10 02 13	R.O. 24.146.23.226
Well its not like there wasn't reasons to put this one in the too close to call category but it should be noted that well the conservatives are down a bit in some polls and liberals doing better in ontario according to some . even in the latest ekos polls that showed the liberals doing well here in ontario , in Ottawa specifically they have the conservatives at 41 % and liberals at 38% and when considering the cpc be doing worse in the 3 ridings they don't hold here . i don't know but i'd say John Baird still has the advantage here if those numbers are accurate. there is also going to be a provincial by-election in this riding very soon and it may stay with the provincial liberals as there running former mayor Bob Chiarelli although the ontario pc's are running Beth Graham a community activist so it may turn out to be close in the end. but either way its not usually represented by the same parties at provincial and federal levels so i wouldn't make many conclusions based on this by-election and the future federal vote.
	10 02 11	Marco Ricci 72.138.2.68
I agree with the comments of Bear and Ape. It's interesting that in the last 2 elections the vote spread between the Conservatives and the Liberals has remained the same in this riding - about 5,000 votes: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canadavotes/riding/173/06results.html It is also true that it is impressive that David Pratt was able to increase the Liberal vote in this riding by 2 points (from 34% to 36%) in an election in which the Liberal vote collapsed in Ontario. Baird was able to move up by 2 points as well (from 43% to 45%), but it could be argued that Baird should have won by more. At this moment, I would give a small advantage to Baird, but if polls remain close in Ontario as they are now, Baird will have to be careful. Pratt will need to pull several thousand votes away from the Conservatives and the NDP in this riding, but he has a shot at it.
	10 01 31	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 174.89.193.27
If we were pressured into making a decision now we'd say CPC keep, but there is no compelling reason to make a decision when there isn't even an imminent election. One needs to take a good hard look at how close this riding has been in the last two elections. No movement in the numbers between '06 and '08. However there was a sizable shift in Liberal votes overall in Ontario. What was different between '06 & '08 was the Liberal candidate. They ran a newbie in '06 (who did well, just not well enough) and then a political veteran in '08 (who did well when his party tanked in Ontario). Now David Pratt is running again and the CPC is in a virtual tie with the Liberals. This means that, for the moment, we have an interesting race. Advantage Conservatives but it is not for sure unless the CPC start picking up again.
	09 09 26	A.S. 99.232.162.133
Re ‘Ottawa West is a more blue collar type of riding than an intellectual one’: actually, it's tended to be very middle class a la Etobicoke, and for it not to go Harris Blue in '95 was merely a product of urbanity and candidacy and local circumstance--besides, that's the former *provincial* riding of Ottawa West; the present federal seat (which includes Baird's first provincial constituency) *would* have gone Harris in '95. And please, folks, don't make too much of Baird ‘crushing’ Pratt in '08; given '08's Dion vs Harper campaign dynamics, that should have been all but a given despite whatever Pratt-camp bluster--in fact, I'm inclined to agree with the notion of Pratt actually doing quite surprisingly well, under the circumstances, and that was a curious, maybe portentous Ottawa-area phenomenon (also reflected in the bolstered Grit shares in OSouth and OVanier, and Marc Godbout holding his own a la Pratt in OOrleans). I'd argue that John Baird has every reason to look over his shoulder after the last result, because it went against the grain of conventional wisdom--all the more so as it's an urban seat, as urban as class of '06 Ontario CPC seats get. If Iggy gets traction, this is the perfect kind of target seat, and Baird's the perfect kind of target candidate, and Pratt's the perfect kind of Iggy-hawk to target said candidate. Now, *whether* there is or will be that kind of Iggy traction is another matter--but still, not so fast with automatically branding it a Tory slam-dunk...
	09 09 24	R.O. 209.91.149.62
Its a rematch as has been mentioned previously. not really sure much has changed here since last year or any reason as to why John Baird does not still have the advantage here over David Pratt . the race here seems largely the same as before , we have a high profile cabinet minister running in a riding that has a history of being competitive. the conservative party minus a short period after the liberal leadership race is considerably ahead of the liberals in the polls. the liberals have a high profile candidate in a riding they once held but lost votes in since the years when they did alot better. there is simply little reason to assume much is going to change here at the moment. the ndp are even running the same candidate as before from what i've read.
	09 09 17	Eastern Ontario Values 209.202.107.203
A re-match of last year's election, with David Pratt taking on John Baird again. Pratt tried an anti-Baird message last time, but it never really got traction, and he lost by the same 5,000 vote margin as the previous Liberal candidate. Looking at Pratt's website, he's still on an anti-Baird, anti-Poilievre bent, and judging from his back-to-back defeats (and by a bigger margin in the more Liberal-friendly Ottawa West riding in 2008) his sour grapes isn't a winning approach. The ?getting things done? message works better for Baird this time around, judging from all the infrastructure projects coming to the west end...so much so, that Liberal critic Gerard Kennedy complained in Parliament that too much was going to Ottawa, and they should get less! That position will help the Liberals in Toronto, but undermine Pratt locally. On the Nortel issue, so many people (including employees) had their retirements destroyed by present management - the though of giving the same group billions of dollars (especially with their dodgy accounting practices) was not supported by anyone but Iggy. The pensioner issue is important, but I daresay that both Pratt and Baird (who's been very involved with the issue) both feel the same way about it, and after all, it's the local Liberal Premier, Dalton McGuinty, who's ruled out stepping in for the pensioners (the Nortel pensions fall under provincial laws). Overall, Pratt's argument is weaker than last time, and being a two-time loser can't help. Iggy should go over better than Dion, but Ottawa West is a more blue collar type of riding than an intellectual one (note that it didn't go for Harris in '95, and only went for Gary Guzzo in '99 with the benefit of a vote split). It would take an Iggy majority to put Pratt over the top, but that doesn't seem to be in the cards...
	09 09 15	jbrill 198.103.53.5
Pratt needs only to point to John's current record of ?getting it done for Ottawa?: 1) Sold 2 prime federal office complexes only to lease them back for 25 years (good deal if you can get it as the new owner!) 2) failed to intervene wrt Nortel where many of his constituents work(ed) 3) intervened wrt to lrt costing his constituents $37M 4) as Environment Minister was a laughing stock to the international community 5) as Transport Minister, sitting on a $10M scandal and 6) nobody believes for 1 minute he didn't scheme with Larry O wrt to Kilrea. The hiring of Larry O's new communication advisor shows the close link to the CPC's.
	09 08 26	DL 173.32.33.208
I think Baird will lose. He didn't win by all that much last time and the Tories are likely to lose ground in Ontario compared to the last election. Also, a ton of public service employees live in this riding and for a federal civil servant to vote Tory is like a chicken voting for Col. Sanders.
	09 08 25	wyatt 24.235.142.160
Baird's profile is too strong here. A 5,000 vote lead from '08 won't make it a runaway, but he'll hold it. Look for around 45% again from Baird.
	09 08 25	hatman 99.240.223.75
This will probably go Conservative the way things are now, but the riding is a bellwether, and will vote for the party that forms government I believe. Provincially, it is held by Jim Watson, a Liberal, and in 2004 the Liberals won here with a minority.
	09 08 24	Sean P.F. 198.103.172.9
So, Pratt did better then Lee Farnsworth did in 2006? Lets let the voters tell us: Lib 2006 (Farnsworth): 20,244 Lib 2008 (Pratt): 20,161 Pratt garner the Liberal Party a huge gain of... -87 votes. The only reason Pratt got 2% higher then Farnsworth did is because the NDP vote collapsed by 33% (9569 to 6432). Baird's vote stayed near the same (he lost only 498 Votes from 2006 to 2008). The Conservatives almost won this riding in 2004 running a nobody against the popular Liberal incumbant, Marlene Catterall. This riding leans Conservative due to its demographics, as OWN is the 2nd oldest riding in the country, behind Victoria. Seniors vote in blocks for whom they like. They like John Baird. Pratt can't win this riding. Baird will win again with similar numbers.
	09 08 23	B.O. 99.247.46.156
No Sean P.F., Baird did not crush David Pratt in the last election. Baird beat Pratt by a fairly narrow margin. He won by 8.86%. Pratt had 36% of the vote. This was actually higher than the 34% 2006 Liberal candidate Lee Farnworth got. Pratt actually got a higher percentage of the vote under Dion's leadership than Farnworth got under Martin's leadership. And Pratt's increased percentage over Farnworth is even with the Liberals losing the popular vote in Ontario by 6 percentage points whereas when Farnworth ran the Liberals won the province by 5 points. Most Tory incumbents in Ontario first elected in 2006 expanded their margins by huge amounts in 2008. Baird was one of few Ontario Tory incumbents to see their margins shrink in 2008. Baird can't be all that popular if he hardly increased his vote percentage at all from 2006. Ottawa West-Nepean is quite a winnable riding for the Liberals and under the right circumstances the Liberals can win it. For now the riding is too close to call.
	09 08 21	Sean P.F. 99.246.13.208
John Baird is visible and popular in his riding. He crushed David Pratt last time, and will do it again this election.