Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009

Oak Bay-Gordon Head

Prediction Changed
9:58 PM 10/05/2009

Constituency Profile

Chong, Ida
Green Party
Johns, Steven
Van der Veen, Jessica

Oak Bay-Gordon Head
(Approx. 90% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

(Approx. 10% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 05 11 Lisa R
It is rather unfortunate to read the mistruths being posted about incumbent Ida Chong and all-candidate debates. I read - and believe - Ms Chong's letter to the paper setting the record straight. She attended every candidate meeting put to her, except the first. I understand by the time Ms. Chong received her invite her schedule was already full - and given that was on the first Saturday of the campaign it really is quite understandable. I heard Ms. Chong debate on CBC radio, CFAX radio and at Oak Bay High School. To say she dodged is just not true and unfair to an incumbent who has worked for years on behalf of her home community, both as an MLA and councilor. I predict Ms. Chong will hold her seat.
09 05 11
Ida Chong will win this. She has the strong name recognition, and is involved with her community.
09 05 07 Dr J
I stand by my earlier estimate of the ratio of NDP to BCLIB signs -- sort of. In an earlier post I estimated the advantage as ?three or four to one.? Since another poster challenged this estimate, I have paid closer attention to the signs. In south Oak Bay (where I live) I have, in the course of my morning runs and walking the dog, counted about 80 something NDP signs and about 30 BCLIB signs. OK, not quite three to one. I have seen two Green signs on private property. As other posters have noted, there is dissatisfaction with Chong dodging all candidates meetings. She is far from being a heavy hitter in the cabinent. I think that Chong may be in trouble. But I still think this is TCTC.
09 05 06 G West
The dissatisfaction with Ida Chong's non-appearance at all candidates meetings is widespread in the riding. Her profile as a cabinet minister has been as bad as Murray Coel's.
There's a very good chance neither Chong nor Coel will be re-elected.
There are a lot of green signs in the ridings - but nearly none of them are on private yards or residences.
09 04 28 Ron
I agree that the NDP need not win this riding to form government. The Liberals knocked off NDP Finance Minister Elizabeth Cull here while the NDP was in government. The riding does tend to be a trend setter in that if the Liberals are in trouble, it should show up here. That said, I don't believe the NDP will take this ?streetcar suburb? riding with tons of upscale neighbourhoods and plush streets which generally trend towards the BC Liberals (and federal Liberals, too). Some of these well-to-do neighbourhoods would include the Uplands, Ten Mile Point, Queenswood, Gonzales Hill, South Oak Bay, Willows Beach, Gordon Point Estates, University Woods, Upper Lansdowne Slope/Henderson, Mount Tolmie etc. etc. etc. - in other words - lots!
09 04 25 Interested Party
I'm not sure what the earlier poster was talking about when discussing the sign wars - I live in Oak Bay and there is about a 2:1 ratio in favour of the NDP.
There also seems to be a real volunteer factor in play for the NDP - I've received phone calls from live volunteers twice already from the NDP, while my only contact from the Liberal team has been a single automated voice message.
This combined with the loss of strong Liberal polls in the north and the pickup of some blue-collar neighbourhoods in the Hillside/Shelbourne area from Rob Fleming's old riding suggests that this one is either too close to call or leaning NDP.
I also think that this is one riding where the refusal of Liberal candidates to attend debates (noted in both local papers with respect to Chong specifically) may come back to haunt the Liberals, as the older demographic in this community still value the face-to-face interaction which Chong seems intent on avoiding.
09 04 25 Dr J
I am still not ready to call this riding. van der Veen has clearly won the sign war: I have traveled throughout the constituency (with the exception of Ten Mile Point, which can be expected to favour the BCLibs) and NDP signs out number Chong's by about three or four to one. This may only mean that the NDP vote is more dedicated. Chong skipped an all-candidates meeting at the University of Victoria; I am not sure what to read into that, but I think that it is a little more evidence that she does not have deep roots in or attachment to the constituency. I see her every Oak Bay Tea Party Parade, but don't hear much from her for the rest of the year. One plus for the NDP: the Times Colonist had a editorial that was cautiously favourable about the NDP platform, describing it as ?moderate.? In the end, this riding will probably be decided by provincial trends, and these look to be heading towards the BCLibs (at least until yesterday's revelations about the Solicitor General).
09 04 22 poll researcher
just cause someone lives in Oak Bay doesn't mean they are rich and this riding has a lot of public servants the added 10% not 15% like the last commenter stated could help either party not everyone in Rob Fleming's riding votes NDP. The Greens can split the Vote against the NDP as well.
09 04 22 OB-GH Prediction
Chong will win-99% chance. Here's why:
a) She's a Cabinet Minister
b) She's won three straight MLA elections. She obviously has a deep base of support.
c) Chong makes great effort to be involved in her community.
d) She's an accountant and will be seen as being knowledgeable about the economy.
09 04 18
15% of the polls from Victoria-Hillside (a solidly NDP riding) being added onto this riding could be the difference considering how close the race was in 2005. Still, the BC Liberals are surging in the polls right now, so Chong should probably be safe. Plus, she's a solid performer.
09 04 18
There are too many well-to-do neighbourhoods both in the Oak Bay part and the Saanich part (and not just Uplands) for the NDP to really make inroads. The riding only votes NDP when the right wing party is clearly on its way out.
09 04 17 Tyler Durden
The BC Liberals and Ida Chong should be able to hold onto this important seat. This riding is always very close (except of course in 2001). Chong always runs a good campaign and always seems able to get good people on her campaign team. From my understanding her campaign manager is used to running (and winning) close elections having run Keith Martins recent campaign.
As a longtime resident of the riding, one thing I like to keep an eye on is the candidates signage. It seems that Chong's team always wins the ?sign wars?. If you look closely the majority of her signs seem to be on peoples lawns (indidcating voter support), whereas the NDP seems to mostly focus on blvds (indicating nothing) !
Its not a slam dunk, but OBGH will continue to support Chong. She is a good local MLA who is well known in the community and has a reputation for caring about the people in the riding.
09 04 12 AHM
I would not be to quick to put this in the liberal camp I have lived and campaign in this riding twice (local for myself & provincial for someone else) I looked at the 2006 census there are renters & 47% pay more than 30% of income on rent they go to the polls in massive numbers if they find out the changes the liberals made to the tenants act and it won't be to mark their X with Ida Chong. Like all cabinet ministers Ida will face the hurdles of a government seeking a 3rd term especially this government, the perception of arrogance, cost over-runs, hypocrisy on deficit budgets school closures, the BC Rail scandal the leak liberal document that tells government members it's question period not answer period & when all else fails attack the NDP record. I doubt the civil servants and teacher's anger is subdued. The NDP came close to recapturing this riding in 2005 (victory margin 5% give or take a bit) but school trustee Charley Beresford isn't running that could be a mixed blessing. Although I disagree that the NDP must win it to form the government their are plenty of close ridings and winning Oak Bay Gordon Head is not a do or die for them
09 03 31 binriso
You gotta think this will be one of the seats the NDP wins in a majority situation. They might need to win all but 2 ridings on the Island, or whatever that green part is on the map.
09 03 25 Dr J
This is a swing riding that the NDP needs to win if they want to form a government. They are definitely better organized than in the previous election. I have already received two phone calls from the NDP campaign (I don't recall receiving any last time). The Uplands gives the right wing party a couple of thousand votes head start every election, but it might not be enough this time. Victoria is becoming a more progressive city as time goes by, and Oak Bay-Gordon Head (apart from the super rich in the Uplands) is no exception
09 01 29 Bernard
The NDP benefited in 2005 from a lot of angry civil servants, that anger is muted now.
Provincially polling shows the NDP consistently behind where they were in the last election, so they are not going to pick up seats.
I can not see a scenario in which the NDP wins this riding.
09 01 19 Burt R
Once again, the NDP will be in this race. That being said, unless the NDP riding association gets some outside organisational support, this riding will yet again elect Ida Chong.

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