Prediction Changed
8:18 PM 06/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

New Democratic
Progressive Conservative
Family Coalition

Markham (100%)
Hon Michael Chan

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 07 Nick J Boragina
I’m surprised that there are so few Liberal predictions for this growing Liberal riding. It is more then just the fact that many Chinese people live here, it goes beyond race. Look at the people who love here, and more importantly, the people who move here. They are people who move out of Toronto but keep their jobs within the city. Markham is becoming more of ‘just a suburb’ in the vein that Scarborough was in years prior. Scarborough itself had elected a number of PCers in the past, but usually would elect a Liberal. Markham is starting to turn into something like that – where you might see a Tory win, but it’s going to be more Liberals then not. Remember too that Markham, in may ways, compliments and contrasts Vaughan, it’s mirror city in the York Region. Markham is following the trend of the entire York Region in that it’s becoming more Liberal. The voters that elected federal and provincial members in the 90’s, have become outnumbered by newcomers. This is now a Liberal riding.
07 09 03 NT
Although the demographics of the riding has changed, and it has been a tradition of the immigrants to vote Liberal. However, the demographics of people who vote Tory have also change. The Ontario PC party in Markham-Unionville is no longer a ?White-man's? club. It has transformed to be a multicultural and multiethinic organization. I went to a nomination meeting in Markham-Unionville to observe how they choose a candidate, and I expected to find only Seniors of Anglo-saxon background, only to be surprised by the vast numbers of Chinese and South Asians who had gone to the meeting and were party members. I looked around and saw that they were 99% of all the people there. I asked around and a vast majority of them were former liberals. As I have said before, John Tory has a greater chance to capture this riding due to the fact that the demographic of PC voters and party members is changing. The PC party is no longer the Mike Harris, Whiteman's club anymore; it is John Tory's Ontario PCs, a party that is willing to serve all Ontarians, no matter what their background is.
07 08 25 A.S.
The traditional PCdom here, though, has taken a big dent through the redistributing-away of the heart of Old Markham--and that change wasn't even accounted for yet in the byelection. Not that tradition hadn't jumped the shark already, though, through growth and demographic change. While I'd *like* to bow to apparent tradition by withholding a prediction, something tells me that (esp. w/Michael Chan's advance cabinet promotion) this might be more likely to swing away than t/w the Tories...
07 06 27 Full Name
Considering that the by election of 2007 had one of the lowest number of registered voters voting, that this is traditionally a PC riding, and that there is a PC candidate that has strong credentials and has been an active member of the community, I would say that John Tory and his team will probably gain back this seat for the PC Party
07 05 05 M. Lunn
After seeing the Tories do so poorly in the by-election, I cannot see them winning this back. This may have been a safe Tory riding 10 years ago, but it is more of an extension of Toronto than a suburb of its own as it was 10 years ago. The demographics here have shifted too much in favour of the Liberals for the Tories to realistically retake this.

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