Prediction Changed
8:19 PM 06/05/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Family Coalition
Progressive Conservative
New Democratic

Brant (91.8%)
Dave Levac
Haldimand-Norfolk-Brant (8.2%)
Toby Barrett

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 01 Nick J Boragina
Other then the off chance that John C Turmel will finally win an election (hes in the book of world records for having fun [far] more times then anyone else on the planet and always lost) this riding will go Liberal. Caledonia is on the other side of the native reserve, and that reserve has not (yet) made any claims on land on its west though it is worth nothing the historical claim that they base their Caledonia claim on does include parts of some 12 ridings, including the entire waterloo and brant regions. Regardless, we are not there yet, and the issue is not as big as some would think. This riding may have historically gone NDP or PC, but time election it will go Liberal.
07 09 23 RyanOntario
updating/changing my prediction for this riding.
the lack of any comments or opinions for the pc's or ndp is saying something. but Hampton and Tory still did visit this riding during the campaign. Hampton has visited this riding a few times using the local jobs issue but maybe its not working and ndp is maybe wrong party to talk about jobs after Rae years. but then again this riding doesn't always follow a province wide tread or even vote the same as ridings nearby. so its not an easy one to predict and i noticed it was predicted wrong last federal election.
07 09 22 A.S.
Judging from Levac's electoral record and the mostly-urban nature of the riding, Brant ought to be a Liberal hold, easy. One thing I'd like to know, though, is how NDP signage is going--after all, this used to be a provincial and even federal stronghold for the party, and it's gone back into the 20%+ range under Jack Layton; is that trend being echoed provincially? Probably won't work to defeat Levac, though it might be pundit-unanticipated interesting if NDP nudges out PC for second...
07 09 06 BW
Levac is way too well-known and extremely popular to have anyone upset him in Brant. Levac has handily beaten his PC opponent in the last election and she was much more popular than McCreary is. Don't underestimate Brantford's population understanding that Levac has no control over the Caledonia situation (it's a federal matter) and that Caledonia is outside of the Brant riding. In addition, McCreary has already began to get himself into trouble by utrying to use his council position to further his provincial election campaign with questionable decisions made in favour of members of his campaign team. Such moves are not easily forgotten by the Brantford public. They are not that forgiving either. Remember that Brant was once an NDP stronghold and elected a Conservative following Rae's NDP's downfall. That Conservative, Ron Johnson, was a terrible disaster even to the point that other Conservatives would openly take shots at him. The one time the centre-left leaning population of Brantford took a chance on a Conservative turned out to be a huge mistake and it won't simply be forgotten. This is Levac's win, hands-down.
07 08 10 RyanOntario
two words caledonia and job loses. both have been in the news constantly in this riding . locals are getting tired of the never ending caledonia dispute and the local economy has been hit hard with at least 4-5 plant closures since the 2003 election .
expect this riding to either go pc or ndp but definitely not liberal after all this.
the pc's seem to have a good candidate Dan Mccreary but this isn't really pc territory so the ndp could have a chance here as well since there doing good in nearby hamilton.
07 05 05 M. Lunn
This is a very safe Liberal riding and Levac is quite popular so I expect the Liberals to have little trouble holding this. It may be vulnerable federally as voting patterns there seem to be more along the large cities versus smaller communities, but provincially the rural/urban divide exists, but is not as strong as it is federally.

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