Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2011


Prediction Changed
2011-10-06 22:31:47

Constituency Profile


Cridland, Donna

Forster, Cindy

Hamilton, Donna-Lynne

Mercier, Benoit

Ursini, Domenic

Peter Kormos


  • Federal Riding Prediction
  • Previous Prediction - 2007 Provincial Election

    2007 Result:


    2003 Result (redistributed):



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    11 10 04 Steve
    I live in the southern part of the riding. Down here, this looks like a very tight race between Forster for the NDP and Ursini for the PCs. The Liberals are nowhere to be found; hardly any signs; a bit of literature recently. Maybe a bit of an edge to Forster based on the long NDP history in this riding, but I think Ursini has actually run the better campaign, and I think the PCs will put on a big push. They need all the seats they can get, and the local PCs really want to win after coming painfully close in the last two federal elections here.
    11 10 03 The Jackal
    I'll call this one for the NDP for these reasons:
    1. As mentioned earlier this was a Mel Swart/Peter Kormos fiefdom for over quarter a century.
    2. This seat is currently a federal NDP seat which they won in 2008 and held against the blue wave that hit Ontario in the last federal election.
    3. The Ontario NDP is polling at higher numbers than 1999 and 2003.
    In short while it will be a closer race the NDP will win by 2000-3000.
    11 10 02 Catweazle
    This will be a close race between the PC's and NDP- no question. While I could not stand the Kormos histrionics and do nothing stance on most issues, I certainly respect his political canniness. Cindy is no Peter Kormos and people are starting to wake up.
    11 10 01 Steve V.
    Tim Hudak is making two stops in Welland today -- both Welland and Port Colborne. This still isn't the easy NDP hold some are predicting. It'll go down to the wire, just like in the federal election.
    11 09 24 A.S.
    I'm supposing it's a regional-bandwagon effect that the Tories are staking most of their claims on--after all, the southernmost part actually *belonged* to Tim Hudak prior to 2007--but in fact, Welland wouldn't a terribly ‘right-leaning’ seat even if it weren't so beholden to a larger-than-life Swart/Kormos-figure: too blue-collar, too Franco-Ontarian, etc; the Cons' recent federal near-victory actually represented a lightheaded plateau for this kind of seat. But on top of that--Kormos may be gone; but he bequeathed an electoral machine that's even stronger and more comprehensive than that which brought him to power. (The proof being federally--remember that back in Swart/early Kormos days, the NDP was but an above-average federal also-ran. ‘Gibby Parent Liberals’ took a lot of that left/labour vote, instead.) Thus, the path of succession that leads to Cindy Forster appears quite smoothed-out, indeed. (‘Appears’. Which is why I'm withholding a prediction; though maybe I shouldn't.)
    11 09 21 AD
    Not sure why this one is so heavily discussed, or why anyone could look at this riding and see a PC win. This looks like a very safe NDP seat. With a higher vote share in every recent poll from the federal election, this one is should be an easy NDP win.
    11 09 21 Matt Silk
    One thing to note about this riding is that it has been NDP for 36 years going back to Mel Stewart's win in 1975. It's not just a Kormos riding.
    11 09 19 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
    Kormos may be gone but the NDP will keep this seat. Current polls put them at about 28%, when they garnished only 17% in '07. Not likely that they'd lose what they already have.
    11 09 16 Paulie Sigh
    Why is this not called for the NDP? Because everyone knows this was a ‘Peter Kormos’ riding....not necessarily an NDP riding. Look for a PC win on Election Day.
    11 09 15 Double J
    Peter Kormos has campaigned hard for Cindy Forster and the NDP are the only party with a real election organization in Welland. Add to that the surge in NDP support province-wide and Welland remains an NDP riding even with Kormos leaving the stage.
    11 09 15 Dan
    Cindy Forster should win as she has the endorsement of Peter Kormos, and she is well known in Welland. However, the campaign going on for Domenic Ursini (PC Party) is going well, and I believe that the final results will be close. Similar to the recent federal election results in the Welland riding, my prediction is that the NDP will win, PC Party will come in a close second, and Liberals will come in a distant third.
    11 09 13 jeff316
    Succession planning isn't the NDP's strength and unlike up in Nickel Belt, where Shelley Martel eased her retirement, Kormos took too long to stand aside. It is clear that he was waiting for the federal result to see if the riding was secure enough for him to leave without resulting in an NDP loss provincially. But it didn't leave enough time for the next NDP candidate to plan ahead and make a running start. This will be close, with the Conservatives likely taking the seat.
    11 09 10 matvail2002
    Could go three way. As mentioned a few times, Swart and Kormos were having high personal votes even when their party was not doing well at all.
    This is however a big urban/rural split in this riding between Welland/Thorold/Port Colborne and the rest.
    11 09 09 MF
    Even with the formidable Kormos leaving, I still think the NDP should keep the seat.  It’s true federal MP Malcolm Allen only won by a razor-thin margin against the Conservatives, but the Hudak campaign seems to be losing momentum and are unlikely to do as well as their federal counterparts.
    11 09 04 Steve V.
    I agree with the posters who say this one is between the PCs and the NDP. The NDP candidate may be a former mayor, but the PC candidate has been in place and campaigning for months. He's got the edge here.
    11 08 29 MHB
    While I think the NDP will easily hold this one, there is no reason to insult the Liberal candidate. Word's like ?Union Boss? are words that belong inside a Tory filthy latrine not here on EPP. Benoit Mercier is the democratically elected President of the Ontario French Teachers. Thus he is a Union Leader and a Teacher.
    11 08 28 Leo
    Wow, struck a nerve with my last comment I guess.
    This was a Mel Swart/Peter Kormos riding, neither of which were elected because of their party (and on a couple of occasions, elected despite their party).
    Malcolm Allen & the Conservative candidate got 42% & 40% of the vote in the last election. In what looks to be high-water marks for both parties, as the most recent polls show the PC's have blown their lead & are now even with the Liberals, and the NDP well back of the numbers they had in May.
    Welland will come down to a fight between the NDP & Liberals, with the PC's being back in 3rd place. With the Liberal numbers continuing to climb province-wide, look for this to be a surprising pick-up for the Liberals on election night.
    11 08 23 Paulie Sigh
    To Leo - wake up and smell the Liberal demise. The past 2 federal campaigns proved the Liberal Party in Welland is non-existant. Then Liberal MP John Maloney - the incumbent for 13 years - went down embarrassingly to Malcolm Allen in 2008 and 2011. Not only did he lose, he lost bad - finishing in 3rd, behind the Conservatives both times. Its clear the you dont want to face the facts - but this is a NDP/PC race. Go tell Benoit Mercier that he can go back to Ottawa. Just like Michael Ignatieff, he isn't in it for us - he is in this race for himself. The fact long time Welland Liberal John Mastroianni got dumped for a union boss like Mercier shows just how out of touch Dalton McGuinty is with local Liberals.
    11 08 20 MHB
    Leo you can't be serious, the Libs won't even get their deposit back here. This has been an NDP seat for 36 years. Swart and Kormos both came from municipal politics, so does the new NDP candidate (former Mayor of Welland in fact). My prediction here NDP just under 50%, PC's 35%, Libs 9 to 13%.
    11 08 15 Leo
    With Kormos retiring this seat becomes a toss-up.
    This will be a race between the Liberals & the NDP. It will be close but with the Liberal poll numbers rising & the NDP stuck at 16-18% province-wide, they could pull it off. This is a riding that likely would have gone Liberal in '03 & '07 if not for the following that Kormos had in Welland.
    The Conservatives would have to have a provincial campaign that did better than the national campaign, and with the Conservative polling numbers going down, that isn't likely & they're likely to be a non-factor here.
    11 08 15 Louise Smeltzer
    Cindy Forster has broken her promise to those people in Welland who voted for her to sit as a regional councillor. Her platform stated she was running for Niagara Regional Council in 2010 because:
    1 - she ‘cared enough’ to ‘do the job I was elected to do’ and
    2 - she ‘cared enough’ to ‘finish the job I started’ at the Region.
    Everyone can see her platform online at: http://icareenough.net/sitemap
    Well, after just 9 months on Regional council, she wants to seek higher
    office. This doesn’t seem like someone who ‘cares enough’ to ‘do the job she was elected to do’….or to ‘finish the job she started’ (it’s a 4 year term at Council, not 9 months)
    It seems to me she just ‘cares enough’ to seize the opportunity for higher office and a bigger salary.
    And while Cindy is campaigning for the NDP, will she give back her salary from the Region? We aren’t paying her to campaign full time for a political party.
    11 08 14 Canadian Election Atlas
    The Tories could very easily pick up this seat now that it has been vacated. Having said that, I still think the NDP will win at this point. This is becoming an ‘NDP seat’, as it is now a federal NDP seat as well. It's a very polarized riding however, so it will be a close race. Right now, the Tories are polling well below their federal counterparts, while the NDP is only polling slightly less then they got in the federal election. That's why I think the NDP will keep this- for now.
    11 08 02 Greenhorn
    This will be a very tight race without Kormos. If the current 10+ point PC lead holds, I would expect this riding to follow. Ursini is working very hard while the NDP has yet to get off the ground. A narrow Tory win.
    11 07 31 R.O.
    I expect this riding to be more competitive than previous years and for some party leaders to actually visit the riding now that Kormos retired but it seems unlikely the ndp lose seats this year especially a core riding like Welland. if either liberals or pc's had a star candidate things might get a bit more interesting but it appears to be an ndp hold unless something else happens here.
    11 07 13 LondonMike
    This has been an NDP seat for more than 30 years. Without Kormos, it may be a tighter race, but the NDP will hold it. The riding association is very strong and organized as well, and they hold the seat federally. Only a disastrous central campaign could put this seat in jeopardy.
    11 06 19 Steve V.
    Welland gets a lot more interesting without Peter Kormos. I think there's a good chance it will go the way of its federal counterpart: a very close PC-NDP contest, with the Liberals slipping back. It will be one to watch.
    11 06 13 Jimmy O
    I have to say, after decades of this being no contest with Peter Kormos walking away with it for victory i think this riding is finally back in play.
    With the latest polls showing Tim Hudaks PCs leading province wide i think they are the main contenders to take this riding away from NDP. Clearly this riding is not an easy victory for anyone. It will depend heavily on whose ground game is better.
    11 06 10
    After the Federal NDP victory in this riding and with Peter Kormos now retiring the timing for his replacement is good for holding this seat.
    11 03 04 MF
    Peter Kormos is one of the most formidable politicians around. His working class populist ‘old Labour’ approach resonates in Welland - undercutting any sort of populist challenge from the right. I'm sure a lot of people who were voted Reform/Alliance in the 90s were voting for Kormos provincially.
    11 02 28 binriso
    Probably the safest NDP seat in the province and with the Liberals 30 pts back and the PCs 35 I dont see any way they’ll win this time. The PCs may make a bit of a push and I think they’ll be definitely in second but far back of Kormos and the NDP.

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