Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles


Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:27:05
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Baudet, Nathalie

Côté, Jean

Day, Anne-Marie

Paul-Hus, Pierre

Turmel, Marc Antoine


Population/populations
(2011 census)

103331


2011 Result/rsultats (redistributed)

1628830.29%
2419744.99%
35116.53%
875616.28%
8371.56%
Other 1890.35%
Reference - Pundits Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Charlesbourg-Haute-Saint-Charles
   (216/220 polls, 99.59% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Anne-Marie Day
16220
24131
3505
8732
832
Other189


   Louis-Saint-Laurent
   (4/220 polls, 0.41% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Alexandrine Latendresse
68
66
6
24
5



 


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15 10 17 Tes
147.194.105.107
Polls in the Sageunay region and in Montreal show the CPC performing WORSE than they did in 2011 - so if the regional polls for Quebec are accurate, it looks like all of the CPC support is concentrated in Quebec City and the area south of the St. Lawrence. Looks like the CPC may be racking in massive margin victories in this area (if the polls are to be correct). For that reason I predict a CPC pick up.
15 10 12 Dr. Bear
86.21.157.198
Not so fast there! Yes everyone is excited by the developing races but let's look at the numbers and do some math...
In 2011 on e-day NDP got provincially 43% and the CPC got provincially 16.5%. Current polling puts the NDP at 33% provincially and the CPC at 14% provincially; both parties are down from 2011. Using these numbers to extrapolate an outcome, we have the NDP getting 34% in this riding and the CPC getting 26%. Another NDP win!
Now admittedly there are other factors to consider but the one thing that is clear is that the conservatives do not have this riding in the bag and calling it for team blue is very premature given the volatility in the polls.
15 10 12 Spx
70.53.241.122
While I agree with the Beauce predictions the Conservative vote in Quebec City is way more skittish and ridings here can go from Conservative to Bloc to NDP to Liberal in a few days time. I think a Conservative prediction is a bit pre-mature here. TCTC for now
15 10 11 Oliver May
96.22.144.210
I still think Anne-Marie can hang on here but now she will have to rely on strategic voting to keep the Cons out. Not as naturally conservative as some people seem to think.
15 10 10 Marco Ricci
99.241.63.7
I agree that this riding is probably now leaning Conservative.
1. Leger said yesterday that their new Quebec poll shows the Conservatives leading in Quebec City.
2. A Maclean's article this week by Martin Patriquin reports that even internal NDP polling puts them in a tight race with the Conservatives in this region.
We'll have to see if anything changes in the final week before calling it officially, but it may be that the Conservatives have now regained the edge here.
15 10 09 Neal Ford
24.156.205.18
I am now comfortable enough to say this riding will be sending a Conservative to Ottawa. Tory gains in the vote , especially in the Quebec City region spells breakthrough.
15 10 03 JFBreton
184.161.172.124
Before the last french debate on TVA, Jean-Marc Léger from Léger Marketing presented this poll for Quebec City area: Conservatives 48%, NDP 20%, Bloc 17%, Liberal 14%, Green 2%. For me, it's a gain of PCC in Charlesbourg-Haute-St-Charles.
15 09 30 Teddy Boragina
23.91.128.216
A week or so ago, a dozen or two Quebec ridings were changed to the NDP here at the EPP. Since then, the NDP has dropped in the polls in Quebec.
There are a number of ridings currently predicted to go NDP that could go to another party if polls continue to drop. They are:
Pierre-Boucher, Salaberry, Abitibi, Beauport, Charlesbourg, Rimouski, Louis Hebert, and LaSalle.
In this riding in particular... it wont matter who the CPC candidate is not if the CPC does well enough, and the NDP poor enough, across all of Quebec.
15 09 29 R.O.
24.146.23.226
This riding voted ndp in 2011 when Anne Marie Day first elected but had been conservative from 2006-2011 when Daniel Petit was mp. He is not back this year unlike a couple other mp's attempting comebacks however conservatives have a new candidate Pierre Paul Hus . with new polls coming out of Quebec like one from abacus data - 30 ndp , 24 lib , 21 cpc , 20 bloc . a riding like this could definity be one to watch.
Cette circonscription ont voté pour les néo-démocrates en 2011 lorsque Anne Marie Day d'abord élu mais avait été conservateur de 2006-2011 lorsque Daniel Petit était mp. Il n'est pas de retour cette année contrairement à un couple d'autres mp's tentative retours cependant conservateurs ont un nouveau candidat Pierre Paul Hus . avec de nouveaux sondages provenant de Québec comme l'un d'Abacus données - 30 néo-démocrates , 24 lib , 21 CPC , 20 bloc . une circonscription comme ce pourrait être un à regarder Definity.
15 09 25 Woodworth
24.114.95.73
Leger, EKOS, Forum and Nanos are showing CPC spike in Quebec City region (and QC overall). CPC will squeak a win here.
15 09 21 A.S.
99.233.125.239
Relative to his former provincial turf, Lawrence Cannon would have made more sense here than in Pontiac--but in the end, no Cannon + no Pelletier = no dice for a resounding Conservative comeback in the Capitale-Nationale. Though maybe marginally more so here, as it's further out and devoid of Old Quebec vestiges...so, reserving opinion just in case.
15 08 21 Balon
24.224.204.13
Three recent polls - CROP in Quebec, a national Abacus poll, and a Quebec-heavy Leger poll - all have the NDP at 40+ % in the province and the CPC and Bloc in the mid-teens. The CROP poll in particular has the NDP at 45% in the Quebec City region while the CPC are at 23%, LPC at 18% and Bloc at 13%. Kinda looking like a second Orange Crush.
While I assume Lebel and Bernier will win their seats for the Conservatives, with numbers like these, there is almost no chance the other ridings in this area will vote anything but NDP.
15 08 05 2015
198.164.171.177
A solid enough margin here, and with a lower profile CPC candidate than the rumours it is probably NDP by 5-10% with their recent rebound.
15 04 09 Jason Z
137.122.64.29
Rumours are Lawrence Cannon will make a political comeback in this riding for the CPC. If that is the case, this will be an easy Conservative win. If that isn't, it will be a close one between the NDP and CPC. Will come back to this riding at a later time.
15 03 25 Jack Cox
69.165.234.184
Right now based on polling in Quebec the Tories would take this riding.
15 03 25 JFBreton
96.23.214.160
Trop tôt pour prédire un gagnant ici. Ce sera assurément une lutte entre les conservateurs et les néo-démocrates. Reste à savoir quel sera l'effet d'entraînement de Deltell s'il se présente dans Louis-St-Laurent, la circonscription voisine. Et si les conservateurs maintiennent leur appui actuel dans les sondages.



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