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British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Vancouver-Point Grey


Prediction Changed
2017-03-28 22:16:24
 



Constituency Profile

Candidates:

 

Eby, David Robert Patrick

Konkin, Amanda

Lombardi, James

Stall, David

Taylor, Brian

Incumbent:
Vancouver-Point Grey
David Eby

Reference:
Population (2014):60611
Deviation from average:14.10%
Geographical Area:42 sq km
2013 Election Result
Vancouver-Point Grey
David Eby
1149947.59%
Christy Clark*
1043643.19%
Françoise Raunet
16366.77%
Duane Nickull
3921.62%
William Gibbens
720.30%
Marisa Palmer
660.27%
Hollis Jacob Linschoten
510.21%
Bernard Bedu Yankson
110.05%
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


 

21/04/2017 Proud BCer
154.5.209.240
Incumbent NDP MLA David Eby was able to beat the premier here in 2013. Now the BC Liberals have picked James Lombardi, who, while a strong candidate, is unlikely to beat Eby. Eby is often seen as a future leader of the party, and if the NDP wins he will occupy a powerful position in the cabinet. This should be an easier win for the NDP then it was in 2013.
20/04/2017 Laurence Putnam
108.180.162.27
Federally Liberal since 1984, this is probably the most truly 'centrist' riding in the entire province, perhaps in all of Western Canada. It will never be a truly 'safe' seat for David Eby, however he has cemented himself with very high name recognition and media profile. Having bumped off the incumbent Premier in her own riding in a middling NDP campaign in 2013, I think it would take an NDP campaign of truly disastrous proportions (1986 or 2001 scenarios) for him to lose it. This is a possible future leader of the party. Greens like to think the student vote will help them out but by the time May rolls around there are few students left in the riding, and of those who remain very few will cast a ballot.
17/04/2017 Malkmus
69.159.86.204
People have often thought Point Grey = affluent = Liberal, but David Eby disproved that. This area is filled with academics and professionals with high levels of education and a progressive worldview. Lots of renters too. You will have to go further south to find more a more homogeneous group of affluent Liberal homeowners.
Plus, Eby has established himself as a high profile MLA. He's a good fit for the area: as a civil rights lawyer, he's strongly progressive, but in an unmistakably middle/upper middle class, professional way.
25/03/2017
70.68.212.18
I'm not sure why this is listed as TCTC. Even when Gordon Campbell was MLA and enjoying a bounce for being a party leader he wasn't winning here with 50% + margins.
David Eby is maybe one of the most recognized MLA's in BC and has universal name recognition in his riding. The BC Liberals couldn't even win this seat with their own party leader and a boondoggled campaign from the BC NDP in 2013.
How are the Liberals winning this riding in 2017 with a lesser known candidate, under a more popular BC NDP leader, and an even more recognized David Eby?
25/03/2017 Crystal Ball
70.79.196.133
Quite confident this will remain NDP. David Eby is an all-star candidate and has power of incumbency. Challenger is unknown. This riding although very wealthy votes 'progressive' municipally. It is essentially a Cadillac socialist or lefty Liberal riding. Will be close but Kits renters should give Eby enough votes to secure victory again.
17 02 22 South Islander
184.71.12.34
It is difficult to gauge the natural leanings of this district because the last election during which the BCL leader was not a candidate in this riding was 1991. Last election, residents got to ?send a message? by voting against Clark while voters across the province held their noses and gave her party another term. But my suspicion is that Point Grey is naturally BCL and the NDP will have a difficult time holding it under normal conditions when the BC Liberal candidate can actually campaign in the district full-time and isn't a target of ire. Will UBC students be as motivated as they were in 2013 to vote early where they go to school rather than on election day where they live? Not without Christy as the incumbent.
Can Eby save this for the NDP? While he was a strong candidate as BCCLA director, he has been very visible but partisan and polarizing as an MLA. Instead of staking a position as the civil libertarian champion of the party, he has firmly positioned himself on the left, which makes him a bad fit for this particular riding.
Even if Eby's incumbency advantage counteracts the natural BCL tilt of the district, I think the BCLs will once again win the popular vote and win back Point Grey.
17 01 27 Pundit79
142.30.110.217
I can't see David Eby losing this election especially after beating Premier Christy Clark by around a thousand last election.
17 01 08 Brian J
64.114.70.133
If you'd told me in 2013 that the NDP were going to win Christy's seat but still lose the election, I'd say you were crazy on both counts. But that's what happened, and David Eby has been a really strong MLA since his surprise election. Truthfully, if I were Eby, I would have jumped to a safer NDP seat this May but he's determined to run in Point Grey and I simply can't see him losing.



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