Prediction Changed
8:21 PM 06/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Progressive Conservative
New Democratic

Durham (83.6%)
John O'Toole
Pickering-Ajax-Uxbridge (16.4%)
Wayne Arthurs

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 08 RT
Hands down John O'Toole on Wednesday. MS from Durham and Durham Gal seem to be disillusioned... O'Toole is well respected in his riding, I think the win in the previous elections solidifies this. The blanket comment from MS Durham, ‘I have met almost no one who has much respect for him as a politician...’ this would indicate too me that you are clearly voting Liberal and speaking to closely with the party junkies who would no doubt make such remarks as he continues to clean up after all these so called ‘stellar’ candidates the Liberals have put forth in past few elections in Durham. Durham Gal seems to think that being born and raised on a 6th generation farm in the Uxbridge area is going to help Somerville be a politician...a comment like that concerns me as a voter, because frankly, I want someone knowledgeable, dedicated, and experienced to represent me and my interests....whether they can farm, well I am not too bothered.
07 10 04 DW
At this point I've changed my earlier position and am now going with TCTC. The money of the blue machine here is definitely overwhelming for the other candidates. However, the faith-based funding, O'Toole's poor reputation and evident lack of knowledge on policy are making it difficult for people to be satisfied. On the other hand, Somerville has definitely shown she is a rookie by struggling to react solidly on her feet and present herself as anything more than timid during debates. It doesn't always instil confidence. But I still believe it's going to be close because I've had the chance to talk to a lot of people and while early on the majority were undecided, over the last week I've been hearing much more support for the Liberals than the Conservatives. However, you can't discount the number of deep blue constituents in this riding. If Somerville does pull it out I would chalk it up to the strategy of the campaign team as much as I would the other influences.
07 10 03 Nick J Boragina
The Durham Region has some of the highest property taxes in the GTA. That might make someone think that ridings like this will therefore go for a tax-and-spend party. The reality, however, is that Durham is also a very right-wing place. Many of the new comers are upper middle class people who wanted to not only move to a suburb, but a burb that is far away from the lower middle class people who move to the burbs. This riding in particular is very rural, it’s a PC lock.
07 09 26 durham voter
after last night's rogers debate it is obvious that somerville either has a bunch of little leaguers running her campaign or she is outright clueless. the reason i say this is because she was nowhere to be seen last night. all common sense would suggest that you chase the incumbent. just another example of why this riding is staying in the blue column.
07 09 26 durham gal
John O'Toole not at the only agriculture and Port Perry debate. Not good. As a politcal hack I felt a street smart O'Toole slipped up here. Three polls in Bowmanville to O'Toole and one to Sommerville. Two polls in Darlington to O'Toole one Orono poll to Sommerville. No prediction yet.
07 09 25 MS from Durham
As a long time resident of the riding, I would disagree with the previous poster's opinion that O'toole is popular in the riding - on the contrary, I have met almost no one (other than those on his campaign team), who has much respect for him as a politician. His electoral success up to now has been solely due to this being such a Tory blue riding. There are tons of farmers who have never dreamed of voting anything but PC, and other than the one blip in 1990, they have kept the riding blue.
I think this riding will be close this time for three reasons:
1)O'toole's growing unpopularity (the bird-flipping/lying incident may come back to bite him this time)
2) The faith-based school funding issue is hugely unpopular with the rural community that has so far made the Tories successful in this riding. If those farmers turn away from Tory, or stay home on election day, O'toole may be in for a close call.
3) The Liberal candidate, Somerville is very popular and well known in the north of the riding, which is rural and traditionally supported Otoole.
This riding will surprise a lot of observers on election night! Put in the the TCTC column.
07 09 24 durham voter
from what i can tell this should be game set match for otoole. if for some reason somerville is able to pull this off it wont be because of her campaign team, campaigning ability or name recognition. in fact it will because of a complete breakdown in the tory campaign or the faith based school issue will explode.
07 09 23 JT
Durham is an easy hold for John O'Toole. He's popular in the riding, is running against someone who, from what I've heard, is relatively unknown outside of the Scugog area.
07 09 22 durham gal
If I was a candidate I sure would not hire the person who commented on Uxbridge. Please give voters credit for some intelligence. I am following Uxbridge with great interest because there is no incumbant.
In fact, if you do your homework 21 percent of voters are new to the riding over the last six years, this is on top of Uxbridge Township. These voters are open for anyone so lets see who goes for them. I will be watching. No predictions yet.
07 09 21 SE
The submissions from Durham Gal are quite telling. While I suspect she is supporting the Liberal candidate, it is sad that she has nothing to sell us on about her candidate other than her ?sixth generation? refrain. That may have helped a century ago, but voters are looking for more than ancestry. The Liberal candidate is a virtual unknown who stepped up when local councillors would not risk taking on O'Toole, who is well known and popular. Uxbridge? That is a solid addition of PC polls to Durham, which is why Arthurs virtually ignored the community when he was MPP. O'Toole in a wider margin than 2003.
07 09 21 durham gal
Attended the all candidates debate in Uxbridge. Focal interest in area Health Care. No incumbent in Uxbridge. John O'Toole came unprepared. Allowing doctors to work in private clinics in stead of hospitals disastrous position in Uxbridge with the voters.
Liberal candidate born and raiser on six generation farm in Uxbridge township will help liberal candidate. I mention all of this because this township of twenty thousand could decide the election. No candidate will receive forty five percent of the votes in this riding. No predictions yet.
07 09 16 ADH
If the PC and O'Toole lose this riding then they will be looking at a break down on the level of Campbell. True their have been new people move into Clarington but the majority of them will not bother to vote and the rural population will come out strong for O'Toole; he will take this riding with at least 45% of the vote
07 09 11 Durham Gal
This riding is very interesting. People are excited about the liberal candidate for a number of reasons. Her background, her family has farmed in the riding for six generations, she is married to a farmer she is a women, her profession and most of all her extensive background working as a medical volunteer in so many fields even serving overseas on medical foreign missions. People all over the riding have come forward because Betty has helped them in one way or another and their respect for her is heartfelt. I have worked in thirty three elections in this riding and I know who is who. I was at a very very large function and had a Betty button on and several very very big tories came and shook my hand, they thought I was betty, but I know who they were.
Not making predictions yet, but will keep you updated.
07 09 11 RyanOntario
The previous poster mentioned the liberals won Bowmanville in 03 , but in more recent federal elections Clarington/Bowmanville voted conservative both times. i checked this out on the elections canada site. so we will see what happens this election.
07 09 11 A.S.
Er...Durham going Liberal? Is there *that* much disillusionment w/John O'Toole? It even stayed Tory in '87! So what about major investments under the Liberals; you can't spite O'Toole simply because he's not of the governing party (heck, he was openly critical of his own party's campaign last time). And the federal Grits offered an even better-known Scugogger last time (Doug Moffatt), and he got pummelled. As for Bowmanville/Courtice, they weren't *that* much more Liberal than the norm or distinct from each other, and I can't see a so-called major swing in the works unless the demographics trend in an inner-GTA diversity direction (is this still a 90%+ white seat?). If anything was most ?Liberal? (or at least non-Tory), it's the now-lost part of Oshawa. Besides, wouldn't the current tenor of rural/landowner unrest work on behalf of the Tories? If PC loses votes here, it'll be because of the school-funding issue (again, note demographics).
07 09 06 DW
A feeling of change is in the air for Durham. O'Toole's popularity is at its lowest since he originally won the riding in 1995. Even srdent Conservative supporters like the Ontario Land Owners Association have been expressing dismay with the lack of action by O'Toole. All major investments in the riding and region have come from the Liberals and that hasn't gone unnoticed. And while Conservative rich Uxbridge will give O'Toole a boost he is running against a well-known candidate from the other major centre (Port Perry-Scugog) of the northern area of the riding. Then there is the issue of the majority of votes of the riding (alomst 2/3 of them) coming from the southern area of the riding. It's mostly made up of Bowmanville and Courtice. In the last election, Bowmanville was won by the Liberal while Courtice was just won by the Conservatives. With four years of growth and the population coming from other Ontario urban centres and the demographic getting younger, Courtice is now ripe to see a major swing towards the Liberals. This will be a very tight race and has a very strong chance of becoming a hugr upset in favour of the Liberals.
07 05 28 Durham Guy
O'toole should win this with easy. Redistribution got rid of his worse part of the riding and gave him Tory rich Uxbridge. On top of that in his home part of the riding Clarington has seen a huge shift to the right for Mayor, on Council, and School Board.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
This is far enough from Toronto, to be pretty safe territory for the Tories both provincially and federally. O'Toole should hold this without much trouble.

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