Linschoten, Hollis Jacob
Yankson, Bernard Bedu T
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election
Pundits’ Guide - 2008 Prepresentation Order
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| ||13 05 12
|The NDP is considerably ahead in the Lower Mainland and the final polls have indicated a solidification of their lead in the 5-10 point range province wide. In our system, this is far more than a ?razor thin? majority as being propagated by some. As an example, in 2009, the Liberals garnered 45.8% to the NDP's 42.1% province wide. This 3.7% gap resulted in a healthy 14 seat majority for the BC Libs. One can surmise that a 5-10 point spread is likely to be an even larger majority this time for the NDP. |
Considering the polling margin showing the NDP ahead in the Lower Mainland is even greater than province wide, I think the Premier will be defeated on election night in her Vancouver riding which has voted NDP previously. Perhaps not by a wide margin, but that will be my final prediction.
| ||13 05 05
|The previous post is certainly not biased at all towards the NDP. Christy may be a bad driver but that certainly is not a deciding factor for the voters of this riding that could be described as ?money and brains?. That said, the previous post is correct that Eby is a strong NDP candidate and a capable politician. However, in light of the fact that there does not appear to be a Liberal meltdown in progress, this seat will probably go to Clark. I'm guessing that the Liberals will push 40 seats with the NDP barely getting a razer thin majority. In that instance, Point Grey will go liberal most likely. |
| ||13 05 03
|As we've recently learned, residents in this riding aren't safe with Christy having a driver's licence never mind the Premier's chair!|
While she still has 11 days to mitigate the damage, I'm going to call this for the NDP.
Christy has made such a laughingstock of herself that even amongst those who would never vote NDP, there will be free enterprisers who are too embarrassed to continue to support her. Not that they are all too incentivized to so anyway since Christy began the campaign with tax hikes on the wealthy, many of whom live in this very riding.
While I'm citing Christy's bafflingly idiotic performance in this campaign as a good reason to predict her defeat; the other point worth mentioning is that David Eby, to give him credit, has really worked it in this riding. His campaign never really stopped since the by-election - his name equity is high and he can be taken seriously on an intellectual level, which I personally don't feel is the case with the incumbent Premier.
David Eby will get to enjoy one term, as a likely candidate for Solicitor General, I would say.
Buying the leadership of the BC Liberal party: $200,000.
Purchasing good press for yourself on the front page of the 24: $20,000
Listening to Christy concede her own seat on election night: Priceless.
| ||13 05 03
|I thought that the Premier was toast in this riding. However, with the gap in polling numbers narrowing substantially, I think this riding will be a squeaker either way. TCTC|
| ||13 04 25
|I'm going to call this one for Christy Clark. She is the premier, and even if she's not popular elsewhere in the province, she is popular here. It probably will go right down the wire, but I think Clarke will prevail.|
| ||13 04 22
|Clark is lucky - lucky that she is in a similar electoral situation to Jean Charest.|
Her riding is a riding that could fall should her party lose an election, much like Charest's riding fell when he lost.
Lucky as well that it offers her a good way out, like Charest.
With all signs pointing to a loss, there's a good chance she will also lose her riding, and frankly, she probably wants it that way for the reasons outlined.
Clark will be 1 of 2 things.
1 - Re-Elected as Premier and MLA for Vancouver-Point Grey
2 - Defeated as Premier and MLA for Vancouver-Point Grey
She can and will not win one job and not the other.
| ||13 03 25
|It's gonna be closer than some think BUT it will go to Eby. |
| ||13 03 25
|This riding wouldn't normally be on my list of NDP pickups. Despite Clark's unpopularity, her political profile fits the riding's demographics to a T, and she can be counted on to supply substantial organizational chops in mobilizing voters. Eby, on the other hand, seems to me too left-wing for the wealthy and historically Liberal voters here. And the riding didn't go NDP in 1996.|
But this isn't 1996. Support for the government in this area has worn very thin, as shown by Clark's near-failure to win her by-election. With Eby now a known quantity to voters, I have difficulty seeing his support dropping. And with Clark's unpopularity having grown dramatically since then, I have difficulty seeing her support rising. Add to that Gregor Robertson's recent electoral success in this part of town, and you get a reasonably certain NDP gain.
| ||13 03 14
|Seeing as the Premier barely won the by-election and that things have kind of gone downhill from there I think she will lose this riding. The NDP are running David Ebey again, a fairly strong candidate. With many other East Van ridings locked up, there will be lots of resources for the NDP to spare as well.|
But, things could change, so it?s a safe bet to officially leave it in the too close to call category until we get closer to election day.
| ||13 03 08
||NO PARTISAN BS|
|This is a harder one to call than most. Usually leaders are able to hold seats even when their party is going down, but recent elections have shown that this is not always the case. If Clark has a decent provincial campaign, she may hold on by her fingernails but if she becomes the lightening rod for discontent, the NDP will sweep her out of her seat as well as out of office. The odds point to the latter right now.|
| ||13 03 04
|The Premier barely won this in a byelection and in general elections it tends to be fairly close. With the BC Liberals trailing badly and the Premier extremely unpopular it is probably going to the NDP, albeit by perhaps only 5% spread. |
| ||13 02 28
|This is one of the few generic liberal seats in western Canada federally, and a swing seat provincially. This time it will be for the NDP. The BC Conservatives have nominated a decent candidate with some good business credentials, the Greens are offering up a decent challenge, and David Eby (who almost knocked off the Premier in her by-election campaign) is returning for the NDP. Add that to an extremely unpopular government and the latest revelations over the ethnic voter scheme directed in the halls of government with (unethical) collaboration with the party, and Christy Clark will be lucky to finish behind the Green Party for 4th place. Pt Grey is ready for change.|
| ||13 02 24
|While Point Grey is an affluent riding, it has a large constituency of intelligentsia and ?urban progressives? which makes the NDP competitive. And David Eby is a highly credible candidate who came within 500 or so votes of Christy Clark, who has seen her popularity plummet even further. Christy Clark, like Michael Ignatieff, will go down with the ship. I expect a 1991-type result here. |
| ||13 02 15
|Reserving my call for now. Easily going to be the most-watched seat on election night. Resources will pour in from the HQs of both parties. NDP hopes traditionally rest on the student population, although historically statistics prove this is a misnomer. The larger issues are Liberal disillusionment, and the decline of the Green Party.|
The case for the Liberals is that this is a wealthy riding which despite close calls hasn't returned the NDP in over 20 years. And leaders, however much they are hated, typically do not lose their seats. Christy Clark was able to win during a by-election in which the Liberals were very unpopular.
Still, she wasn't able to win by much. David Eby was only 595 votes behind on election day. I'm personally of the opinion that had the more moderate Mike Farnworth won the NDP leadership immediately prior to the by-election, that turning 300 votes the other way would have been possible - and that Christy would have lost. Gregor Robertson has won these areas handily in his initial election and subsequent re-election.
The case for the NDP winning is that the Liberals are headed for a '91 Socreds, '93 PCs, '01 NDP-style meltdown. While Liberals have shored up support in recent months, the meltdown scenario remains on the radar.
I'm reserving judgement for now, but I think if the Liberals are headed for a ?victory? of less than 25 seats, then this one will tip to the NDP in the event of that scenario. I'll revisit this call in early May.
| ||13 02 09
|Christy Clark is going to lose her own seat. I just can't see her hanging on especially when she barely won a by election when her popularity was not as bad as it is now.|
| ||13 02 09
|I see Christy Clark going down in her own seat a la Ignatieff '11 here. She snuck through with about 500 votes (and there was no Conservative candidate running) in the by-election and if anything her credibility has been tarnished further. While an affluent riding there are lots of highly educated intelligentsia and ?urban progressives? in Point Grey giving the NDP a strong base. I expect a 1991-type result here.|