Election Prediction Project
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Canada Federal Election - 2015

La Pointe-de-l'Île


Prediction Changed
2015-10-17 01:11:35
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Beaulieu, Mario

Benoit, Ben 97

Cox, David J.

Larose, Jean-François

Morissette, Guy

Péclet, Ève

Royer, GeneviĂšve

Simard, Marie-Chantale


Population/populations
(2011 census)

103512


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

38017.65%
2361547.53%
501610.10%
1608132.37%
9361.88%
Other 2380.48%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   La Pointe-de-l'Île
   (206/236 polls, 88.34% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Ève Péclet
3352
21413
3916
14455
846
Other191


   Honoré-Mercier
   (30/236 polls, 11.66% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Paulina Ayala
449
2202
1100
1626
90
Other47



 


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15 10 11 JFBreton
184.161.172.124
Que les choses peuvent changer en 80 jours. Plusieurs facteurs entrent ici en ligne de compte. RemontĂ©e des LibĂ©raux sur l'Ăźle de MontrĂ©al. RemontĂ©e du Bloc et chute du NPD au QuĂ©bec. Circonscription trĂšs francophone et nationaliste de MontrĂ©al. Le Bloc bĂ©nĂ©ficie de la machine pĂ©quiste de Nicole LĂ©ger. MĂȘme si le nationalisme de Beaulieu ne me plait pas, je ne serais pas surpris que le Bloc l'emporte par une mince marge.
15 09 22 #ABC51
199.7.157.46
Beaulieu is a useless bigot, and most prospective BQ voters know it.
If a real leader like Duceppe is crashing and burning in his own riding, how in the holy heck can we expect a clown like Beaulieu to do any better?
Score another easy hold for the good guys against yet another BQ nonthreat.
15 09 06 Teddy Boragina
69.165.135.72
As mentioned by others, this is indeed the most separatist part of Montreal, however, it's also - among Francophones - one of the more 'right-wing' areas of Montreal, as shown by the CAQ and ADQ vote in these areas.
If the Bloc were at 20% provincewide, this would be a great candidate for a 'bloc victory' but as they are stuck closer to 15%, I just don't see it at this time.
15 09 05 JFBreton
184.161.172.124
Duceppe qui semble-t-il se fait laminer dans Laurier, je vois mal comment Beaulieu pourrait l'emporter dans La-Pointe-de-L'Ile. Victoire du NPD.
15 09 02 Tony
71.7.250.207
NDP win. Had Beaulieu stayed as leader of the Bloc it would be a different story but I think Peclet will retain this seat.
15 08 23 2015
142.166.222.131
I think by now I could actually see the NDP winning by a wider margin than last time, especially now that this seat won't be targeted as much with Duceppe leading the way.
15 07 09 Mr_vince
167.92.126.10
Though call.
If Beaulieu was the leader of BQ, i'll tend to say easy NDP win BUT that is Duceppe and Pointe-Aux-Trembles is a big big separatist part of Montreal's island!
People don't especially like or hate Beaulieu. But Duceppe is a big shot honorable guy. People might vote for him more than they'll vote for Beaulieu.
I predict BQ by less than 5% over NDP
15 06 21 A.S.
99.233.100.50
My feeling is, Beaulieu will be more of a net liability for Duceppe than Duceppe will be a net asset for Beaulieu--all the more so if he's being trotted out as a 'star candidate' in a supertarget seat. Like, a Franco version of a Libman/Galganov-axis 'Angryphone'? (Then again, PKP won his provincial seat even as a 'net liability' to the PQ. But he's a heck of a lot more 'mainstream' than Beaulieu.)
15 06 09 Observer
24.156.205.18
Selon La Presse, on a des nouvelles ce matin que Gilles Duceppe sera de retour comme chef Bloquiste. Mario Beaulieu s'est rendu compte que sous son direction, le Bloc Quebecois va nulle-part et risquait d'etre éffacé du carte électorale, donc, on a arrivé a une enetente qu reverra M. Duceppe a son ancien position.
Est ce que ca changera beaucoup? Avant d'accepter, l'équipe de M. Duceppe a prs une sondage, et a découvert que Le Bloc attirera 3 fois des voix sur son directon qu'a celle de M. Beaulieu. Sans doute Il pourrait attirer de l'argent et des candidates, possiblement des vedettes de son anien équipe.
Alors je crois que le Bloc poura faire in impacte non-negligible cette élection, en reprendre des sieges en Monterégie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Mauricie, Lac St Jean et en quelques circonscriptions en Estrie.
Restez branchés.
According to La Presse, there is news today that Gilles Duceppe will be returning to the leadership of the Bloc Quebecois. Mario Beaulieu had come to terms with the fact that the party was going nowhere fast under his leadership, perhaps even looking a a complete wipeout, so they arrived at a deal that would see M. Duceppe return to his old job.
Will that change much? Before accepting, Duceppe's team commissioned a poll and found that the Bloc would attract 3 times as many votes under Duceppe than they would under M. Beaulieu. No doubt he will also bring in some much needed money, and some candidates, perhaps many from his old caucus.
Therefore I believe the Bloc could pose a threat to win seats in Montéregie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Maurice. Lac St Jean and some ridings in the Eastern Townships.
Stay tuned
15 03 30 2015
142.166.223.138
MĂȘme si leur chef est ici, je pense pas que le Bloc va gagner un siĂšge dans l'est de MontrĂ©al. NPD par ~5% ici.
15 03 24 B.W.
70.26.26.78
Unlike previous Bloc Quebecois leaders such as Lucien Bouchard and Gilles Duceppe, Mario Beaulieu is a hardline sovereigntist who is no stranger to controversy having been head of the SSJB for its anti-english and xenophobic views. If he runs on a platform that mostly involves Quebec Independence and identity politics rather than issues concerning Quebec at the federal level, this could further sink the Bloc Quebecois in support much like it did with its provincial counterpart, the Parti Quebecois in the 2014 Quebec election when it ran a similar platform. It could also affect Beaulieu's electoral chances in La Pointe de Ile as well.
15 03 19 Mr. Montreal
184.161.92.32
C'est dans cette circonscription de l'Est de l'Île de MontrĂ©al que le chef du Bloc Mario Beaulieu se prĂ©sentera. Étant le plus controversĂ© de tous les chefs de l'histoire du parti, M. Beaulieu bĂ©nĂ©ficie toutefois d'une dĂ©putĂ©e sortante pas aussi connue. Or, ce n'est pas tous les jours que les Ă©lecteurs ont la dĂ©licatesse de faire entrer les chefs de parti aux Communes. LĂ©ger avantage nĂ©o-dĂ©mocrate pour le moment.
15 03 16 JFBreton
96.23.214.160
Mario Beaulieu, le chef du Bloc quĂ©bĂ©cois, entend ĂȘtre candidat dans cette circonscription. Il pourra bĂ©nĂ©ficier de la machine Ă©lectorale extrĂȘmement bien rodĂ©e de Nicole LĂ©ger, dĂ©putĂ©e pĂ©quiste du coin. Victoire du Bloc.



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