Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

Oak Bay-Gordon Head

Prediction Changed
2017-01-14 13:58:57

Constituency Profile



Casavant, Bryce

Dutton, Alex

Free, Xaanja Ganja

Weaver, Andrew John

Yang-Riley, Jin Dong

Oak Bay-Gordon Head
Dr. Andrew Weaver

Population (2014):55689
Deviation from average:4.80%
Geographical Area:330 sq km
2013 Election Result
Oak Bay-Gordon Head
Andrew Weaver
Ida Chong*
Jessica Van der Veen
Greg Kazakoff
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


08/05/2017 Miles Lunn
Andrew Weaver has too big a profile to not win this. The real question is will they pick up any other ridings. If they don't he plans to not run again and that could make this up for grabs for both the NDP and BC Liberals in 2021.
06/05/2017 Saanich resident
Should be a fairly easy re-election for Weaver in this riding.
02/05/2017 Dr. Sartor
This looks like a lock for Andrew Weaver. In 2013 he came out of nowhere, so to speak, to score an impressive upset. This time around, as the incumbent and leader of the Green Party, he starts from a stronger position. Also, voters favourably disposed to the Greens in 2013 but who decided a vote for Weaver would be wasted in a hopeless cause, will have no such qualm in 2017. The huge number of Weaver lawn signs on display leave little doubt of the outcome.
25/04/2017 Long Term Resident
Weaver didn't just win last time, he won in the riding with the biggest voter turn-out in the province. This combined with his larger profile and generally respected work as an MLA should guarantee him the win. However, there are other things worth pointing to. The polls have never looked better for the Greens at 22% province-wide and 37% on Vancouver Island, and that same poll (Mainstreet Research) showed their support hardening to 67% certain to not change their vote (approximately the same degree of certain to not change their vote as the Liberals and NDP, and far more solid for the Greens than in past elections). Finally, for the first time Green support is close to equal across most age groups (having picked up more support from seniors than they've enjoyed in the past) which helps insulate the Greens from the fact that certain age groups are often under-represented on election day. This seems likely to be the Greens' best result in the province.
18/04/2017 Laurence Putnam
Andrew Weaver has already joined the ranks of Gordon Gibson, Scott Wallace (also MLA for Oak Bay), Jack Weisgerber, Gordon Wilson and a few others over the decades whose lone voices in the legislature earned the respect of virtually all their colleagues. I imagine many in the NDP ranks both hate him for competition and yet secretly admire him all at once, and perhaps a few Liberals as well. Weaver's steady, solid work as an MLA and in raising the profile of the Green Party in general is going to pay off in this election, at least in so far as easily winning this seat again. The question is, how much bigger can this thing get?
18/04/2017 Another Islander
Weaver is not going to lose his seat. Whether you like him or not (and hardline supporters of the other two parties clearly don't seem to), he is locally popular and has the distinction of being the only Green candidate in any sort of Canadian election to have won a seat despite not being the leader of the party. This time around, the Greens are clearly stronger - especially considering that the last four Mainstreet polls, whether you believe them are not, show them in the lead on Vancouver Island, with the number of voters decidedly choosing the Greens increasing as well. Even if their surge dies down before the election (and at this point, I see no clear evidence that that will happen), Weaver should still be able to hold on to Oak Bay-Gordon Head.
Dutton and Casavant are certainly strong candidates, but neither of them have the experience, credentials, or local support that Weaver has here. If anything, I would expect the Green vote to grow substantially rather than shrink in order to make this a tight race, let alone a three-way race.
17/04/2017 Crystal Ball
Strong candidate in this riding. Greens may lose some votes to NDP. Tight 3 way race. This could be only riding that goes BC Liberal on island. Greens riding high in polls now when it doesn't matter. Once we get closer it will be a 2 horse race.
07/04/2017 Dr. J.
This is very interesting riding. Weaver and the Greens should be regarded as the favourites, but with a three way split the riding could go any way: Green, NDP or Liberal. Weaver is an abrasive, arrogant, and unpleasant man and should not be regarded as a shoo-in. He definitely rubs some people the wrong way. There is a possibility that some right-wing voters (who voted Green last time) will go back to the Liberals. In the last last election, many right wing people thought that the NDP was going to win -- so they thought that they might as well vote for Weaver. In a close election, they might be tempted to stick with the Liberals. The NDP has targeted this riding too and have a reasonably high profile candidate. The winner in this riding could have as little as 35% of the vote.
17 03 08 South Islander
If Weaver beat 17-year incumbent Ida Chong with 40% of the vote last time, he will easily hold this riding with a majority of the vote. Moderate environmentally conscious voters, who make up a majority of the district, no longer need to strategically pick a side of the ideological dichotomy. Weaver has also been a visible MLA and excellent advocate for his district.
17 01 12 Brian
Easy win for Andrew Weaver. He has proven to be strong MLA and has contributed a lot to BC politics over his tenure.
17 01 12 Bernard von Schulmann
Most likely Andrew Weaver will hold the seat but Alex Dutton for the Liberals and Bryce Cavasant for the NDP will make it an interesting race

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