Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-15 23:32:49

Constituency Profile


Aglukkaq, Leona

Anawak, Jack Iyerak

Rocchi, Spencer

Tootoo, Hunter

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (36/36 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Leona Aglukkaq


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15 10 18 Marco Ricci
I tend to think that Conservative Leona A. will narrowly hold on here, but it's hard to know for sure in these Northern ridings because the dynamics are very removed from the rest of Canada.
A larger part of the vote is for the candidate, rather than the party itself, as is the case in most parts of the country.
Eg. that is how NDP Leader Audrey MacLaughlin managed to hold onto the Yukon in 1993 despite the NDP being reduced to only 9 seats in Canada and losing official party status.
In the case of Nunavut, what gives the Conservatives the chance of holding on is that the NDP decided to recruit Jack Anawak to run against Hunter Tootoo.
Hunter Tootoo would probably be in a stronger position if Jack Anawak wasn't running, but it appears that Anawak (who is actually a Justin Trudeau supporter who was photographed with him only a few months ago) is running because he is jealous of Tootoo getting the nomination.
One of the editors of the main newspaper in Nunavut said this last month -- Tootoo would probably have the edge, but Anawak may split the vote and allow Leona A. to win.
It's interesting that Mulcair traveled all the way up here a couple of weeks ago, and that Trudeau was here last week. Perhaps both parties feel they have a shot. But that's why it could be the Conservatives who end up winning here.
TCTC until Election Night.
15 10 14 Monkey Cheese
Despite wishful thinking from Conservative partisans, I think the Liberals will win here. At a recent debate, Leona was booed and laughed at by the audience. Nunavut Health and Justice Minister Paul Okalik even read the newspaper whenever Leona was speaking. She could have been a great voice for Nunavut and First Nations, but instead she chose to become Harper's puppet in the region. As I said before, this time around we'll see more First Nations going out to vote and I suspect that they won't be supporting the Conservatives. Nunavut will go with the national trend, which is currently showing an increasing Liberal lead. Leona is done.
15 10 12 Teddy Boragina
people might claim otherwise, but, there is, in fact, a 'party vote' up north.
I'd estimate there is about 1000 NDP votes in the territory, no matter who the NDP picks as a candidate, and about 1500 Liberal and 1500 Tory votes as well.
People might be saying that the NDP and Liberals have strong candidates, but, in 2011 the Liberals had a strong candidate, and it did not matter. In 2008 the Greens had a strong candidate, and he didn't even break 1K votes. A 'popular' Independent in 2004 only managed 15%.
There is, however, and interesting trend.
1979 - new riding. Won by the NDP's Peter Ittinuar.
Peter would be re-elected in 1980
Peter then left his party, and lost 2K votes, though, criminal convictions probably did not help.
In 1984, without a 'true' incumbent (same person, same party) the riding was won by the Tories, Thomas Suluk.
In 1988 there was again no incumbent, and the Liberals won, Jack Anawak.
In 1993, the incumbent won. Jack Anawak.
In 1997, no incumbent, the Liberals won, Nancy-Karetak-Lindell. during this election, NDPer Hunter Tootoo did well.
She would be re-elected in 2000, 2004, and 2006.
In 2008, Aglukkaq won, in a race with no incumbent. during that race, she beat Peter Ittinuar, the Green.
In 2011, she beat Paul Okalik, the Liberal.
Now she faces Jack Anawak, the NDPer, and Hunter Tootoo, the Liberal.
There is a trend, if you can see it. Nunavut likes re-electing it's sitting MP, and is willing to accept candidates who change party.
This indicates, to me, that the sitting MP will be re-elected.
15 10 13 Monkey Cheese
Since it doesn't look like we'll be getting a riding poll here, I think that this one should finally be called for the Liberals. 308 has been consistently calling Nunavut for the Liberals throughout the entire election campaign and if the territory goes with the national trend (which has the Liberals in first), then Hunter Tootoo should be elected here. Justin Trudeau campaigned here a few days ago and received a warm reception. Leona may be a more visible minister, but she's been a highly ineffective and incompetent minister to say the least. There are enough angry First Nations voters in this riding to ensure that it will go Liberal.
15 10 07 Craig Hubley
I think the 21 days given to offshore oil to cap any leak tears it. If this region is afraid of something, it's an oil spill ruining its coasts.
This riding will follow the Atlantic trend and vote Liberal. Leona will likely find herself a very nice job working liaison with the feds or oil companies, frankly her usefulness to the people of Nunuvat is elsewhere.
We probably won't see a riding level poll but I'm calling the whole region now, and I'm predicting a Conservative wipeout in seats similar to 1993 as Conservative voters shift en masse to the Liberals to get government MPs that will spend that promised Trudeau deficit spending in their own riding.
15 10 02 R.O.
Maybe it was just me but I couldn't help but wonder why Mulcair spent 2 days in Nunavut this week. It hasn't really been mentioned as a possible ndp riding by many ? with so many close races all over the country it just seems like an odd place to go. Nunavut also seems like a riding where an incumbent would have an advantage as its more about the candidate than parties from what I have read. However it's a tough riding to get a feel for as its so large yet has so few voters. Leona Aglukkaq has been mp since 2008 and a strong candidate for the conservatives. Its true the ndp are running a former mp Jack Anawak but its been a while since he was mp. It does seem to be an interesting election in the Nunavut if nothing else.
15 09 25 celt9
This riding is full of popular candidates which gives each candidate somewhat of a chance of winning and the NDP and the Greens are probably not going to win. The Liberals are probably going to pull it off because the candidate is local and popular and so is the Conservative candidate but I'm calling this one for the Liberals.
Cette circonscription est plein de candidats populaires qui donne à chaque candidat un peu de chance de gagner et le NPD et les Verts ne sont probablement pas va gagner . Les libéraux vont probablement retirer parce que le candidat est locale et populaire et est donc le candidat conservateur, mais que je suis appelant celui-ci pour les libéraux .
15 09 21 Brian L
Leona Aglukkaq lost this riding when she took no interest in the House of Commons Question Period that was centered on Northern and Native issues and wasn't allowed to answer questions on issues she was responsible for as a minister. Instead, while some other minister or parliamentary secretary answered questions she should have answered, she sat and read the newspaper and appeared that she was not even paying attention to issues that affected her own constituents.
Aglukkaq, an incompetent minister at best, should go down in flames on October 19.
15 09 18 John
My understanding is that party lines play a lot less important role in the high arctic.

Now in Nunuvut, the incumbent is also a cabinet minister in the Harper cabinet. So she is cabinet material.
Watch for the Conservatives to keep this one.
15 09 16 Monkey Cheese
308 has been showing Nunavut as a steady Liberal gain for the past two weeks now and as of today (September 16), gives them a 63% chance of winning this riding. If Nunavut goes with the national trends, which shows the Conservatives at least 10% lower then the last election and the Liberals are at least 10% higher, the math alone should help them win here. Leona may be in Cabinet, but I don't recall her being that strong of a minister or doing much for First Nations in the riding. The Liberals have a strong candidate and with a more angry and motivated First Nations base, that just might be enough to finally knock Leona off.
15 08 26 Marco Ricci
308 currently shows this riding as being a 56% chance of going Liberal (August 25, 2015
The NDP is currently projected to finish 3rd here, so it's probably best for the 2 NDP predictors below to exercise some caution.
It's hard to know what impact former Liberal MP Jack Atanwak will have running for the NDP. He hasn't been the MP here for 2 decades, so he may get some votes, but it's possible that it will help the Conservatives here, rather than elevating the NDP to 1st.
15 08 26 R.O.
Leona Aglukkaq has the advantage of being the incumbent and higher profile in Ottawa , going into this campaign . its not a riding that has historically been conservative but she did manage to increase her share of the vote in 2011. The liberals are likely her main competitor but not out of the question for ndp to be as well. Both main candidates Hunter Tootoo and Jack Anawak have some profile in the riding . It is a competitive riding but I think she has somewhat of an advantage here . harper has also been to this riding a few times over the years during his northern visits and campaigned here once this election.
15 08 24 Gillian
Looks like things got interesting with the NDP nominating the popular former Liberal MP Jack Anawak for the riding!
15 08 23 Mr. Dave
Ex-Liberal M.P. from 1988 to 1997 for the former riding of Nunatsiaq, Jack Anawak, has been named the NDP candidate.
This makes this race one of the more interesting ones to watch.
15 08 12 Craig Hubley
Still TCTC. 308 has this at a dead heat with only 50% Con chance to win.
Harper is doing his obligatory North trip early to avoid questions about Nigel Wright, so early that it will be totally forgotten before October. The perception will probably be that Harper didn't come north at all for the campaign, or at least for 9 weeks when a usual campaign lasts only 5.
I think this should go Liberal but NDP and Green factor is hard to call. So few voters so strongly connected will be talking amongst themselves so much that there could well be a hold-your-nose trend to tactical vote here.
I do agree that only someone clearly identified as native can take this. Also no one expects Leona to leave politics and she may well get some very prominent federal post or ambassadorship or leadership at territory level. In any of which she'd get more done for people than under Harper. Had Leona remained Health Minister, I think she'd have been hard to remove, but as Environment Minister she's clearly fronting for big oil.
15 08 09 Anna Rasmund
Telling Shell it can take 21 days to cap an offshore oil blowout is going to affect the perception of Leona including by her neighbours. The motive of eliminating one of the least effective Ministers of the Environment ever is going to bring a lot of outside attention, money and offers to vote swap into this riding. If there's one thing people hugging coasts fear, it's the fate of Louisiana after the BP blowout. Leona is not assured of her seat.
15 08 07 Follow the Numbers
It's a bit rich for Stevo to accuse me of being partisan when all the information is out there in the open. There's the rising food prices the government has done nothing about, botched housing projects, inaction on missing and murdered Aboriginal women, and recently a complete absence from the CPC at the First Nations National conference. The AFN has identified 51 vulnerable ridings that the Conservatives could lose if First Nations get out the vote and it wouldn't surprise me if Nunavut was one of them.
The Liberals have nominated a former MLA and Speaker as their candidate. Threehundredeight has the Conservatives in a very slim lead in Nunavut, but with a strong candidate and a motivated First Nations vote, the Liberals can win this.
15 08 04 prairie bumpkin
Hunter Tootoo, Liberal candidate, will win based on experience and name recognition. However, this success will be hindered by current embarrassments of the Government of Nunavut's handling of the Qulliq Energy Corporation file after the popular president was fired and board of directors replaced. Now, QEC workers are on strike while fragile power plants are supposed to run themselves apparently. As the previous minister responsible for the QEC, this puts Tootoo in a tight spot. Meanwhile, this is buoyed with Agluqaak's declining popularity.
15 07 28 Monkey Cheese
The Liberals have just nominated Hunter Tootoo, a former MLA from 1999 - 2013. He also served as Speaker and is currently chair of the Nunavut Planning Commission. With the polls showing a very narrow Conservative lead in Nunavut, a strong Liberal candidate stacked against a weak Conservative cabinet minister should give the Liberals the edge here. This should not be considered a safe Conservative seat.
15 07 23 Prime Predictor
Not only is she a Minister, but Leona has stood up for Nunavut in issues that matter to the people there (hunting, teen suicide, etc.). Also, she doesn't take things for granted. CPC win.
15 07 06 Stevo
I wonder what Follow the Numbers is talking about re: 'poor treatment of Natives'? Doesn't seem to have any substance whatsoever and is one of those sound bites pulled out of thin air by overly partisan people. Regardless of Harper's imagined slights on Canadian aboriginals, it is worth noting that the Inuit in the high Arctic do not have anywhere near the same political culture or tendencies as aboriginals in Southern Canada.
15 07 05 NonPartisan
Aglukkaq is very popular in the riding, representing parts of it both provincially and municipaly. She should be able to hold on as the territories usually vote on popularity rather than party preference.
15 05 30 Follow The Numbers
Please. Aglukkaq is hardly a competent minister. Anyone remember her antics during Question Period when she read the newspaper? Stronger Liberal polling numbers in the North and Harper's poor treatment of First Nations will send her packing come October.
15 05 24 A.S.
I agree that it's erroneous to call Leona Aglukkaq 'low-profile'--she's dealt with enough hot-button/high-provile issues over her span of cabinet time, and in a way that suggests something deeper than 'token-female-Inuit' cynicism, i.e. she's a true master at the 'unflappable HarperCon' game. But overachievement relative to common wisdom does not equal electoral invulnerability, particularly given how the not-unfounded common wisdom has Nunavut as anything but 'typical' Conservative territory. Oh, the Con strategy will be typical, and consistent with 2011--keep steady-hand-on-the-tiller cool, and let the pretenders bicker themselves out of contention. But it works best when you're closer to 40% than 30% in the polls at large.
15 05 03
@Aaron H.
Your statement is inaccurate. I just checked the news and she had media interviews in the last month alone. The environment has been a hot issue for a number of years now - logically, if Harper did not trust her capabilities, she would not be
15 04 30 Aaron H.
I love how JJ considers Leona Aglukkaq a 'high profile minister'.
She is about as low profile as you can get because Stephen Harper and his boys in short pants don't trust her to make a proper statement. They certainly don't allow her to do press conferences because she will screw it up.
Moreover, the people in her riding don't think that she is interested in them after ignoring questions in the House of Commons that dealt directly with her riding.
Also, Eric Grenier on threehundredeight.com is predicting that under current circumstances a generic Liberal will have a 58% chance of beating the known Aglukkaq. That does not bode well for her chances against a known candidate, especially if the Liberals recruit a strong candidate.
I think that Aglukkaq is is a former MP and cabinet minister come October.
15 03 30 JJ
Nunavut typically votes based on candidate recognition, rather than across party lines. Aglukkaq has served as a high-profile Cabinet Minister for some 7 years now, in portfolios like Health and Environment, and Chair of the Arctic Council, all of which are highly relevant to the North. She has the advantage here.
Plus, PM Harper's signature annual visits to the North and program/funding announcements will help her keep her seat.
15 03 29 RoJo
Almost every prediction site gives this riding to the LPC in both 2008 and 2011, and were wrong. The hard work of Leona is under-appreciated by the rest of the country when her constituents clearly notice. She even defeated former Premier Paul Okalik in 2011. Even with the CPC and LPC tied in the polls federally, this should still be a CPC seat.
15 03 29 monkey
This is not a Conservative, Liberal or NDP riding, rather people vote based on local candidate, not party label. Since Leona is quite popular I suspect this will stay Conservative even if they lose nationally unless the NDP or Liberals nominate a star candidate. I am only not making a prediction as until we know who the Liberals or NDP nominate it cannot be called.
15 03 26 Carleton Student
We will hear a lot about this riding over the campaign, but the Minister and her team have the experience to win. This seat is different than the rest of our country.
15 03 25 Lee Stephenson
I don't agree with the previous submission. Leona won by 21% of the vote and this is a riding where the individual probably means more than party affiliation. With that said, a sitting Cabinet Minister means prime representation in Parliament and strong name recognition. So, the CPC has the upper hand here.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
An aboriginal Cabinet Minister should be an easy hold, but Conservatives have ignored indigenous issues too often, and insulted aboriginal people too many times, and especially ignored viable proposals from Nunuvat to focus on gas-to-liquid refining of their own offshore natural gas to make their own diesel. Leona's profile was purely symbolic, native health and especially native women's health outcomes have got worse under Mr. Harper.
Shifting her to the toilet-flush of the Harper environment ministry only acknowledged how little power she has, or will ever have, in that cabinet.
It's not beyond reason for the NDP and Greens to target and take Nunuvat with the right candidate. However, a sitting Cabinet minister re-elected in a Conservative-Liberal coalition might even get something done, esp. if she sat as an independent for the sake of focusing on First Peoples health and environment issues. She may be too tainted however by collaboration for any party but Harper's to take her.
Without the candidates nominated, it's just too early to call this one, but it sure is not a no-brainer hold.

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