Prediction Changed
4:39 PM 02/06/2007

Election Prediction Project

Parkdale—High Park
Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Progressive Conservative
Family Coalition

Parkdale-High Park (100%)
Cheri DiNovo

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 09 jc-ottawa
Gerrard Kennedy won this seat for the Liberals with a huge majority in '03. Cherie DiNovo's big win in a by-election is unlikely to be repeated. By-elections can produce erratic results and I think this is the case here. Voters may have wanted to send a message to the Liberal government a couple of years ago but the situation has evolved since then and the personal issues that existed between the candidates in the by-election won't be much of a factor in a general election.
I used to live in this riding and it can be expected to elect Liberals both provincially and federally in normal circumstances because of its diverse mix: the High Park section can be a 3-way race while the Parkdale section is normally strongly Liberal with a weak PC presence. I'm not sure who will it this time but it's going to be a lot closer than the by-election would suggest.
07 10 06 King of Kensington
This isn't even going to be close. The Liberals are running Sylvia Watson again and Cheri has established herself as a very high profile MPP. Cheri will take this by around 6,000 votes. The Conservatives will be lucky to get their deposit back.
07 10 04 MH
There's an interesting though ultimately inconclusive article on Parkdale-High Park in the October 4 Globe and Mail. Still, the article states: ‘Ms. Watson, a lawyer and former city councillor, appears to face the biggest challenge.’ This will be fairly close, but Cheri DiNovo should win. The PCs are not really in the race.
07 09 27 Zizek
I believe DiNovo will take this quite easily. This is not only a riding in which the NDP has historically had a strong presence but it is also a riding which has a sophisticated and intelligent electorate that often actually votes according to the way first past the post is designed. Voters will choose candidates who best will represent the riding at Queen's Park, rather than simply choosing along party lines. It is because the quality of the candidate often overshadows his/her party affiliation that there is such a large swing vote in the riding.
Demographics and demographic shifts will play a role. I'm not suggesting that the 64% turnaround from Kennedy to DiNovo can be causally linked to demographics. There are many factors. It was a by-election, although turnout was quite high for a by-election (almost 40%) and it wasn't a typical protest vote (if there was a protest vote it was against the type of campaign run by the Liberal). Kennedy was elected with 58% of a protest vote and a Liberal sweep. Kennedy was well liked. In the by-election, the Liberals ran a lacklustre candidate against a high profile well liked minister and community activist. This accounts for a large part of that turnaround. But the increasing presence of ‘progressives’ was important. Reaching out to the poor and working poor of the riding was important. Even Greens, if they wanted their environmental concerns represented, were forced under FPTP to vote NDP.
So in a riding where the characters matter, you have the same cast of characters in this election. What's different. The Liberals aren't running a smear campaign, but have voters forgotten or forgiven? I don't think so. The turnout could be higher, but will it favour Watson? I'm not sure. More Liberal identified voters may turn out, but some of those have been won over by the job that DiNovo has done. Progressives will likely vote NDP. Some will fall for the fear mongering line that a vote for the NDP is a vote for the Progressive Conservatives (although in a riding where the PC's have no chance it might not be a factor at all). And Greens, until we finally get some form of a proportional electoral system, will unfortunately have to vote NDP is they want someone to go fight for the environment and conservation, as well as against nuclear energy.
07 09 26 Pete B.
Thanks to Adam for correcting me about the historic NDP ties. However, I was focusing on more recent trends where the NDP were NOT the party of choice. The federal example is also misleading since Peggy Nash (who BTW has a decent record as MP) only won because the Liberal incumbent Sarmite Bulte was lacklustre and weak. I am confident Kennedy will retake this riding federally.
The sign war is definitely being won by the NDP, and there are many PC signs as well, which spells trouble for the Liberals since a strong PC showing will almost certainly confirm DiNovo's reelection. However the new SES poll shows Liberals holding support provincially after the debate (the McGuinty pity vote :)), so Watson could still steal this one.
Overall this is still TCTC but with a strong advantage for the NDP.
07 09 23 MH
The Liberals took this easily in 2003, then lost it to the NDP after Gerard Kennedy left for federal politics. By-elections are tricky: sometimes they signal a trend, more usually they are aberrations. Sylvia Watson therefore has a decent chance of winning this seat. However, a strong NDP campaign locally should save it for Cheri DiNovo. This one will be close.
07 09 21 MJL
A lot of folks here throw around demographic change as a causal explanation, when it offers a particularly poor fit to the matter at hand. Yes, this is no longer a working class eastern european riding (at least the Parkdale part once fit that description). However, demographic change does not happen at the pace that some people seem to think it does.
Forty percent of the electorate does not shift because of demographics! The most important variable has been the resources employed by each party within the riding. Even running against Gerard Kennedy, the Tories were able to get over 30% of the vote in this riding just 8 years ago (and they won its predecessor in 1995).
It is true that this riding is less Polish than it used to be - but how much less?
Lets look at census data
Average household income 1996: 47,938
Number of immigrants 1996: 47,938 (unfortunately it doesn't seem to have country of origin)
those with a non-official mother tongue 1996: 44,515 (again no country of origin, but should roughly capture the eastern european population)
university graduates 1996: 34,010
Average household income 2001: 61,591 (in line with the roughly 5%/annum economic growth during the Harris years)
Number of immigrants 2001: 44,745
(unfortunately it doesn't seem to have country of origin)
those with a non-official mother tongue 2001: 43,320 (again no country of origin, but should roughly capture the eastern european population)
university graduates 2001: 32,340
Date 07 Adam
I have to correct Pete here, the NDP does have a long tradition in this area, in fact with the by-election win it returned to its traditional roots. ?As a result of the 1999 redistribution, the new riding of Parkdale-High Park combined almost all of High Park-Swansea with 60 per cent of Parkdale and 20 per cent of York South.? ( The NDP was the traditional party of choice in High Park-Swansea going back as far as the 1970's. York South you can trace it back even farther to the 50's with MacDonald then Rae. Even the old riding of Parkdale was a bastion for the NDP until Ruprecht. Now granted demographics have changed since the 70's but you are seeing a clear swing back to the NDP. Take a look federally with Peggy Nash as the NDP incumbent, these two woman have been working very closely, i have seen this first hand. This will be another tough fight, but to say there is no tradition in this area is very incorrect.
07 09 14 Pete B.
Of the 4 lakefront NDP ridings, this is IMHO the only one that could change hands.
While Cheri DiNovo has done really well and has impressed friends and foes alike, people forget that this is not a traditional left wing riding. In spite of the yuppie influx, the demographics are more similar to St. Paul or Toronto Centre, both solid liberal territory. Sylvia Watson has not impressed in the last election but she has name recognition and, with a little humility, can give DiNovo a run for her money.
I am still giving a slight edge to the NDP but I predict that this one will be much closer than everybody expects
07 09 05 Nick J Boragina
Unlike York South Weston, another seat the NDP won in a by-election, this seat is a traditionally NDP strong area. It?s David Miller?s old seat. While the Liberals can and will pose a real threat here, I don?t see them being able to win, as traditional NDP left-wing voters return to the NDP. It will be a close race, but the NDP has the edge.
07 08 26 A.S.
This second go-around for Sylvia Watson feels a little too offputtingly sour-grapes for comfort, to the point where I wouldn't be surprised if she came in *third*. Cheri DiNovo, apparently the ultimate NDP flake, turned out to be flaky as a fox and a caucus overachiever besides--indeed, in an extreme-case scenario she (w/Paul Ferreira as backup) could well presage an urban Dipper breakthrough the same way that Chris Hodgson presaged the Common Sense Revolution...
07 08 09 Skiptea
Di Novo translates as 'again' in Portuguese and Cheri will win again. Libs did themselves no favours with the ridiculously negative by-election campaign. Stronger NDP showing resulting in a few more seats spells minority Lib or PC government with the Dippers holding the balance of power.
07 08 04 Bus driver
I don't find the so called boundary re-distribution numbers very helpful or accurate. Ryan has the most up to data since he ran twice using the new federal/provincial boundaries - just over a year ago.
His actual numbers( not projected re- distribution numbers) were 18,000+ votes.
6 weeks till the writ drops and no Liberal candidate in sight.
07 06 27 dragonflypills
Cheri DiNovo, since storming the by-election last year, has since become one of the NDP's most valued members, with a clarity in direction, and a focus on platform issues. Most notably, DiNovo seized upon the drive for $10 minimum wage, has clearly taken advantage of the demographic shifts of the riding and arguably paved the way for the subsequent NDP upset in York South-Weston (and the modest minimum wage concessions in the budget). While Gerrard Kennedy will undoubtedly take this back from Peggy Nash in the federal election (this is HIS riding), whenever that may be, DiNovo is poised to become one of the safest NDP members at Queen's Park (sorry, Rosario). And if her outspoken nature continues to yield more positive results, she seems to be a very likely leadership candidate in the near future (Shelly Martel declared she wouldn't seek re-election last month, and I predict it is only matter of time before Hampton does the same).
07 06 02 King of Kensington
This riding is increasingly filled with ?creative class? types that vote NDP. Cheri DiNovo has emerged as a high-profile MPP. This should easily stay NDP.
07 05 08 Adam
Cheri will win this riding once again. There are a couple reasons why this is. 1) This is a repeat of the by-election battle between Sylvia Watson and Cheri DiNovo; There is still bad blood in this riding over the disgusting personal attacks made towards Cheri by the liberals and Sylvia will still be paying for that mistake (the NDP will not let them forget it) This is still has a strong NDP feel. 2) Cheri is popular and is all over the media spearheading the NDP $10minimum wage campaign. She is a strong woman and some say she might be a contender if there is a leadership battle.
2) the Federal MP is Peggy Nash, a NDP member, both women have helped each other out in winning and keeping this riding. The NDP has this as a targeted riding on both levels aswell.
07 05 07 R.D.
Cheri DiNovo has been high-profile since her by-election victory, and by all accounts I hear is well liked in the riding. The only person who could win this riding back for the Liberals, IMO, is Gerard Kennedy, and he is running federally now. As for the provincial election, at least, NDP hold.

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