Prediction Changed
6:34 PM 24/03/2007

Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2007

Constituency Profile

Harris, Gordon
Labelle, Gerry
Marleau, Diane
First Peoples National
Morin, Will
Popescu, J. David
New Democratic
Thibeault, Glenn

Hon. Diane Marleau

2006 Result:
Diane Marleau **
Gerry McIntaggart
Kevin Serviss
Joey Methé
Stephen Butcher
Dave Starbuck
Sam Hammond
J. David Popescu

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result

Put your political/campaign ad here! See sponsorship details.

08 10 09 northbynorthwest
Layton drew 150 today at a noon rally Thursday. Those are good numbers for a late morning event. If this riding goes NDP, then it is likely seven or eight orange seats of 10 for Northern Ontario. This would be one of the last to fall for the Liberals, along with Kenora. In the final days Dion's strategic message that a vote for NDP is a vote for Harper will play big. I don't see that message getting through in the north as much as the rest of the province. New Democrats have been effective in the media in challenging Marleau's claim to representing constituents in getting FedNor funding for projects like CEMI, Centre for Mining Excellence, citing the two New Democrat incumbents (Angus and Martin) for raising the issue in Parliament. I think this seat still is up for grabs.
08 10 07 AverageJoey
Other sites have moved this riding into question, or thrown it over to the New Democrat Glenn Thibeault, especially after stories in the paper last week about how he effectively thumped Marleau on the homelessness issue in Sudbury. The local newspaper discussion boards have lit up with people talking about the New Democrats. The sign war is starting to show a decisive orange winner.
The final bump here may come Thursday when Jack Layton rolls into the downtown for a mid-day rally at Science North.
08 10 01 Nick J Boragina
While not likely to change the election, the media is reporting that at an all candidates debate in a school, Independent: Popescu, J. David, said ‘Gays should be executed’
Not the most tolerant candidate ever.
He's now under criminal investigation.
08 03 01 Pierre from Québec
‘If applause is any indication of popularity, the campaign of Liberal incumbent Diane Marleau is in trouble in the Sudbury riding.
Marleau received only lukewarm applause and many jeers from the packed public gallery at Tom Davies Square during the Chamber of Commerce federal election debate.’
08 09 27 NJam101
Diane Marleau should win again as she is well liked even though it has been a long time since her cabinet days. I have not heard a lot that would suggest Thibeault will win but it seems he will do decently well. The conservative canadidate was lucky to get over 10,000 votes last time and Labelle may do the same again. Marleau seems to established to to lose her core supporters and will win. I just can't think of anything she has done to turn away voters.
08 09 24 Average Joey
If any of you have talked to people on the street in Sudbury, you'd know this is not a safe seat for Diane Marleau. An even better indication is the Sudbury Star blogs where the wolves are closing in on our tired 20 year MP. There is a massive undecided vote out there, and the conservative candidate has certainly been doing his work to gain some of it. An influential community leader (Mahood) all but endorsed the conservatives in a recent editorial in the paper, and many people have also said ‘it's time we had someone on the winning team’...
08 09 19 jdl
The NDP seem to be targeting Diane Marleaus record in the house. If the info that she has a stellar record on vote attendance and committe work is put out there she will do as well as last time or better.As a long time MP there are a large no. of people she has helped. This should be reflected on voting day.
08 05 02 R.O.
Have to agree in the sense for all the years I have followed elections i cannot remember one where this riding did not elect a liberal either federally or provincially. The Sudbury riding is urban and northern basically bedrock liberal territory. So unless Diane Marleau retires before the next election it stays where it is. In other Sudbury news the previous ndp candidate Gerry Mcintaggart is running again. The conservatives have a new candidate Gerry Labelle as Kevin Serviss is not running again.
08 03 10 binriso
The only time the Liberals had ever lost this riding was in a 1967 fluke by-election where the NDP won by 159 votes. Theyll hold on to win once again.
07 07 14 A.S.
Strangely enough, despite '06's near-disastrous Sudbury-area schism on the right, Kevin Serviss *did* build slightly on CPC's '04 result (it was in neighbouring Nickel Belt where the Tory vote truly collapsed--and there may also have been reverberations in the static/lower results in neighbouring ridings, even Nipissing-Timiskaming). The NDP's definitely got reason to hope, esp. w/a former MP as mayor in an upset--but the seat's been chronically Grit-moderate in a moonscape Tor/Van Centre way for ages, so it's hard to say whether now is the time for the pattern to break at last. Especially if Marleau is running again, and/or the Dippers are distracted by the easier-bet open-seat Nickel Belt...
07 05 03 Former Sudburian
Diane Marleau won last time, but the NDP has been making steady gains. I think this will probably stay Liberal but it depends on a number of factors. Last time the Conservative candidate was closely aligned with the religious right and despite running an aggressive campaign, couldn't break out of his base. If the Tories put up a moderate candidate, they may steal away Liberal votes. The NDP asked voters to lend them votes they would otherwise cast for the Grits. How many of these voters will return to the fold? Finally, unlike some rural Northern Ontario ridings Sudbury is experiencing a relatively strong economic boom and some minor population growth. The NDP's hope to tap into voter anger probably won't be as successful here. Add to this Diane's popular decision to vote against the Quebec as a nation motion (especially popular among the large francophone community here) and it looks this will stay Liberal. But I do think it might be too early to call this.
07 04 21 John
It is to close to call. The NDP has a strong organization in this ridding. The NDP will make a major breakthrough in Nothern Ontario. I expect they will pick up most seats in this region. Jack Layton has said Northern Ontario will be his priority in the next federal election (last election it was British Columbia). So, we can expect big chances in NDP favour.
07 04 02 M. Lunn
Of the Northern Ontario ridings, this is the safest Liberal one, so even if the Liberals lose seats here, this one will stay Liberal.
07 03 22 initial
This riding had always voted liberal (except in a by-election in the 70s) it was also one of the few ridings that stayed liberal in 1984. Marleau's lead will shrink a bit, but she'll be re elected.

Submit Information here

Provincial Index
Federal Election - 2007
Election Prediction Project -
© Milton Chan, 1999-2007 - Email Webmaster