Election Prediction Project

British Columbia Provincial Election - 2017

North Vancouver-Lonsdale

Prediction Changed
2017-05-08 20:51:37

Constituency Profile



Ma, Bowinn

Warrington, Richard

Wilson, Donald N.S.

Yamamoto, Naomi

North Vancouver-Lonsdale
Hon. Naomi Yamamoto

Population (2014):57431
Deviation from average:8.10%
Geographical Area:25 sq km
2013 Election Result
North Vancouver-Lonsdale
Naomi Yamamoto*
Craig Keating
Ryan Conroy
Allan John Molyneaux
Laurence Watt
Carra-Lynn Hodgson
Kimball Cariou
Previous Prediction - 2013 Provincial Election
Previous Prediction - 2009 Provincial Election


09/05/2017 George Pringle
Called at the last minute? Naomi has a lock on this. A out of riding NDPer and no Conservative.
08/05/2017 Laurence Putnam
How on Earth can this be one of the last three to deserve a call? I just walked by the NDP office and it is DEAD in there. The NDP has never done better here than the 40% they got with Keating last time. As with 1991, the only time in history the NDP ever won the riding, you need a vote split on the centre/right for the NDP to take this. Everyone is consolidated behind Naomi Yamamoto. You may think Kinder Morgan is an issue in this riding, but anyone it is an issue for is already voting NDP or Green. This high-income riding does not want the NDP. I'm baffled that this would make the cut of three closest races in the province, as if there is a real chance that the NDP candidate whom no one has ever heard of is going to win this riding for the NDP for just the second time in the past 15+ elections.
29/04/2017 Physastr Master
Really surprised this is still being called for the Liberals. Eric Grenier has it as 'Likely NDP' which indicates confidence of 80-95%. Sure the Kinder Morgan issue may not have changed from last election, but something else more general must be swaying minds in the lower mainland. We will know better if that holds once post-debate polling arrives.
24/04/2017 South Islander
@'The Tyee': Not here, because nothing has changed from 2013 that would favour the NDP. The NDP, BCL and Green positions on the pipeline are unchanged. Most anti-pipeline voters would have voted NDP last time, which is why they gained ground in ridings in the Burrard Inlet. The only evidence of any change in this riding from 2013 that is contained in this article is the candidate's own convenient assertion that "she thinks the public sentiment has shifted". I don't even think the article's author believes the NDP will win here.
21/04/2017 The Tyee
The Tyee: Could Kinder Morgan Cost the BC Liberals Four Seats?
18/04/2017 Laurence Putnam
I wrongly predicted Naomi losing this riding last time and all I can say is; if Craig Keating couldn't have snatched it away last time (and in all practical terms, with a margin of 5 points he didn't even come close) then there is absolutely no way it's going NDP this time. Keating ran an awesome, visible campaign, going in as the City Councillor who routinely tops the polls. Now the NDP are running a no name candidate against a reinvigorated Green campaign, which hurts the NDP as much as the Libs are buoyed by the disintegration of the Conservatives. Naomi wins.
17/04/2017 Crystal Ball
Greens will do enough damage to split vote just enough to elect BC Liberal.
21/03/2017 South Islander
Craig Keating has been a North Vancouver City Councillor since 1999. His name recognition and record of service helped him finish within 5% of incumbents here 2005 and 2013. He's now president of the BCNDP and isn't running. In her first run in 2009, Yamamoto held this seat by 12%. Now an 8-year incumbent and cabinet minister running against a still solid but lesser-known candidate, she should be able to hold - even if the province-wide campaign goes badly for the BCL.
17 01 14 Jack Cox
Craig Keating ran an impressive race here last time and narrowly knocked out Naomi Yamamoto. This riding did vote NDP in 1991, so unless it looks like the NDP will form the government I don't think they will win this seat.

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