Prediction Changed
3:50 PM 07/04/2007

Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge-Mission
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
TBA

Incumbent:
Randy Kamp

2006 Result:
Randy Kamp **
20946
Mike Bocking
18225
Keith Henry
10556
Robert Hornsey
1694
Dan Banov
327
Erin Knipstrom
277
Frank Martin
95

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 02 17 A.S.
99.233.96.153
If the NDP's in a mood to be motivated, this was their closest remaining finish behind the Tories in BC in '06 (they came closer to winning in Esquimalt-JDF and Newton-ND, but against Liberals). Maybe having a long name and being on the less travelled side of the Fraser has rendered this a neglected sleeper among BC's competitive seats; but, competitive it is. (And going back two decades, it saw the NDP's sleeper upset of PC cabmin--and current Senator--Gerry St. Germain.)
07 05 21 Dr Bear & Prof Ape
70.53.98.242
Interesting poll numbers out lately. The CPC is down 8% in western Canada while the NDP is up 8% (same poll has Liberals up 3% and Greens down 3% in western canada). With numbers like that, ridings like this are definitly in play! Still, this is a moot point since an election won't happen until fall at the earlier (we're now predicting one in early 2008...to the polls again in our winter boots!)
07 05 18 DL
38.99.136.242
The latest Ipsos poll now has the NDP in first place in BC at 30% and CPC support has collapsed to the low 20s - that makes this seat very low hanging fruit for the NDP.
07 04 16 Emisar
192.197.82.155
NDP support in BC has stagnated in the last year. And the NDP has gone with the same candidate that has lost the last two elections. MP Randy Kamp has been high profile, is a Parliamentary Secretary, and is generally regarded as a good constituency MP. The only hope the NDP has is for a total collapse of the Liberal/Green vote, something that is unlikely. The NDP may finish third if the Libs run a strong campaign.
07 04 06 M. Lunn
24.80.152.58
In all likelihood the Conservatives should hold this one, however the NDP is strong here and if they choose a really strong candidate and are able to convince many Liberals to vote strategically, they could pull it off, but I would say there is a 90% chance the Tories will hold this one.



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