Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Rivière-des-Mille-Îles


Prediction Changed
2015-07-15 15:32:05
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Gauthier, Érick

Lapointe, Linda

Liu, Laurin

Pinel, Félix

Quinteros, Luis

Ware, Alec


Population/populations
(2011 census)

102816


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

539910.30%
2575749.12%
581911.10%
1422327.12%
12422.37%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Rivière-des-Mille-Îles
   (180/207 polls, 86.10% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Laurin Liu
4426
21961
4653
12534
1058


   Marc-Aurèle-Fortin
   (27/207 polls, 13.90% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Alain Giguère
973
3796
1166
1689
184



 


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15 09 20 A.S.
99.233.125.239
The last time a non-Orange/Bloc-head posed a wouldbe serious challenge here was when Saint-Eustache Mayor (and current Senator) Claude Carignan made a much-hyped bid for the Cons in 2008--and for all his efforts, he got less than 20% of the vote. Now that the Bloc's basically DOA, it's gimme-five for yet another of the McGill Five.
15 05 24 Mr. Dave
24.142.45.16
Laurin Liu has not been an embarrassment as an M.P., even though she was one of the unexpected winners in 2011.
Along with all the other members of the 'McGill Five', she should be returning for a second term after the 2015 election.
NDP hold!
15 03 28 monkey
174.114.31.13
A fairly nationalist riding so should probably go NDP, but I am holding off calling as Quebecers are known for switching on a moment's notice.
15 03 24 Dr. Bear
174.89.199.19
One the McGill five, Ms. Liu was an 'accident' of the orange wave. Okay, pretty much all of the Quebec NDP wins were an accident, but this time the NDP can't take things for granted. It's true that orange is still the new light blue in Quebec and that the NDP are still expected to win many of the former BQ seats. The north shore of Montreal continues to be kind to the NDP but the Liberals have a veteran politician as their standard bearer. Ms Liu will have a fight on her hands.



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