Prediction Changed
10:53 PM 04/10/2007

Election Prediction Project

Ontario Provincial Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Progressive Conservative
New Democratic
Family Coalition

Brampton Centre (77.7%)
Linda Jeffrey
Bramalea-Gore-Malton-Springdale (22.3%)
Kuldip Kular

2003 Result (redistributed):

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07 10 07 Nick J Boragina
Being a former ‘big shot’ from another party does not guarantee a win. Look at people like Paul Hellyer, someone who served in the cabinet of Pierre Trudeau, but who lead the dead-end CAP for years, and now claims to see UFO’s. Even if the PC Candidate here is a former Liberal MPP we must keep this in current context. For one, after a gap out of Parliament to return representing another party does not always end well, just ask Chris Axworthy. I also disagree with the statement that winning by 1000 is not winning. Winning by 1 is winning. The Liberals won here last time and redistribution only helps. The Liberals have the edge going on. I’d also note that federally this riding was the only one in the GTA that Reform had any kind of respectable showing in, perhaps an odd note, but a note nonetheless.
07 10 02 Shreveport Pirate
I've spent a lot of time in this riding the past few weeks, and if election signs are any indication, Linda Jeffrey's outnumber the rest of the candidates combined by a 2:1 margin.
The Liberals delivered on two issues that are very important in this area: the opening of the William Osler Health Centre and the extension of Highway 410.
Politicians of all stripes admired how Linda Jeffrey conducted herself in the debate over Region of Peel representation. Also, I think many PC supporters may have trouble rallying behind a turncoat retread like Carman McClelland.
This time it won't even be close.
07 10 02 Old Willowdaler
I remember well Carmen from QP back during the Peterson days. I am have been close to the Peterson's since childhood and know the entire London ‘gang’ of the party -Don Smith, Bill Murray, Vince Borg Gord Ashworth etc. So I do have a bias in that party's favour. However, that said I think the Liberals will hold this. As I said in my other postings. The Indian and specifically the Sikh communities in Canada are very secular and send their kids to public schools due to their history and have a better understanding they the old stock Ontarians of John Tory's proposal. It would do us all well to take a few minutes to talk to them about this issue (see my posting in other Brampton ridings for more info)THey will in fact I believe vote Liberal. Oh and to the poster who referred to Carmen as a WASP... Hint his surname is Irish secondly WASP is White Anglo Saxon Protestant (coming form England) I think you meant to say ‘British’ as in the context of the 2 British Isles which are home to the Celtics(Welsh & Irish), Saxon's, Scots, as well as Descendents of the Romans and Vikings. Sorry for the histronics lesson but WASP is too liberally thrown about on here!
07 09 26 MS
Like many of others who have posted here, it really is too close to call. That being said, I think the Tories have put forward an excellent campaign with Carman McClelland. Brampton is usually a swing vote and I think that it's not Linda Jeffrey's riding to lose - instead it's the McGuinty factor that will cost them this one.
One interesting thing to note is that in a Liberal landslide victory last time around, Linda only won by around 1000 votes, one of the closest finishes in the province. The Liberals didn't actually win it last time, the PC's didn't get their vote out. They won't have to work hard to get their vote out this time with Dalton McGuinty's record.
07 09 26 George
A note of interest --- there are a LOT of signs for the NPD candidate, Mani Singh, in the area. A neighbour of mine was quite shocked to learn (granted, from me) that Mr. Singh is NOT a Sikh, as some seem to assume solely based on his name. Would this fact make a difference to those considering voting based on his name, rather his party?
07 09 23 JS
Looking around im seeing a fairly equal amount of signs up, which makes it appear closer than I think it is.
Linda Jeffreys does however have a lot to defend, mainly McGuilty, he has made decisions ie peel redistribution, health tax, reduced hospital beds, and expected closure of peel memorial that are by no means in the interests of bramptonians. The fact that she stood against him on at least the peel redistribution earns points but if he wasnt around it wouldnt have happened.
Given all this, and the fact that McClelland crossed the floor I think the liberals will take it since I as an advocate follower of politics and a dedicated tory am somehow still undecided on what to do.
07 09 23 RyanOntario
too close to call , this area has been a swing area and voted for pc's and liberals before. oddly the liberal they voted for back in the 90's is now the pc candidate . unsure how that is playing out or if has helped anyone's campaign. but the liberal mpp now is only a backbencher and that might make this a close race. find brampton to be more a swing area, see if thats true on election day.
07 09 15 Andrew Cox
Liberal hold.
1) Again, my usual caveat on Peel region predictions. The huge demographic and voter turnover here makes us all guessers on how the electorate will behave.
2) The major issue here is the local hospital, which was supposed to be a ‘P3’ and was changed to a ‘AFP’, the difference between the two something I simply don't grasp that involves how the funding is allocated and who holds the title. But what I do understand is that a) voters are happy the hospital is getting built, b) CUPE is mad their members won't automatically get a job paying them $28.50 to push a broom, c) the opposition parties will quibble over details. Frankly, I think a) is all that matters.
3) Linda Jeffery has done well enough on the local issues to stay on top of the riding. She accompanied McGuinty on his trip to India and Pakistan, which had her in the Indo-Canadian press every day for a month. She stood up against Hazel McCallion on the issue of Peel amalgamation. She made sure the hospital got built. Its a record about as good as a backbencher can expect to deliver.
3) Those of you who followed this page in 2003 may recall my vitriolic hatred of Joe Spina, possible the scummiest dirtbag at Queen's Park. Apparently the man he beat, Carman McClelland, was the previous record holder. A friend of mine once worked for him, and let me just say, he's doesn't seem like the kind of person who will mend fences will PC supporters wondering if they should support a former Liberal. And, as AS points out, who in this riding is going to remember an MPP turfed out twelve years before?
4) Demographics and redistribution help the Liberals considerably.
5) But, again, its Peel. Who knows?
07 09 13 David A.
Brampton used to be a Conservative town as it is the home of Bill Davis after all. Yet, remember those were the days of the red Tories. Recently, it seems Brampton turned Liberal. Yet Linda Jeffries' win appeared to be more of a backlash against the failures of the Harris and Eves government than anything else and her status as a former city councillor worked in her favour. However, Linda is competent and the fact the Tories couldn't do better than to bring in Carman McClelland (yes, there are those who remember him as a Liberal and a bad one at that!) doesn't speak well for the opposition. Linda should be able to do well based solely on her record.
07 09 09 A.S.
Well, it turns out Tim Peterson's got company, for the Tory candidate is far from 'invisible': it's Carman McClelland, Liberal MPP for Brampton North in 1987-95! Which makes it an odd-for-2007 situation: a pair of WASPy political types as the main competitors fighting it out for Singhdale. Jeffrey only won narrowly over Joe Spina in '03; but boundary changes work to her favour, as does new development, changing demographics, and just plain incumbency--and besides, how many constituents even remember Carman McClelland? Then again, it's in heavily 'ethnic' seats like this where John Tory's school funding issue might--and only might--be put to the test. Who knows? I just see this as another ?go with the flow? Peel Region seat.
07 09 08 George
Since my last posting, a Tory candidate has emerged. The best they could do was a former Liberal MPP that nothing good to say about the Tories when he was sitting in the House. And someone that is either unknown in the community, or few people have anything good to say about him. Have the Tories conceded this Riding to the Liberals ??
07 08 20 George
Linda Jeffrey has done well in her 4 years as an MPP. She has delivered the new hospital as promised, she has delivered the 410 extension to Mayfield as promised. The hospital deal is not 'great' but certainly beats the P3 deal the Tories had. At least the hospital Board owns the hospital -- something that would not have happened with the Tory P3 deal. The Tories cut so many ribbons for the 410 extension, that you could have paved it with them ....... but not inch of pavement was laid.
With an unknown NPD candidate, and a Tory candidate that has been invisible (not a word in the local papers about him/her), this Riding should stay Liberal.

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