Prediction Changed
12:32 PM 02/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Timmins—James Bay
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Progressive Conservative

Timmins-James Bay (100%)
Gilles Bisson

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 09 N~Jam101
There really is no surprise that Gilles Bisson will win yet again after being MPP in my home electoral district for 17 years. The Liberal, Pat Boucher has been an excellent candidate and gets my support. I'm sure Boucher will do quite well in many of the Highway 11 towns, specifically Kapuskasing and Hearst and in between. He is not Mike Doody (2003 Liberal candidate) which may not help him in Timmins but he'll get a good amount of support. What will be interesting is to see if Mr. Bisson improves his 2003 outcome where he didn't get over 50% of the votes.
What really strikes me as strange are the people claiming that people here vote more for the candidate than the party. I disagree. This is a traditional NDP riding...well the southern part of it (formerly Cochrane South) Add up the years of which party has held this area and you will see. Bisson is liked by many but not everyone. I hate to say this but this riding is his until he retires. This is likely the same with federal MP Charlie Angus.
My prediction: Bisson 50%, Boucher 37%, Kidd 8%, Green Party candidate 5%
Remember there are more francophones than anglophones here and a large first nations population. Not conservative country! In Timmins James-Bay it is ALWAYS Liberal or NDP, nobody else has come close in recent times.
07 10 03 billy
Bisson has won the respected barber shop poll by 12 points and the ctv/oracle poll by 33 points. Bisson still has enormous support outside timmins. Boucher may be from kap but he must answer to his party's failed forestry policies and the resulting thousands of job lay-offs. people haven't forgotten in opasatika, hearst, smooth rock falls etc.
07 09 23 Julie M
I believe Bisson's days are numbered. The Liberal candidate is from Kapuskasing, and has tremendous support outside of Timmins. The nearly half of the constituents from the northern part of the riding are tired of being ignored, and will likely come out in great numbers to support Boucher. It was this Northern part of the riding that was Bisson's stronghold in the 2003, but he will get significantly less support this time.
07 09 12 nesooite
Timmins James Bay has become the safest NDP seat in Northern Ontario, if not the province as a whole. Used to be SSM or Nickel Belt, but Timmins has definitely shifted left in the last decade. Bisson is almost impossible to beat (francophone in a strong French speaking riding, good union support in mining/logging country and popular incumbent). May be the biggest NDP win in the province.
07 09 09 A.S.
It came as a bit of a shock that the Liberals cracked 40% and robbed Gilles Bisson of a majority in '03 (he had the NDP's sole majority in '99)--then again, that was before Charlie Angus arrived on the federal scene. As for the present, how can Steve Kidd have second place 'wrapped up' when there's been a running pattern of TJB being Ontario's worst Tory riding? Well, why not. After all, Bisson's predecessor at Queen's Park was PC maverick/leadership candidate/proto-Harris populist Alan Pope (who even won in the disaster of '87). But now, by splitting the opposition, the only thing Kidd wraps up is another Bisson victory--broader, one presumes, than last time.
07 09 08 P Belisle
The north has taken a kick to the teeth under the Liberal government. While partisans may call for a Liberal-NDP race, in reality all the stars align once again for Gilles Bisson. He'll win again, as he did last time when the Liberals were on the upswing and the Tories were heading for defeat. In addition to being a solid constituency MPP and a voice for the north, Gilles will be helped by tanking Liberals and slightly upward Conservative votes.
07 09 05 billy
i want to remind people that timmins james bay has voted on the side of government, yes even with the ndp. gilles bisson was part of ndp government. but who knows who's going to win so how can anyone stand there and say you have to be on government side. that would be a dictatorship with only 1 party. timmins james bay had liberals federally on government side who did nothing and got nothing. also david ramsay is on government side and his riding has lost thousands of jobs.
07 09 06 Ren
This one should be one of the ridings in the Too close to call list. Pat Boucher is the Liberal candidate and he's been working all summer solidifying Liberal support in the northern part of the riding which in the past has been a Liberal stronghold. I think Gilles has one hell of a fight on his hands. This is Gille's election to lose and if he does, that will probably dash any hopes of him becoming leader when Howard retires after another election of no gains for the NDP provincially.
07 06 29 free_thinker
I'm ready to say that this will be an interesting race this time. The Liberal candidate ended up being some noname from Kapuskasing and of course Gilles Bisson has announced his intention of running once more. The PC party, with very little organization here in T-JB has been generating a lot of press with a rumoured candidate, Steve Kidd. Steve is the former president of the Chamber of Commerce and current president of the Northeastern Ontario Chambers of Commerce. He has solid backing in the Timmins (and northern) business community which usually backs the Liberals. He also seems to be digging up significant strength in common NDP areas as Smooth Rock Falls. With some impressive connections on the coast he seems to be pressing into that area as well.
The interesting story here is what Mr. Kidd can do for the PC brand in this riding. Make no mistake, Gilles Bisson is next to impossible to beat and quite honestly it would be hard for anyone to win this election against him, he would have to loose it. It is with that said that I?m willing to predict this is going to be an interesting race. It depends largely how much support mr. Kidd can find in the NDP colonies. Kidd, if he declares, pretty much has second place wrapped up.....but what will it take for him to get to first place?
07 05 09 free_thinker
This riding is a solid NDP riding. As the previous author said, the likely Liberal nominee will be Gary Scripnick, a recent and long-time card carrying Progressive Conservative. This switch shows the man’s opportunism in black and white. While I don’t think that will be come a major issue, the fact remains that the NDP has a very very strong organization here that will only continue to deliver. The tories, well they exist but if their 2003 candidate, Merv Russel (who was an excellent candidate), could not win then I do not think there is much of a chance. Firm NDP hold - 3000 vote margin.
07 03 25
A local councillor, Gary Scripnick is the Liberal candidate but used to be a card carrying Conservative. Knowing the PC's in this riding, there are none and therefore no challenge from them. in keeping with this ridings tradition of being on the wrong side of everything, they will continue to elect the NDP. Whoever the NDP candidate is will becoming the Member for Timmins-James Bay.

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