Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Canada Federal Election - 2015

Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques


Prediction Changed
2015-10-17 01:16:11
 


 
Constituency Profile

Candidates:

Boutin, Louise

Cadieux, Pierre

Carignan, Johanne

Caron, Guy

CĂ´rriveau, SĂ©bastien CĂ´Rhino

Fortin, Francis


Population/populations
(2011 census)

84809


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

621814.56%
1836042.98%
41019.60%
1317030.83%
8672.03%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant


   Rimouski-Neigette-Témiscouata-Les Basques
   (215/215 polls, 100.00% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

    Incumbent:
Guy Caron
6218
18360
4101
13170
867



 


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15 09 30 Teddy Boragina
23.91.128.216
A week or so ago, a dozen or two Quebec ridings were changed to the NDP here at the EPP. Since then, the NDP has dropped in the polls in Quebec.
There are a number of ridings currently predicted to go NDP that could go to another party if polls continue to drop. They are:
Pierre-Boucher, Salaberry, Abitibi, Beauport, Charlesbourg, Rimouski, Louis Hebert, and LaSalle.
In this riding in particular... I actually just commented the other day. Fortin has 'coat tails' here that will be looking for other options given the lack of a F&D candidate. This could boost the bloc vote by 1 or 2 points, not much, but enough to possibly take the riding from the NDP.
15 09 28 Teddy Boragina
23.91.128.216
You may be wondering why I'm indicating a F&D 'win' in a riding where the F&D has no candidate.
A recent 'facebook heat map' has indicated that there is massive and overwhelming support in this riding for the party.
Now, facebook is not the most scientific study, and, as noted, there is no candidate who can win here, this time.
However, should Fortin retain his seat, and should we end this election with an unstable minority, it's not out of the question that we are back to the polls in 6 months, and at that time, the F&D would almost certainly run here, and frankly, are likely to win.
15 09 21 A.S.
99.233.125.239
Caron's overachievement-by-NPD-standards in Rimouski-et-al in 2006/08 foreshadowed big things to come in the 'unlikely' event of an Orange Crush-type phenomenon--and sure enough, there's talk of him meriting a high cabinet portfolio (finance, even?) in the event of of a Mulcair government. The worst case scenario? Rimouski as the lone South Shore NDP outpost east of Sherbrooke.
15 09 17 #ABC51
24.212.221.36
While the NDP will lose some ground to the Liberals among non-Francophone voters, all signs point to a continued collapse of the Bloc Québécois vote to the benefit of Team Mulcair. Look for the the BQ to finish with no seats on October 19.
15 08 05 Dr. Bear
69.171.128.59
Duceppe hasn't been able to rekindle BQ support. They're still below what they had in the 2011 election. Given that the NDP are serious contenders for government, it's unlikely that voters will swing to the BQ. More likely that people who voted BQ in 2011 (be cause of incumbency) will now vote NDP. Of course this can all change during the course of the campaign. As for now the NDP are going to hold this seat.
15 06 09 Observer
24.156.205.18
Selon La Presse, on a des nouvelles ce matin que Gilles Duceppe sera de retour comme chef Bloquiste. Mario Beaulieu s'est rendu compte que sous son direction, le Bloc Quebecois va nulle-part et risquait d'etre éffacé du carte électorale, donc, on a arrivé a une enetente qu reverra M. Duceppe a son ancien position.
Est ce que ca changera beaucoup? Avant d'accepter, l'équipe de M. Duceppe a prs une sondage, et a découvert que Le Bloc attirera 3 fois des voix sur son directon qu'a celle de M. Beaulieu. Sans doute Il pourrait attirer de l'argent et des candidates, possiblement des vedettes de son anien équipe.
Alors je crois que le Bloc poura faire in impacte non-negligible cette élection, en reprendre des sieges en Monterégie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Mauricie, Lac St Jean et en quelques circonscriptions en Estrie.
Restez branchés.
According to La Presse, there is news today that Gilles Duceppe will be returning to the leadership of the Bloc Quebecois. Mario Beaulieu had come to terms with the fact that the party was going nowhere fast under his leadership, perhaps even looking a a complete wipeout, so they arrived at a deal that would see M. Duceppe return to his old job.
Will that change much? Before accepting, Duceppe's team commissioned a poll and found that the Bloc would attract 3 times as many votes under Duceppe than they would under M. Beaulieu. No doubt he will also bring in some much needed money, and some candidates, perhaps many from his old caucus.
Therefore I believe the Bloc could pose a threat to win seats in Montéregie, Laurentides, Lanaudiere, Gaspésie, Maurice. Lac St Jean and some ridings in the Eastern Townships.
Stay tuned
15 03 25 JFBreton
96.23.214.160
Guy Caron est bien implanté dans sa circonscription et le NPD demeure fort chez les francophones et en région. Victoire NPD ici.



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