| ||15 10 18
|Time to call this strange 4-way race. It'll probably need a recount, but with the winds blowing red, I'm calling it Liberal the day before the election.|
| ||15 10 17
|Polls in the Sageunay region and in Montreal show the CPC performing WORSE than they did in 2011 - so if the regional polls for Quebec are accurate, it looks like all of the CPC support is concentrated in Quebec City and the area south of the St. Lawrence. Looks like the CPC may be racking in massive margin victories in this area (if the polls are to be correct). For that reason I predict a CPC pick up.|
| ||15 10 02
|A good 4 or 5 polls have been in agreement that the Conservatives are sitting in the 20-25% range in Quebec and the NDP, while still leading in the province, are way off their 2011 Quebec numbers. Very hard to see this seat not returning to the Conservatives even if the rest of Quebec City remains out of reach.|
| ||15 09 27
|I agree that if the recent bump of a few points for the Conservatives in Quebec City over the Niquab issue holds for the remaining 3 weeks, it looks like Gerard Deltell could take this one away from the NDP afterall.|
And since we now have seen the poll for Richmond-Arthbaska showing the CPC star candidate ahead there, it's certainly plausible that the CPC star candidate here could also be ahead.
| ||15 09 25
|Leger, EKOS, Forum and Nanos are showing CPC spike in Quebec City region (and QC overall). There is no way Deltell is losing at these levels.|
| ||15 09 24
|Teddy Boragina, I'm not sure if Latendresse was considered a star MP. It looks like she was a young & unknown candidate who got swept up in the Orange Wave like many other people in 2011.|
Some people in the Quebec press speculated earlier this year that the reason she decided to quit after one term was because the NDP wanted to bring in star candidate Daniel Caron to run for the NDP against Conservative star candidate Gerard Deltell. Some people speculated that the NDP feared she might not be able to hold the riding against a Conservative star.
In any event, this riding has shifted back & forth this year in terms of how it has been leaning. Earlier in the year it appeared to be a likely Conservative pickup, then this Summer it looked like the big NDP bump in Quebec would wipe out that possibility. Now with NDP numbers dropping in Quebec in the new Leger poll, it's possible that the Conservatives could indeed be competitive here again:
| ||15 09 24
|Je maintiens ma prédiction de départ. Le NPD perd des plumes et les Conservateurs gagnent quelques points au Québec, effet accentué dans la région de Québec. Deltell jouit d'une popularité personnelle qui l'avantage, devant un candidat néo-démocrate peu connu malgré son haut calibre. Le Bloc est inexistant. Il y a une semaine ou deux, la FTQ annonçait son intention d'appuyer le NPD dans la région. Ses sondages laissaient entendre que le NPD était en tête ou deuxième dans les circonscriptions ciblées. En toute honnêteté, la seule circonscription où le NPD pouvait être deuxième était Louis-Saint-Laurent, à un moment où le NPD menait outrageusement dans les sondages. Gain de Gérard Deltell pour les Conservateurs.|
| ||15 09 22
|Latendresse was a star MP. One thing that you can see from star MPs is that they tend to retain their ability to beat-the-party (so to speak) even at their first election.|
That means if the party 'should' gain 10 points in a riding, a star MP could make them gain 20, and they will make them gain that 20 right from the get go, before anyone really 'knows' who they are. Why?
Simply, they are very high-quality politicians, and anyone who meets them will know that. Knocking on doors will get the word out, as well talking to certain *community leaders*
By *community leaders* I don't mean mayors, I mean the kind of person who people like you - while at work - will actively want to talk to at the watercooler to hear their opinion.
Long story short, the NDP did better here last time than they should have, and, will do worse this time than they should, due to the skewing effects of a 'Star Candidate'
Verner might have been presented as a star, but was never a star, she just happened to be in the right place at the right time. Deltell, however, has consistently beat expectations. As such, you are switching from an NDP star to a tory star, and the pure math, as such, hides the truth.
| ||15 09 17
|Quebec is a two-horse race featuring the NDP and the Liberals. The Conservatives will hold on to a couple of strongholds like Beauce, but they will not gain new ground. The BQ vote will continue collapsing to the NDP.|
Look for the NDP to lose some marginal seats to the Liberals while easily keeping the Tories and the Bloc at bay.
| ||15 09 05
|The *fact* that Caron's as strong as he is is *exactly* what'd give voters incentive to go with the presumed-NDP-Quebec-landslide flow. And while Deltell has former-MNA advantage, he doesn't have incumbent-MP advantage like Josee Verner did. Just little subtle details that might help with the coin-tossing here.|
| ||15 09 03
|This is going to be close as Caron is a strong candidate but given Detell's experience in elected office I think the CPC win this seat.|
| ||15 08 30
|| Oliver May|
| Too close to call at the moment. Obviously the NDP will be expected to win this seat and I currently don't see any risk of the NDP losing any other seat on the North shore of Québec City, at the moment.|
The key question is whether the Cons are in total free fall or not and how much of a difference does Deltell makes. With 50 days to go I am not going to call this riding but if the Cons cannot win this then it doesn't bode well in the rest of the city.
| ||15 08 27
|With the latest poll numbers looking quite miserable for the CPC, there is no way they will pick up this riding. It's going to stay NDP|
| ||15 08 26
|308 now shows this riding as having only a 56% chance of a Con win. So perhaps still leading Con, but not the sure thing some assumed it would be earlier in the year.|
August 25, 2015 - 56% chance of Con win in Louis-Saint-Laurent:
| ||15 08 21
|Since I posted the Léger poll last week, the Québec numbers have continued to get worse for the Conservatives. Today the new CROP poll showed the Conservatives down at 13% -- that is below the 16% level of support they received in Quebec in 2011.|
Most significantly, CROP reported that the CPC is now BELOW the NDP in the Québec City region. As the CROP analysts said, the Conservatives are now at risk of not gaining any seats here. This riding should be changed to TCTC.
CROP (Que city only; Aug 12-17): 45-NDP (back in the lead) | 23-CPC| 18-L | 13-B
| ||15 08 17
|308 calls this 85% Con win and given the choice of candidate it seems likely.|
However, it's a no-incumbent situation with both NDP and Conservative candidates new to federal politics. A potential NDP foreign minister is a great pickup opportunity for the riding, so it depends how opportunistic they are, and whether a government MP is more attractive than a firebrand.
This one is TCTC on the psychology of the riding, I don't think it's going to be settled on ideology nor history but on which candidate is perceived as having the most power. A potential future Conservative leader from Quebec? I doubt it as the Harper party is conceived, but, perhaps, the ADQ thinks it can take the Conservatives over and rebuild them somehow...?
| ||15 08 16
|Too soon to call this riding for the Conservatives until we are closer to October.|
In this weekend's new Léger poll, the Conservatives have fallen in support, and so they are not guaranteed to win back seats in Québec City. The Conservatives dropped 5 points Nationally, while the Liberals rose 3 points & the NDP rose 1 point.
The Conservatives do remain competitive in Québec City, but right now it is a 4-pt lead for CPC in Québec City.
| ||15 07 05
|Deltell, a three term front bench MNA and a former ADQ party leader, has the highest profile out of all the CPC candidates. The fact his provincial seat voted in a Liberal rather than another CAQ MNA after he resigned his seat to run federally proves he is a well liked Constituency politician. With no NDP incumbent, this is going to be a CPC gain.|
| ||15 04 09
|Gerard Deltell will offer his candidacy for the Conservatives. A popular 3 time elected MNA, he should have no problem reclaiming an open seat which voted Conservative in 2006 and 2008.|
| ||15 04 13
|If the CPC nominates Gerard Deltell, then they will win this one. If they choose someone else, it's TCTC.|
| ||15 04 07
|M. Deltell s'est démissionné comme deputé provincial pour Chauveau, et se présentera a Louis St. Laurent, je crois qu'il est temps de marquer cette circonscription pour les Conservateurs. |
| ||15 04 06
|Radio-Canada confirmed today that Gérard Deltell, CAQ MNA for Chauveau, will announce tomorrow that he is running for the Conservatives in Louis-Saint-Laurent.|
| ||15 04 06
|NDP MP Alexandrine Latendresse decided not to run again, and the NDP has a new candidate in Daniel Caron, a former ambassador to Ukraine from 2008-2011.|
Caron was acclaimed as the candidate shortly after Latendresse announced her departure, and some people speculate that this was so the NDP could improve its foreign affairs credentials.
I guess the question is whether or not Mr. Caron's background as an ambassador helps win votes. It's a good résumé to have, but Caron is not a household name in Québec because most voters don't know the names of our ambassadors.
The other factor here is to see who the Conservative candidate will be and whether the Conservative numbers hold up in Québec City. It has been widely-reported by the press that PM Harper travels to Québec City every month to target this area.
Perhaps the reason the NDP recruited Mr. Caron is because it was worried about losing this seat to the Conservatives?
Too soon to tell.
| ||15 04 06
|This was the Conservatives' best Quebec riding in 2004 (in defeat) and second-best in 2006 after Beauce. 2011 must logically have been the high-water mark for the NDP in Quebec and unless Trudeaumania breaks out in the conservative Quebec City suburbs, I believe this seat goes back to the Tories.|
| ||15 03 28
|Too early to tell however if the Conservatives win back any seats in Quebec City, but this would be the first one to fall to them. If they can stay above 20% in the province, they should retake this, but if they fall back into the teens (which is quite possible) I suspect the NDP will then hold this.|
| ||15 03 26
|Easy Conservative win - that is if Gerard Deltell ends up running for the CPC. Should be much closer otherwise but the way it looks Deltell will be the candidate and the Conservatives will have a healthy victory.|
| ||15 03 25
|Calling this NDP on three grounds:|
1. Little chance of a Bloc recovery here meaning Pequiste votes will shift to the only other party that is committed to negotiate separation on a 50%+1 vote, the NDP. That was the logic of shifting PQ votes to the NDP, making it much harder to dispute that position with federalist representatives than separatist ones, while withdrawing all PQ/BQ talent to rebuild the PQ itself.
2. Mulcair more popular than Trudeau and radically more so than Harper in Quebec. In 2011 there were zero federalist leaders living in Quebec to vote for (Layton's claim was specious though he played it up very well and became the stand-in for a Quebec leader) and in 2015 there are two. The federalists will thus also support the NDP here, as the Liberals are way back and Trudeau will probably only lose popularity in Quebec before Oct.
3. Liberal star candidate very likely to affect foreign policy for the smarter on Ukraine. Quebec hates war. They don't want a war with Russia. A Ukraine-smart MP can help keep Quebec out of war. It'll sell.
Far better than attacking Russians just for speaking Russian, anyway.
| ||15 03 24
|With the loss of the NDP incumbent and CPC fortunes seemingly rising in the Quebec City region, this seems like the most likely Conservative gain in the province. It was an early target by the CPC and they solidly held it until the orange wave. That said, the NDP have scored an excellent candidate in Daniel Caron, the former Canadian ambassador to Ukraine. This Liberals also can't be totally discounted here, as they have wont his riding in the past. If CPC support solidifies, then they will win it. Otherwise, it's an NDP hold.|
| ||15 03 16
|Ancienne circonscription de banlieue de la conservatrice Josée Verner aujourd'hui sénatrice. Selon toute vraisemblance, le député provincial Gérard Deltell (CAQ), très connu et apprécié, sera candidat pour les Conservateurs. Malgré la présence d'un nouveau candidat NPD possédant un curriculum vitae impressionnant - mais inconnu de la population-, je prévois un gain conservateur. |