember about Joe Dickson: he's pushing 80--yeah, Monte Kwinter stuck it out; but, still. Though more generically speaking, Ajax demos haven't been working in the Tories' favour for ages--not that it matters now; for all one knows, we might be looking at an inverted version of the 21-and-a-half-point Holland-over-Alexander federal landslide in 2015...
13/04/2018 Cabbagetown Red Tory
Joe Dickson is past his prime. He is a tired old warrior. The forces at play against him are too strong to overcome. Casino aside, this is a mortgage belt seat, there will be a strong PC swing - Rod Phillips has been waiting for this moment his whole life, he won't be stopped.
2018-04-0 G Lobe
The recent announcement about moving the Durham casino from Ajax to Pickering kills any chance that Dickson might have had for reelection in Ajax. Ajax mayor openly said that Dickson would have 0-5% chance now. With PC candidate Rod Philips being a well known figure and coming down strongly on this issue, PCs are positioned to pick Ajax.
03/04/2018 Blue Leaning
Well- Pickering has announced that Durham Live has received the contract for the new Casino sometime in 2019. Joseph this cinches your retirement as you could not hold on to the casino for your riding and the deal with the horse racing society does not provide enough funds to replace the slots money share that kept Quarter Horse racing alive in Ontario. Enjoy your retirement and your Pension
11/03/2018 Libertyguy
Although the main parties have bigger budgets and teams ajax is one the riding where they really like the smaller guy or girl. Marsha Haynes of the libertarians should have no problem pulling this one off
16/02/2018 Blue Leaning
If the casino actually is removed from Ajax and goes to Pickering Joseph will lose his seat Although he says he supports the casino and racetrack in Ajax, he wrote a letter supporting the casino and development in Pickering.
Joseph enjoy your retirement
16/01/2018 Blue Leaning
Joe Dickson has been around for a long time but actual accomplishments are few. Lots of pictures but no substance.
If the Blues don't shoot themselves in the foot this should be one of the change ridings in the province. If it goes blue so will the province
2017-12-26 A BCer
Redistribution made this a slightly more urban, Liberal-friendly riding then before, although not by much. Joe Dickson seems like a pretty popular MPP, and this riding went heavily Liberal in 2015 (Even with a fairly-high profile Harper Cabinet Minister running for re-election), but the PCs are also running a something of a star candidate, media magnate Rod Phillips. I don't think it will be enough to overcome the margin in this deep-red riding, so I'm going to say Liberal-hold.
13/12/2017 M. Lunn
In the 905 belt, local candidates at best maybe change things by 5% so I don't think Rod Philipps or the current MPP will make that big a difference unless it is really close. In some cases they can help such as Lisa Raitt in Milton federally who probably saved the riding for the Tories due to her personal popularity, but again she barely won it, and the Liberals barely won the other three Halton ridings last federal election. As such if the PCs win a majority, they will likely pick this up, while if they fall short of a majority, then it should stay Liberal.
08/12/2017 George
This Rod Phillips may be a 'star candidate' amongst a handful of downtown elites, but no one in Ajax has ever heard of him. Joe Dickson has been in public office in Ajax continuously since 1970---he's a known quantity, and very popular. He'll win by the same 12-to-20-point margin he wins by every time, with the PCs closer to third than first.
06/12/2017 Kathy
If the PCs win the election, they will win this seat. Star candidate with Rod Phillips.

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