Election Prediction Project
British Columbia Provincial Election 2009


Prediction Changed
9:57 PM 10/05/2009

Constituency Profile

Austin, Robin
Brousseau, Mike
Green Party
Norman, Anita
van Dyk, Donny

(Approx. 90% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

COONS, Gary Earl
North Coast
(Approx. 10% of polls)
Previous Prediction: 2005 / 2001

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09 05 10 Karen
For many months, in anticipation of this election, one city councilor has been trying to convince the citizens of Terrace that NDP MLA Robin Austin has not been 'available'. Her attempts at orchestrating a negative image of the elected MLA have failed with the majority of the population because it was brought to light that city council preferred the paid assistance of past defeated incumbent Roger Harris.
Liberal candidate, Donny Van Dyk, probably has a bright future ahead of him but his youth and immaturity are evident in the way he has handled his campaign to date.
09 05 10 Jeff
It would appear that Donny van Dyk has gained momentum throughout the campaign. His young age may play a negative part, but on the whole it would seem his energy and youthfulness have been well received.
He has performed well in recent public debates and has received fairly positive press throughout the campaign, where the number of DVD supporters have at the least matched those for Robin Austin. The facts remain RA has had a rough relationship with Terrace council and other community stakeholders and he has not delivered much (albeit in opposition) for the riding over the past four years.
I suspect we'll see Skeena become a Liberal gain.
09 05 07 Tom Mascotti
Robin Austin has the incumbent status and DVD is still a minor figure. Also, RA has been very present in the community and has represented the concerns of the Alcan employees in the legislature, while DVD has been silent on the issue and has heard his fair share of disappointment on the doorstep in Gordon Campbell's neglect of this issue. There is only high praise for Robin Austin, who ousted the reckless Liberal MLA Roger Harris, who by the way is advising DVD's campaign. The Terrace City Mayor and Council are BC Liberal donors and members, and have attempted to discredit and smear Robin Austin, which many in the community have felt insulted by, and will vote for Robin Austin in this election. Also, by the looks of it Austin is winning the sign war.
09 05 05 J.M.
Since the election writ was officially dropped on Tuesday 14th April 2009, Robin Austin, the NDP candidate for Skeena, has been door knocking in the Nass Valley, Kitimat,Terrace, Thornhill, and all the surrounding areas of the riding and has met with very favorable responses; he has run a very vigourous campaign and has left nothing to chance. The issues and the demographics favour his re-election. I submit that Skeena will be in the NDP column on Tuesday 2nd May 2009.
09 04 22 J.M.
There have been nine BC provincial election cycles in the Skeena Provincial Riding starting with the 1972 Provincial Elections and the NDP has been victorious in six of them; three times in the last four provincial election cycles. In the most recent October 14, 2008 Federal Elections, the NDP in this area [Skeena-Bulkley Valley] was victorious, continuing to maintain and increase their support. Skeena-Bulkley Valley is one of two ridings out of the nine located in the North and Interior of B.C. that went NDP. Here are the results of the October 14, 2008 Election as it pertains to the Nass Valley, Terrace, Thornhill and Kitimat: Green Party [3.041%], NDP [50.368%], Canadian Action Party [0.265%], Liberal Party [5.985%], Conservative Party [37.627%], Christian Heritage Party [2.387%], Rejected Ballots [0.327%]. I submit that the Provincial Riding of Skeena will be won by the NDP.
09 04 18 Westerner
Just because Terrace does not account for the entirety of the Skeena riding does not mean that it is not an important part of it, Stacey. In fact, Terrace is the largest single community in the riding, so the perception of the incumbent in Terrace is EXTREMELY important. And while the current MLA is unpopular in the largest city in the district, Donny has positive name recognition.
The NDP won the old riding by a mere 4.5% in 2005 when the BC Liberals won the province by 4.5%. The most recent Angus, Ipsos and Mustel polls put the Liberals ahead by 6, then 11, then 17 points (the third is the only poll from April). Since the most recent poll mentioned, the NDP campaign has sputtered, losing the support of several environmental groups.
Although I can't see the Liberals winning the election by 17 points, they have the lead and the momentum in the campaign, and I don't think British Columbians are comfortable with the NDP in power during tough economic times. In this political and economic climate, with a weak incumbent and a young upstart challenger, Skeena is likely to be one of the seats that flips to the Liberals as they increase their majority.
09 04 13 Stacey
I think it's important to understand that TERRACE is NOT the Skeena region. Just because Terrace City Council etc... has accused MLA Robin Austin of being absent because they chose to deal with the previous MLA doesn't make him truly absent, nor does it reflect the feelings of the riding of Skeena.
I think it's important that if we are going to guess or predict winners, that we at least be accurate about the information we are sharing. Kitimat hasn't complained about Robin being absent, because they ask him for help and he gives it.
I think this riding will stay NDP and I think you will see a much larger % this time around.
09 03 08 Evan Farkvam
I agree that the Skeena riding will be a very tight race. The riding, based on federal numbers, should lean New Democrat, but as previously posted the local NDP MLA, Robin Austin, has been under significant criticism from the local school board, councils, and even visiting Ministers.
The BC Liberal candidate, Donny van Dyk, is young which is either an opportunity or weakness depending on how it plays in the local media. However his advantage maybe that he is born and raised in the riding and has a family that is very well respected. I expect we won?t know who won the riding until late on election night, but it wouldn?t surprise me if van Dyk pulls off an upset win.
09 02 25 Jeff
Skeena will no doubt be a tight race in 2009, but in a riding that has flip flopped throughout the decades, it would appear the region is ready for a change once again. Incumbent Robin Austin won by a very slim margin in 2005 and he has consistently been at loggerheads with school boards and city councils.
He's been criticized as being invisible and has been seen as absent over the past four years.
BC Liberal candidate Donny van Dyk has a lot of energy and has already met with several community groups and has garnered a fair amount of positive press.
Expect the Liberals to take back the riding in 2009.
09 02 15 Derrick
The Premier has missed the boat on this riding. By adding in the Nass (90+% NDP) he has made it very hard for Donny (BCL)to win. With the continued depression in the NW, anyone who wanted to work in the private sector left town. Who stayed, unionist, teachers and other society leeches who live on the taxpayers dollar. How will they vote, left of course.
09 02 10 TAN
Simply on the basis of the close finish last time, this seat has to be seen as in play for a Liberal pickup. That said, redistribution has added the Nass Valley, and one can't help but wonder if the Nisga'a will forget the BC Liberals' long and gory campaign to stop their Land Claims Agreement anytime soon. Robin Austin has been a moderately high-profile member of the NDP caucus and his opponent will be Donny van Dyk, vice-president of the BC Liberal youth wing. I give Austin the edge for now, but if the large gap in provincial polling holds up, that could well change.

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