Prediction Changed
12:13 AM 08/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Family Coalition
Progressive Conservative
New Democratic

Stormont-Dundas-Charlottenburgh (95.5%)
Jim Brownell
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell (4.5%)
Jean-Marc Lalonde

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 09 binriso
I have to agree here with the Liberals winning. Too big of a margin for the PCs to overcome.
07 10 09 Joe
The 2007 campaign has not been about PC pickups. If anything, we'll be seeing the Liberals add to their majority. It looks as if the only seats the Tories will be picking up are the new districts. Liberals will hold this one again.
07 10 08 Tyrone
Your accuracy rating is going to be going down with your current prediction for SDSG. Jim Brownell is going to be winning on Wednesday - maybe not by 5600 votes, like in `03, but by at least 3000 votes. Contrast, for example, the turnouts for rallies with the leaders: Tory attracted 60 people at a downtown restaurant, while McGuinty attracted almost 300 people for an outdoor bbq on a rainy day. Furthermore, Savard failed to stack the all-candidates`debate in Cornwall last week despite buying newspaper adds encouraging people to turn up and see `real leadership` at the debate (perhaps it`s lucky for him that they didn`t come - Savard flopped, and had the gaffe of the night when he slipped up and said that he was in support of Health Care where people `pay with their Credit Card - no, I mean their OHIP card, not their Credit Card` to laughter and jeers.
07 10 07
There is no question that this riding will stay Liberal, and there are a number of reasons for this.
Conservative Candidate Chris Savard made a grave mistake when he hitched his electoral wagon to John Tory, a man with decreasing popularity locally. Savard's backing of the Faith Based School funding scheme has also hurt him - when Tory backed away, he left every candidate who followed the party line high and dry. Add to this a lack-luster communications strategy and Savard's growing discomfort in debates and a few unfortunate gaffes, most famously being him saying at a debate that, under a PC government, ‘You'll be able to pay for health services with your credit card,’ and the public impression heard on the street is that he's not up to the task.
Also worth noting - in the middle of the campaign John Tory held a rally at a restaurant in downtown Cornwall, the urban centre of the riding; despite the location, good weather and plenty of notice, only 30 people showed up, though food had been ordered for 300. Jim Brownell recently held a barbeque at his house in the Counties, and McGuinty decided to attend at the last minute. Despite this, and inclimate weather, more than 300 people were in attendance.
07 10 08 Ryan
Well, I see this one has been called for PC, but I am still hesitant. If you look at all the other predictions, this would be the only PC pick up. Had Tory's campaign not gotten sidelined by the faith based schools issue, I wouldn't be surprised to see Savard pick it up. However, with the momentum with the Liberals, I wonder if this is going to boil down to a question of whether or not voters want a gov't MPP or an opposition MPP? Tight race either way. Gut still says Liberal, but as I said in previous posts, no shock if PCs take it. Tight race either way, will be very interesting on Wednesday.
07 10 08 Nick J Boragina
I’m not sure if it’s the last federal election that’s holding this riding back from being called for the Liberals. If so, I feel that’s the wrong action to take. For one, the federal Tories took 40 seats in Ontario, where as current poll projections are showing the PC Party taking around 30-35. If true, then those marginal ridings for the feds, like this one, wont translate well. Even then, its worthy to note differences in rural southwestern Ontario and the GTA when it comes to Federal Vs. Provincial results. This riding might be near many other right-wing PC ridings, but this riding itself does have a hint of French, and that matters. If that does not convince you, shift your eyes over to the results of the last election – the Liberals got a majority here, and the PC Party had only around 1/3rd of the vote. With a 15 point gap, you are going to run into trouble closing it regardless. With all polls showing John Tory polling in Ernie Eves land, the idea that the PC’s will pick up much beyond the marginals is a little shaky, and this is not one of the marginals.
07 10 07 Eating Grits, One at a Time.
Well, there is a very strong Tory candidate with a lot of support in Cornwall and across the United Counties, but he is not a francophone. Regardless, Chris Savard has worked very hard to develop the kind of visibility usually reserved for incumbents. I think his hard work and his appeal across the urban-rural divide will result in a PC pickup.
07 10 06
The numbers indicate that the Liberals should hold this seat. However, The PC is a francophone from Cornwall. IF memory serves this area was PC under Villeneve for quite a while I remember him from the mid 80s at QP. The liberal vote is approaching 50% so in theory they should be able to hold but I have heard some rumblings in eastern ontario against Stephane Dion and despite my surprise positive comments about Harper. I think therefore it is POSSIBLE that it could translate to an uptick in PC votes. Also this area does NOT have the UEL or a collection of Fine old Ontario Families who might be inclined to stay home and teach Tory a lesson. I am going to be a contrarian here and stick my neck out there ---PC by 500-700 votes a tight tight race.
07 09 29 Emily
I used to live in this riding and came home last weekend. Chris Savard is winning the sign war big time in the rural area, and I would say he is winning in lawn signs in the city too, if not, it is neck and neck with Jim Brownell. There were a lot of red signs, but they were big, which made it look like there were more than there were.
Signs don't mean much, but it helps momentum wise. I think that from what I heard from my family who are typically liberal is that they like Savard from his time on City Council and that he'll do well in Cornwall, which means I think he will win. They said that they have talked to many liberals who are doing the same- many because they don't like McGuinty. But Chris still needs the rural vote, but a lot of them are upset at how far many of them have to go to vote.
My prediction is that Savard wins:
Savard 22,000
Brownell 21,000
Taylor 3,900
Kennedy 1,100
07 09 24 LocoYoko
The people saying that Lauzon's federal victories will translate into a provincial win for Savard need to understand the situation a bit better. Kilger, at the end of his stay as MP, began to be more Ottawa than Cornwall. He didn't hit the doors near enough the last campaign. Lauzon was more visible, and so he won. Now, he's been MP for a while, but hasn't delivered anything. There's discontent growing about his performance. Brownell, on the other hand, has been doing both well - delivering stuff like hospitals, new roads and now even new jobs, while still being at all the events, meeting with people, etc. He's definitely winning the sign war by a two-to-one margin. Savard continues to stick by John Tory over faith-based funding when even other Tories, and the previous Tory candidate for this riding, are coming out against it. He's looking less like a leader and more like a follower. Brownell will hold this one - the question is by how much.
07 09 24 polisci student
I think Theo is a bit overconfident in calling a PC victory by 3000, but I can see how Savard can build on the federal success. In 2004, Lauzon beat Kilger, a popular incumbent MP in an unpopular Liberal government. The same could happen with Savard- Brownell is a popular MPP local, but McGuinty and the Liberals are not. I can see Savard taking this, but by 1500 or so...not 3000.
07 09 22 A.S.
An odd one to monitor, at least when it comes to however the Guy Lauzon effect translates provincially--could Chris Savard be the John Yakabuski of 2007? Also, the seat had the only under-5% NDP result last time, thanks in part to Tom Manley's aggressive Green campaign (before Manley got creamed as a federal Liberal). Ironically, the NDP's George Samis represented Cornwall provincially from 1974-85--and if that's not fascinating enough in Cornwall-Dipper terms, get a load of who was quixotic enough to run against the Cleary-Villeneuve battle of the giants in 1999: Toronto indie-scene hero Maggie MacDonald...
07 09 21 Ryan
I am the one who had used the word ?traditional? in my phrasing. The editor was correct with his interjection that geographically it has a good chunk of Villeneuve's old riding, but population wise favours the former Cleary riding. My train of thought on that was that the federal version of the riding had a long history of liberal representation, thus my traditional comment. That is being broken though, with Guy Lauzon being the first federal conservative to ever be re-elected in the riding. Additonally, on the provincial level, Cornwall and area has been liberal dominated and before that, was actually held by the NDP for some time. But as I said, you can't rely on federal result and that ?traditional? liberal vote is no longer a sure thing.
As I see the campaign progress, at this stage, I would still guess a liberal victory. However, I would now dare say that seeing John Tory hold his own and with Dalton failing to catch fire, I would not be as surprised to see Savard win if conditions continue to improve for the PCs as I would have before the campaign began. (Still not ready to call it PC yet, but we're still a long ways from Oct. 10th)
Does anyone who lives in the riding know how the battle is going? How is the Cornwall vs Rural contest playing out? Whichever camp can make the biggest gains into their opponent's territory will be happy on election day.
07 09 21 Pure Whig
I don't live in this riding and so won't hazard a guess as to its preference. My question is this though....someone stated that this seat is traditionally Liberal, however I thought most of it used to be part of Noble Villinuve's old riding.
Editor Note: Geographically, it was mostly Villeneuve?s old riding of SDG & East Grenville. However, population-wise, the riding mostly consists of voters from John Cleary?s old riding of Cornwall. In 1999, Cleary defeated Villeneuve by 1.5%, or about 600 votes.
07 09 19 RyanOntario
pc gain here but not by nearly as many votes as recent federal wins here.
This seat will be the most eastern seat the pc's can expect to win, as Glengary Prescott Russell seems fairly liberal.
Think Chris Savard is the type of candidate who can win this riding on local issues like agriculture and economy .
But Jim Brownell is still tough competition and it will be interesting to see how this one turns out on election night.
07 09 14 Ryan
Theo: Is that one sentence comment just your wishful thinking, or do you have some more substance to back that up? Federal vote does not necessarily = Provincial vote. Guy Lauzon federally had the advantage of a very weak liberal candidate last time around, the advantage of incumbancy and the desire to throw the liberals out of Ottawa. Brownell won't be such a pushover. I no longer live in the riding nor do I still work for the liberals as I did in 1999, so I have not seen the sign war, nor taken the pulse of the person on the street. Do you have more specifics as to how the campaign is shaping up?
I fully admit though that the Liberals can't take this seat for granted. Now since the poll numbers are showing a liberal slide provincially, this could affect the area locally. However, the campaign is still in its infancy. Once we get further along with the advertising war and the debates we might see a clearer prediction. Still too early in my books to claim a 3000 vote PC victory.
07 09 13 Theo Robertson
Chris Savard has the momentum of Guy Lauzon's federal success...Tories win by 3000.
07 09 02 Ryan
Traditionally a Liberal riding, recent federal elections have seen that stronghold broken. However, one can't make a prediction based on the federal results. There are entirely different issues and feelings on the provincial level. A successful campaign in this riding has a two part strategy. It comes down to Cornwall vs. the rest of the rural riding. We saw this in 1999 with the battle of incumbents that saw then MPP John Cleary narrowly defeat cabinet minister Nobel Villeneuve. Liberal Cleary carried Cornwall while Villeneuve had strong support in the rural part of the riding. In 2003 Jim Brownell's margin of victory was helped by the McGuinty wave, but that was not the sole factor. Jim managed to make inroads into the Tory rural areas. (Inroads by previous Liberal standards.) His challenge this time around will be that McGuinty's popularity is not what it was four years ago. The anti-Harris/Eves sentiment is not around this time. Additionally, Savard will have a following in Cornwall from his time on city council.
What is going to make or break this riding for Jim and the Liberals are two factors. #1 How much momentum will John Tory and the PCs generate provincially? If they can turn it around this will cause voters to question whether they want an opposition MPP or a gov't one. #2 Since Jim has made Liberal inroads into the rural part, how much can Savard offset that by making PC gains in the City of Cornwall? He has the name recognition from this time on council, but will it translate into gains remains to be seen?
My prediction at this stage is a Liberal win but by a reduced margin, even if the going gets rough provincially and we appear poised for a Liberal minority. However, one day in a campaign can be an eternity, so with an entire campaign remaining, a lot can still happen. If John Tory can drastically turn it around I would not be surprised to see this riding go to the Tories. A lot of stars have to line up though, so my pick remains the Liberals.
07 08 03 John F.
Jim Brownell is nervous. He is bringing in tons of Cabinet Ministers and making announcements every other day. While some say that it is because of his hard work, in reality, many of these announcements are from Trillium (which he has no power over) and others are just reannouncements from before. In the media, he is coming off as very agitated and snappy, which I think the public will see as scared.
As for who is going to win, it is TCTC and is going to be close between Savard and Brownell. There are two high-profile female NDP and Green candidates which plays in Savard's favour with splitting the center-left wing vote.
07 06 25 ruralvoter
Chris Savard will take this one. I think the Liberals in this riding aren't weighing the rural backlash against the government for Clean Water, Species At Risk, and cuts to the Ag budget. The health tax in this riding is also very unpopular. While Brownell is personally popular, he will be linked to the McGuinty record, and Savard will build on the federal Tories success and take this riding.
07 06 21 K Forget
I hate to disagree with Guylaine, but politics is played on the local field. People want to know that their representative will deliver for them, and Brownell has. The voters will remember that, and to think otherwise is just wishful thinking. This is not to say that some voters won't react to what's happened on the provincial level, and pushing the ?promise breaker? image is the only tool Savard has used so far. He's been careful not to talk about Brownell directly, because he knows he can't win on that front.
Savard is most famous from his time on council for his very public scraps with mayor Poirier and fellow Councilor Korey Kennedy. As we are likely to be looking at a minority government, members are going to need to show they can work with people of different views and political stripes than theirs; Savard has a long way to go to prove that. In terms of farmer support, Savard is seen as a city boy, whereas Brownell actually grew up on a farm and has a personal understanding of rural issues. There's a lot of rural support for the tories, as is traditionally the case, but just as Todd Lalonde wasn't able to really connect with the farm community, Savard will have the same problem.
The vote will be decided about 65% on the candidate, where Brownell is defintely better positioned, and 35% on the party, where things are closer. Voter apathy and an urge to go against whomever's in government at the time will play a role, but in the end Brownell will win by a slimmer majority than he did last time.
07 06 12 Gfriend
I wasn't sure at first, but the more I'm hearing from the media war, the more I'm going to have to go with Brownell. A friend of mine pointed some media stories out to me today; a few months ago, Savard said that no money had gone into local health care, a story which was followed up with Brownell reminding him of a number of specific achievements like hospital development and scanning machines. More recently, Savard said there was nothing for Eastern Ontario in the last budget, a fact which Brownell refuted by pointing out several things that were in the budget for this riding alone, particularly tourism funding. Criticizing the government's record is one thing; ignoring what has been accomplished and telling the public nothing's been done, when the facts show the opposite, is going to wash up your credibility fast. Savard's going to have to change his tactics soon, or run the risk of alienating voters before the writ is even dropped.
07 06 08 Guylaine
This riding is too close to call. Part of Brownell's success in 2003 was the Liberal sweep. This time round he will be judged not on his record as MPP but the record of the McGuinty Liberals. There is a very strong, deep conservative base in the counties that will not be supporting the incumbent regardless of how fine a man they think he is - including those who may have supported him in 2003.
Curious are the allusions to bleeding support and team defections given the farmers and rural supporters who are very motivated to remove the Liberals from Queen's Park and the Savard supporters in Cornwall who appreciate not only his politics and council record, but his leadership in the community. To perceive Savard as a weak candidate would be folly for the Brownell camp.
Prediction? When the polls close on Oct 10th the results will be as close as they were in 1999. The winner will be determined by Dalton McGuinty.
07 06 03 Spence
Brownell will hold on to this riding. He is far better known throughout the United Counties than his opponent, and has a lot more personal support than Savard. Even the Conservative Machine knows this, as their recent phone poll asked what people thought about John Tory, not the local candidate. The riding is Conservative on the federal level, but the current MP got in on a promise to deliver government jobs to the community, which he has failed to do. The fact that John Tory is promising to do the same thing, while also promising to shrink the overall number of government jobs, is going to undermine his credibility. Brownell has done everything he said he would do, and a few other things besides. It will come down to Brownell defending his record vs. Savard defending the contradictory promises of his party, and in that case, people will take results over uncertainty.
07 05 29 on the fence
This one will be an interesting one to watch. Savard is bleeding a lot of support, as many traditional tory supporters disagree with his politics and his record on city council. He still has Glen Grant, who has a long track record, but the defections from the tory team could still hurt Savard's chances. Brownell is the incumbent, and has a strong record of accomplishment behind him. A lot will depend on the team he puts together for the campaign.
07 05 10 Rural Analyst
Jim Brownell to hold.
Like most of Eastern Ontario, this is a socially conservative, economically moderate riding, so the federal results aren't a good barometer. Despite being in a scandal, the Tories are not in a good position to take this back as they focus heavily on the Toronto area. Since leadership and party policies will not be the story here, it will stay with Brownell by default.
07 05 10 free_thinker
This is a Conservative riding federally by a very strong margin and therefore should easily go Tory provncially. This will be a conservative pickup by 2000 votes.
07 05 09 Brian A
This is my riding, and I'm confident that it'll stay Liberal. Despite the redistribution and the fact that it's held, federally, by a Conservative, Brownell is extremely popular not just in Cornwall but elsewhere. His handling of the mini-scandal that he's involved in right now was even praised by the Tories. Easy Brownell hold.

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