Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Northwest Territories

Prediction Changed
2015-03-19 18:45:49

Constituency Profile


Bevington, Dennis Fraser

McLeod, Michael

Moore, John

Roland, Floyd

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 870.56%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   Northwest Territories
   (81/81 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Dennis Bevington


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15 10 17 DSR
I think that the NDP are still favoured with a respected incumbent but the result is likely to be a lot tighter - a majority in three figures rather than four - than seemed likely a month or so ago.
15 10 04 Craig Hubley
With the Yukon and Nunuvat campaign flagging, this is the NDP's only seat in the Arctic and they will work to hold it even as the other campaigns fail. Mulcair came to Nunuvat to keep the pressure on, but that will be perceived as a northern visit not just a Nunuvat visit, and it will help.
I withdraw my prediction that the coalition would be seen in the Arctic ocean... the Greens did not hold their momentum in Yukon and swaps were not arranged in large enough numbers despite the relatively small number they would have needed to hold it. So the north looks like a Liberal Yukon, an NDP NWT, and Nunuvat also likely going Liberal like Atlantic region generally.
15 09 23 C.E.
The most likely outcome will be that incumbent Mr. Bevington will retain his seat. He has the name recognition and incumbent advantage. I see the success of the parties to fall more within the national trend rather than local party politics. Generally speaking, there are two populations in Yellowknife (the largest voting population): Long term residents and transient workers (1-5year stints). Long term residents, again generally, I would suggest that they vote liberal/NDP (based on my experience living here). Transient workers would be more diverse in voting. This adds an element of unpredictablity.
Overall though, looking at this devoid of personal belief or bias, I would consider it likely that the NDP will retain this seat. At least with the best odds.
15 09 18 John
My understanding is that party lines play less of a role in the high arctic than they do in other parts of the country. So incumbency is going to play a much larger role here.
Bevington will keep this riding methinks.
15 09 06 R.O.
Always seems like an interesting race for the Northwest Territories seat. It has been held by ndp mp Dennis Bevington since 2006 and he has somewhat of an incumbent advantage going into this campaign. Conservatives who have come in second here the last 2 elections are running Floyd Roland a former member of the legislative assembly . liberals who at one time held the riding but have fallen to 3rd in last vote also have a new candidate Michael Mcleod . Dennis Bevington appears to have somewhat of an edge here but a tough riding to get a feel for
15 08 29 A.S.
I'm not sure whether CGD posted on '15 08 25' or '15 03 25'; because as of this writing, Liberal sure isn't 'the national trend', and we're also talking about an incumbent bidding for a fourth term for the as-of-this-writing frontrunning NDP here. I'll only shy from predicting Bevington because the Territories can be funny. But in the end, perhaps I shouldn't.
15 08 25 CGD
All 3 territories will end up Liberal, even at their current position in the polls. This one will be the toughest for them, but should end up in the Liberal column. Territories usually shift with the national trend.
15 07 13 Mr. Dave
On June 25th, Dennis Bevington announced that he would be seeking re-election as the M.P. for Northwest Territories.
Easy N.D.P. hold!
15 07 05 NonPartisan
The former Premier of the NWT has declared as the Conservative candidate. Since the Premier is not as much a household name in consensus governments compared to ones with the party system, it does not give the CPC a large advantage. Since Bevington is popular and has been here for a while, it will probably stay NDP.
15 05 30 Follow the Numbers
NWT is trickier to predict since neither the Liberals nor the NDP have nominated their candidates yet. The current numbers favour the NDP and unless the Liberals nominate a star candidate, they should have no problems holding the riding come October.
15 04 30 Gillian
The NDP should hold this seat, despite the Conservatives running a former (albeit unpopular) Premier.
15 04 14 Dr. Bear
Certainly TCTC, however I don't think the CPC have a chance here, even if the former premier is their nominee. I wasn't familiar with Floyd Roland, so I did a bit of research. He seems to be best known for surviving a no-confidence vote and for a sex scandal. Not exactly things that instill confidence in the voters. While I would suggest Bevington would win it again for the NDP, he has not declared if he intends to run again. Polling suggests a close NDP/Liberal race. The grits might make this interesting, especially if they land a candidate with name recognition.
15 03 31 JC
I woudn't call this for anyone yet, right now the Tories have Former Premier Floyd Roland as a nomination contestant and the Liberals have MLA Robert Hawkins as well as an guy named Kieron Testart. Dennis Bevington is another issue all together as it's unknown if he will run again. So for now I think this should be too close to call.
15 03 29 Dr. Bear
The numbers are actually indicating an NDP/Liberal tossup (with a slight edge to the NDP). That said, without any of the big three having nominated their candidate, it's hard to make a prediction. In the north, the candidates often have a greater impact on the race than in those races down south. Also, having a smaller population, a small sway in the voting intention can have a dramatic change in the election outcome. Too soon to tell.
15 03 29 monkey
This riding usually votes for the candidate rather than party so while I give the edge to Dennis Bevington, either the Tories or Liberals could snatch this if they choose a star candidate. Until they've nominated their candidates no predictions here.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Calling this an NDP hold simply because the numbers favour it and NWT is too vast a riding to organize for vote-swapping or any interest group or faction to flip a lot of votes. It's just not worth taking from the NDP, for any other party, but it's worth a great deal to the NDP to hold it, especially if Liberals win Nunuvat, hold Labrador, and Greens take Yukon.
The coalition will first be seen in the far North. Count on it.

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