Election Prediction Project

Canada Federal Election - 2015


Prediction Changed
2015-10-18 00:24:17

Constituency Profile


Bragdon, Richard

Harvey, TJ

Kitchen, Robert

Wishart, Terry

(2011 census)


2011 Result/résultats (redistributed)

Other 70.02%
Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2013 Rep)

Component Riding(s)
Circonscription(s) constituant

   (180/187 polls, 96.10% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Mike Allen

   (7/187 polls, 3.90% of voters in new riding)
   2011/2008/2004 Predictions
   Reference - Pundits’ Guide (2003 Rep Order)

Hon. Keith Ashfield


Put your political/campaign ad here! Replace it with your campaign ad! See sponsorship details.

15 10 17 PC
Jean Chretien came to Grand Falls yesterday and they rented the arena and all of 75 people showed up. When they used to have several hundred if not over a thousand in the past from the big liberal establishment here. There are virtually no lawn signs in town and we know the well funded tories and libs have plenty of them.
A rally was turned into a whistle stop. If the liberals cant motivate the vote in GF they are in trouble in this riding. Its partly that bad provincial liberal blood with its stark fiscal austerity making its way and the bad economy overall through both tory and liberal regimes (people blame the forthcoming closing of the former McCain plant to Nafta/TPP policies and the threat by provincial libs to close the local hospital). So Im not a betting man here. I think it could even be a 3 horse race.
15 10 16 SC
Hmm, decision time for the remaining uncalled ridings. I'll say the Tories keep this one; New Brunswick is the strongest part of Atlantic Canada for the Tories, and it seems like the Liberals are in a dogfight. The Liberals briefly managed to hold this last decade, first due to vote-splitting between the PCs and Alliance, and then due to defecting PC voters, but unlike in much of the Atlantic it seems like the Tobique PC vote has come around more firmly for the new party. Conservative hold.
15 10 16 Atlantic Election Guy
This is my pick for a surprise in NB this election. An earlier poster rightly pointed out that this riding goes up to Grand Falls, a more traditionally Liberal part of NB. With Harvey making the Carleton area more competitive, this will be the shocker on Election night with Tobique Mactaquac going red once again.
15 10 12 Teddy Boragina
At the risk of being ignorant to local factors:
The math does not, in any way, support the Liberals storming to victory here when other NB ridings - ridings where the Liberals traditionally do better - are still toss ups vs the Tories.
The excuse given is TJ Harvey is popular locally, but I don't see much evidence of that. In fact, he lost the nomination here, and only got the nod after it turned out the guy who won the nomination had broken the rules. Supposedly, about 140 votes were stolen in the race, that saw Harvey lose by 70 votes, meaning, at best, Harvey was the choice of only 55% of *Liberals* in the riding.
Until I see more concrete evidence TJ Harvey is actually and truly locally popular, I will continue to doubt this riding is going Red based on the current polls.
15 10 11 M
With the Liberals polling over 50% in Atlantic Canada, only a couple of NDP members that may survive. Tories are facing a complete shutout in Atlantic Canada.
15 10 10 Spx
I also find the Conservative numbers 308 and others have posted quite high and they are probably well below the 40% mark which would make this riding quite competitive for the Liberals. I'd still keep it in the TCTC colomn but with only one week left I'll stick my head out and call it for the Liberals.
15 10 10 Jack Cox
Liberals peaking at the right time, expect the momentum to drag Harvey over the finish line here by a hair.
15 10 07 R.O.
Its no doubt this riding is more competitive than years past as long time mp Mike Allen has retired and Richard Bragdon new conservative candidate . which alters the race here but its still a rural riding that has been good to conservatives over the years. and one of the conservatives stronger ridings out east . its likely this riding will be closer than 2011 I don't disagree with that but based on past election results its more likely to stay conservative than go liberal or ndp.
15 10 08 Two Words
I just don't see this riding flipping to the Liberals. I'm sure that the Liberal vote will increase over the last election, perhaps substantially, but it won't be sufficient to flip the seat. I have family in this riding and I've travelled throughout it quite extensively over the past couple of weeks, and I was actually surprised at how few Liberal lawn signs I saw. Even in the Fredericton suburbs that this riding encompasses - an area where you might expect the Liberals to do at least marginally better in comparison to the rest of this largely-rural bible-beltish riding - Bragdon is dominating the lawn sign war. This riding does have more recent Liberal history than its southern NB anglo-rural cousins, NB Southwest and Fundy Royal, but Andy Savoy's victory here in 2000 was a wild up-the-middle fluke, and his hanging on in 2004 was owed more to the sterling reputation he built as a constituency MP in the wake of said fluke than to any sleeping giant of Liberal support just waiting for TJ Harvey to awaken it. The Liberals will improve their standing here, but that only means that the Conservatives will win this seat by something like 10-15 points instead of 40 points.
15 10 08 Craig Hubley
Now actually calling this Liberal and meaning it. I have no idea where threehundredeight gets nutty >40% Con numbers out of current polls that show (at riding level) them barely ahead only in Saint John -- Rothesay, and regional polls in which the Cons are far below even their 2008 levels.
This region had swelling NDP numbers just a few weeks ago. Some of those are Conservative voters who now see the NDP as more like the Red Tories, thanks to things like Mulcair's anti-deficit stance. Where did those go? Back to the Cons? I don't think so. I think they went to the Liberals, and realized that the deficit spending Trudeau wants will be in their own swing riding. Remember, rural Maritime ridings often vote for the pork!
But besides that, the Liberal is a well liked fellow from the north end of the riding who has history in politics, and the Conservative is a pastor from the south end with no such history, a political rookie. So this and the shift of what were NDP and Con votes just a few weeks ago, to the Libs, should hand this over. Should. But as it is not a coastal riding, it could well surprise and be one of maybe one or two remaining Con seats in the Atlantic region. But not on the Atlantic coast. That'll be zero.
15 10 05 GrandFallsVoter
The candidates are all virtually absent from the largest municipality in the riding (Grand Falls according to statistics Canada, neck and neck with Woodstock). The lack of a debate in French in this largely French speaking part of the province is a bit disappointing. The existing telegraph-journal debate on Rogers (which is not being broadcast in the Grand Falls region - just to compound the lack of candidate visibility) is another disappointment as few if any constituency issues were debated (the Mactaquac Dam is provincial......that was an interesting way to start a debate).
Only the Liberals have any visibility here (an actual headquarters on Broadway Blvd) and frankly - with essentially four candidates from below Woodstock (all unilingual english) in the running - the vote in Carleton county will be widely split. May want to make yourselves more visible up north folks.
15 10 04 The Tobiquer
This riding has a loyalty to the local boy and TJ Harvey is very well known in the central and northern part of the riding, which represents 65% of the vote. He has a strong agricultural background, is a hard working family man who volunteers in the community and his cousin is an effective provincial MLA and political organizer. If Trudeau and the Liberals continue to hold the lead nationally then Harvey should sweep every poll in the Grand Falls area, win a big majority in the rest of Victoria County and split Carleton County which is his home. The conservatives will win the south but there won't be enough votes to make up this 2,000 - 3,000 vote deficit. This riding will go liberal in much the same way that it went Liberal in 2004, which was after the merger on the right. The conservative candidate, a former Pentecost minister, also has an uphill battle in the north and with many provincial Progressive Conservatives due to the perception that he wants to revisit social issues like same sex marriage and abortion. If Nanos polls remain 35-31-25 then paint this red on election night.
15 09 30 Craig Hubley
Hello, is anyone actually paying attention to regional polls or split factors? Threehundredeight.com has had this riding as close for months, and despite a recent Con surge elsewhere in Canada there is no sign of recovery in Atlantic Canada anywhere: A Con shutout is predicted in NL, NS and PEI, and the win chance in this riding is at 50% for Cons, the ultimate cliff hanger. The candidate is inexperienced / new so how he will fumble in the toughest last weeks of the campaign is unclear.
The NDP getting a late start clearly favours the Liberals as the NDP vote will be down from last time, and lukewarm progressive supporters will be far more likely to vote Liberal.
The Greens are focusing all their energy on Fredericton and it will get donors, volunteers, and vote swaps from this riding, all of which should favour the Liberals as the only viable progressive campaign.
So given that the competition from NDP and Green is much weaker than in other NB ridings, shouldn't the Liberals benefit from more soft votes ? Nowhere else in NB is it so clear that it is a pure Lib vs. Con race.
So personally I'd put the Liberal chance to win at 55% or so right now, with the vote-for-a-winner factor now favouring Trudeau over Harper. If Harper is indeed locked out of NL, NS and PEI, a lockout in NB would be the surest way to ensure he cannot form even a minority government. The progressive voters of Tobique-Mactaquac are not stupid. They realize this.
They'll be calling their friends and family to vote NDP or Green in other ridings (say NDP in Fundy Royal and Green in Fredericton) while voting Liberal here. No matter what party they really prefer. And that's what formal vote swapping services will be signing up strangers to do as well. If that factor counts at all, Liberal chance to win rises to 60-65%. Not really enough for a prediction usually, but the Cons are bluffing this one with bogus predictions here, so just to counter that, I'll call this now.
15 09 16 CE
Using my corner of this (very large) riding for study, the strength of the Conservative ground game is in full evidence. Signs are up, the candidate has been to every door around here, flyers have been sent out, and potential voters have been called. In fact, my house has been called twice (once for me, and once for my wife). That the party considers it a winnable seat and has resources devoted to it is plainly evident.
Comparatively, the Liberals have a much smaller presence, as do the Greens. While I'm sure the candidates are out working hard, signs of their ground game are far less evident. The NDP got a candidate rather late by comparison to the other parties, and thus far have no signs or other material out in the field that I've found.
The lack of resources from the other parties devoted to the riding, especially compared to neighboring and much more competitive Fredericton, combined with the strong Conservative presence suggests that nobody else particularly sees the riding as winnable. If you look at the history of the riding and how it votes, it seems likely the trend will continue.
15 09 17 F Master Flex
I've traveled through a significant part of the southern end of this riding over the last week (Hartland, Woodstock, Nackawic, Keswick) and Conservative candidate Richard Bragdon has a near-monopoly on lawn signs. I frankly did not see this riding going anything but Conservative, given its status as the strongest Conservative result east of Ontario in 2011. Yes, the retirement of incumbent Mike Allen and the general downward trend for the Conservatives in New Brunswick compared to 2011 will depress the Conservative figure, yet with a starting point of 62%, the Tories are safe here. The sheer dominance of Bragdon lawn signs in the southern half of the riding (admittedly what is likely the most Conservative portion of the riding) only reinforces this prediction.
15 09 14 A.S.
To be viable as a Liberal here, it *really* helps to be Blue Liberal a la Andy Savoy--fat chance of that under Justin--but the presence of Victoria/Grand Falls (and the familiar-nameness about Harvey) doesn't entirely squelch hope for Liberal Red, nor does the open-seatness. And even if NDP was second last time, this time they sorta get in the way. But somehow, in an erstwhile 30% Alliance riding, I *still* can't see this escaping the Cons' cold dead hands--though that depends on how cold and dead said hands'll be by e-day.
15 09 11 R.O.
Current mp Mike Allen is not running for re-election in the riding so the race might be more competitive than past years. Although its still a fairly conservative riding when looking at past numbers . liberals and ndp could both do better here but still fall short . Richard Bragdon is the new conservative candidate and new to federal politics. liberals and ndp also both have new candidates who have not run in the riding before.
15 09 11 A Local Observer
Still waiting for any campaign activity from any of the candidates. Some signs have been knocked down, some propped back up again, but that's about it in Perth-Andover.
People who assume that this riding is pure blue need to remember that Liberal Andy Savoy won here twice, in 2000 and 2004. Sometimes a well-known and well-liked candidate can carry the vote in spite of traditional party leanings. That said, people around here are talking more about the party leaders than about the local candidates.
15 08 29 A Local Observer
Although Liberal candidate TJ Harvey has had huge signs up for a few weeks now, Conservative candidate Richard Bragdon has just this week begun to post signs...but he is certainly attempting to ride on the coat-tails of the popular retiring MP Mike Allen. At a major intersection in Perth-Andover, the gigantic sign shows Mike Allen's smiling face & name, then a narrow connecting sign, 'would like to introduce,' and then the large name, face, & party affiliation of Richard Bragdon. The party seems to be acknowledging how little Bragdon is known around here. Not sure if the mention of Mike Allen will increase Bragdon's appeal or come across as a little desperate.
15 08 14 Atlantic Election Guy
This riding should go Conservative, with 'should' being the key word. Mike Allen was a popular MP (who I have also heard is a possible PC leadership candidate in NB), but the elections in this riding have been close before. Allen and Andy Savoie had many close elections that were decided by a few percentage points. But with Allen leaving and Richard Bragdon, a local pastor, taking the nomination, it will be interesting the same individuals come out to vote for the Conservatives. I also wouldn't discount Harvey in this riding as his brother took part of this riding in the provincial election and the Harvey family is well known in this part of the province, for good and for bad. It may come down to whoever can take the Grand Falls part of the riding. I would say Conservative lean at the moment, but don't discount this from becoming TCTC as we get closer to the election.
15 05 30 Craig Hubley
Changing my prediction after the departure of Peter MacKay. While NB is far less directly affected, the invigorated Liberal focus on Maritime seats will certainly be felt here. The departure of MacKay is being understood and interpreted by most ordinary people as meaning that the old PC Party no longer exists, no longer has any role or status in the Conservative Party, and that the thing to do if you ever want to moderate the Cons, or see a provincial PC government again, is sit on your hands for Harper.
The scent of blood is in the air and the campaign here will be much fiercer than expected. We may be seeing a massive change in Maritime politics with the old PCs shifting their loyalties from Harper/MacKay to Trudeau Liberals.
This riding will be affected far LESS than most, but by that I mean we won't see the Liberal landslide that I now expect in former Conservative seats in Nova Scotia, or those formerly held by advocates of fracking etc.
Seems there are two brands of blue, and one has been clearly marked poison, and the other is indistinguishable federally from Trudeau's soft Harperism.
15 04 26 Docere
Rural New Brunswick is a lot more right-wing than rural Nova Scotia. My hypothesis is 1) higher proportion of Baptists, 2) linguistic polarization drives anglos rightward, and 3) New Brunswick has more 'purely' rural ridings with less industry while Nova Scotia ridings are more mixed and have more industrial employment.
And Tobique-Mactaquac is the most conservative riding in Atlantic Canada by far - the Canadian Alliance got 30% here.
15 04 14 Dr. Bear
If we start seeing the Liberals edging into majority territory, then I'd say this will be competitive. Until the Liberals start sporting those number, this will stay safely in the Conservative column.
15 04 15 Stevo
Tobique-Mactaquc was, by some margin, the strongest Atlantic riding for Reform and Alliance. The Liberals somehow managed to hang on in 2004 post-PC/Alliance merger, but since then the Conservative margins have exploded and it's now more reminiscent of Leeds-Grenville than anything approaching swing status.
15 03 28 monkey
The Canadian Alliance came within 1,500 votes of winning this back in 2000 so despite the poor Tory numbers in Atlantic Canada, they are doing a lot better than the Canadian Alliance was so they should hold this. This is a strongly socially conservative area and I cannot see Justin Trudeau's social liberal views going over well here. The Liberals may win Victoria county due to its large Francophone population, but Carleton County which has more people will stay solidly Tory.
15 03 18 Craig Hubley
Like the Saint John / southwest area, whatever poison, as long as it's blue.

Navigate to Canada 2015 Home | Provincial Index | Submission

Canada Federal Election - 2015
Election Prediction Project/Projet D'Élection Prévision - www.electionprediction.com
© Justice Quest Communications, 1999-2015 - Email Webmaster