Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009

North Vancouver-Lonsdale

Prediction Changed
12:42 PM 17/01/2009

Constituency Profile

Green Party
Corcos, Michelle
BC Reform
Gamble, Ron K.
Harris, Janice
McLeod, Ian
Yamamoto, Naomi

WHITTRED, Katherine
North Vancouver-Lonsdale
(Approx. 85% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

JARVIS, Daniel
North Vancouver-Seymour
(Approx. 10% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

West Vancouver-Capilano
(Approx. 5% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 05 08 Ross Calahan
Carole James held a rally in North Vancouver on Wednesday and outdrew Campbell's rally early in week. This coupled with recent opinion polls and Janice's environmental/civic record makes this one a close race and an NDP win.
09 04 30 James P
New polls showing the NDP now closing the gap has them poised to possibly form a government, and that means North Vancouver-Lonsdale is back in play in a big, big way.
Look for about 5-10% of the Liberal vote to drift Conservative and for the NDP to lift just a few percent. On May 12th, Janice Harris will be the MLA.
09 04 20 ArmchairPundit
With their current lead in the polls, the Liberals should be okay here, but don't count the NDP out if they tighten up.
The Lib election team here is VERY, VERY green and are up against a seasoned campaigner (albeit, not in Lonsdale) in Janice Harris.
The NDP will have a respectable showing here, but unfortunately for them, the riding has gentrified significantly since 2005.
09 04 19 binriso
With both the BC conservatives and the BC Reform Party running candidates here it might split the right wing vote just enough, if the NDP can keep it as close as it was in 2005.
09 04 18
I'm honestly not sure why this is depicted as BC Liberal. This riding is going to be a fight. As a mayor, Janice Harris has the name recognition. Naomi Yamamoto is a strong challenger with a good resume, but considering how close this race was in 2005 (less than 6% margin of victory for the BC Liberals), this riding should be too close to call.
09 04 13 Derrick
Strong showing by Liberals in the past will translate into victory at the polls in May. Riding has benefited from BCL largesse.
09 04 09 Claire
I think people in this riding are a lot more conservative than in previous years (look at the fall federal election results with Andrew Saxton winning). I don't think the people that voted from the federal Conservatives are going to vote for the provincial NDP. It won't be a blow-out, but my money's on the Liberals.
09 03 27 Laurence Putnam
Before New Democrats jump with joy at the prospect of Janice Harris, indeed a good candidate for them, you must nevertheless look back to the fact that Harris was a District of North Vancouver politician, and North Vancouver-Lonsdale is in the City of North Vancouver.
In 1991, long-time District Mayor Marilyn Baker ran for Social Credit - and placed third at 24%. Had Baker run in North Vancouver-Seymour she may have won. She surely would have done better.
Harris' dilemma is this: were she to run in her home riding of North Vancouver-Seymour, her name equity would be much stronger, but so is aversion to the NDP.
In North Vancouver-Lonsdale, sympathies to the NDP are greater, but Harris' name is worth less in the minds of those constituents.
I don't doubt she will get a better result in Lonsdale than she would have in Seymour - but Craig Keating had a very high name equity as a City of North Vancouver politician in 2005 and still lost by almost 1,000 votes.
It'll be a good fight, but Harris can't deliver on her name alone and her record in the District isn't going to be as appreciated by constituents in the City.
09 03 22 DL
The NDP is running a very strong candidate who is mayor of North Vancouver. The Liberal incumbent is retiring and the new candidate is a total unknown who won the nomination over some far more formidable candidates by signing up a bunch of ?instant Liberals?, it was very close last time - it all adds up to an NDP win this time!
09 03 22
The B.C. Liberals have easily cruised to victory in all four North Shore constituencies ever since Gordon Campbell became leader 15 years ago.
The closest the NDP ever came was in 2005 in North Vancouver-Lonsdale, when City of North Vancouver councillor Craig Keating came 994 votes behind the incumbent B.C. Liberal MLA, Katherine Whittred, who is on the eve of her retirement from politics.
But this time, the stars might have aligned for the NDP. Former District of North Vancouver mayor and councillor Janice Harris has declared that she will seek the NDP nomination in North Vancouver-Lonsdale.
Harris is something of a household name on the North Shore. She is well-known for her support of the environment and has often been spotted cycling around the area. One of her last acts on council was to introduce a motion in council to set targets to limit the use of plastic bags.
Opponents of logging in the Metro Vancouver watersheds regularly praised Harris in the past when she served on the regional water committee.
The B.C. Liberals have nominated the lesser known Naomi Yamamoto, who heads the chamber of commerce and who has served on the board of the Vancouver Coastal Health Authority since 2001.
Yamamoto is also president of the Gordon and Marion Smith Foundation, which promotes arts programs for kids. Party members rejected the former district mayor and former MP, Don Bell, and former Vancouver city councillor Jennifer Clarke, who both sought the nomination.
So how can Harris succeed when Keating failed? One of the most important factors will be the third and fourth parties.
In 2001, the Green candidate, Terry Long, took 20.14 percent of the vote. In 2005, Long captured 12.16 percent of the vote, and the race was far closer between the New Democrat and the B.C. Liberal.
This time, the Greens are running an unknown, Michelle Corcos, against a New Democrat (Harris) with strong environmental credentials.
Green Leader Jane Sterk is far less known on the North Shore than her predecessor, Adriane Carr.
The Green vote shrivelled in the recent by-elections in Vancouver-Burrard and Vancouver-Fairview. If the Green vote in North Vancouver-Lonsdale drops to the five percent range, Harris will likely win.
The next factor is the B.C. Conservative Party. It has gained some traction recently. Its candidate, Ian McLeod, is running under a brand that might appeal to the same type of antiestablishment, right wing, North Shore voters who elected Ted White as their MP in three consecutive federal campaigns.
Normally, the majority of angry white males vote for the B.C. Liberals, but this time, some might go for the B.C. Conservatives. If McLeod takes more than five percent of the vote?which is quite achievable if his leader Wilf Hanni gains a greater profile?then the B.C. Liberals will be toast in North Vancouver-Lonsdale.
Janice Harris will then be the one celebrating on May 12, having captured the constituency for the New Democrats for the first time since 1991 when David Schreck succeeded after a split of votes on the right.
North Vancouver-Lonsdale differs from the other North Shore constituencies in the following respects:
* Its average family income of $77,453 is below the provincial average, which is a good sign for the NDP.
* It has the highest percentage of renters on the North Shore?44 percent?and renters are usually more likely to vote NDP than homeowners.
North Vancouver-Lonsdale also has Lions Gate Hospital, which employs lots of health workers. Most of these health workers won't be impressed that the B.C. Liberal candidate is on the board of the regional health authority, which privatized many jobs in this sector.
The health unions will want to defeat Yamamoto. And they'll let their members know that the best way to accomplish this is by voting for Harris.
article from the Straight
09 01 29 Laurence Putnam
Get real! The NDP came close last time, but dont let that fool you.
Two things to keep in mind;
1) last time NDP ran popular councilman Craig Keating (who topped the polls in November's municipal election) who ran a great campaign. They won't have that good a candidate this time.
2) The BC Liberals' Katherine Whittred did not run a great campaign. A new candidate bringing enthusiasm and energy to a real campaign is going to steam roll whoever the no-name NDP candidate is going to be.
It is worth noting that Craig Keating got the best NDP result in the history of this riding. Even David Schreck, the last NDP candidate who won the riding in 1991 got less than 40%, and owed his election victory to the vote split caused between the BC Liberal candidate and popular North Vancouver Mayor Marilyn Baker, may she rest in peace, who garnered a respectable 25% of the vote for Social Credit.
Without Keating, the NDP don't have a chance of duplicating that success.
09 01 17 p. kelly
I'm going out on a limb here to suggest the NDP will take this seat, but I don't think its that big a reach. The NDP took this seat twice in elections where the NDP defeated the incumbent (1972 and 1991). Colin Gableman and David Schreck were elected in those respective elections.
Unlike other areas of the North Shore, this seat is relatively middle class (as opposed to the upper crust wealth of the British Properties, etc).
In 2005, the BC Liberals only won this seat back with a 5% lead on the NDP (44% to 39%). If the NDP keeps leading in the polls like they have been, then seats like this are poised to flip to the NDP in the event of a change of governments.
09 01 17 Predictor
North Shore has arguable been the most reliable Liberal bastion in Greater Vancouver. While this was the only seat (of the four) that went NDP before 1996, Whittred was able to post fairly healthy margins in the past three elections (well, being a minister help!) Whoever takes over from her would have to screw up pretty royally to lose this one.

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