08 02 10	Rebel 99.246.104.177
I must lean towards this riding going Liberal again. The Conservatives best chance in this riding was on the basis of a national sweep rather than a riding by riding battle. David McGuinty has too many pluses against a Conservative candidate still not well known. He has engineered a lot of press (unlike from 2004-6 when he was invisible) most of it showing a generally aggressive critic attacking the Conservatives on a mix of local or environmental issues. Now I think most of his attacks are pure blarney and he shows little or no statesmanlike behaviour but that of itself will not prevent him from at least holding onto the important advantage of being a McGuinty with his brother still basking in the post-2007 victory. McGuinty can still be vulnerable to strong Green/NDP campaigns, both of which can attract support from otherwise strongly Liberal areas of the riding (the Greens attract votes from upper middle income Alta Vista, the NDP can get votes from the very poor Muslim polls as in 2004 with Monia Masigh). I don't know anything about the current Green candidate and there is not as yet an NDP candidate - so these two possible challenges to the bedrock Liberal vote are not yet established. The Conservatives should continue to nibble away at the Liberals in southern areas of the riding but at this point it is not apparent that they can convert the narrow margins in 2004 in blossom Park, South Keys etc to big margins in 2008... If I was to guess, I would suggest a Liberal margin of about 6,500-7,000 or about 8%...
	07 10 03	Rebel 198.103.104.12
I think it is far too early for any pundits to be tossing this riding to the Liberals, though I do agree with much of the substance that has been raised in prior posts. First, David McGuinty in Opposition, is creating more of a persona for hismelf than from 2004-6, when he was an invisible member in the back benches of the Liberal government. At the local level, the Conservative candidate will be a local businessman, Eli Salibi, who comes from the Greenboro part of the riding in the south end. He is a Lebanese Orthodox and will have an entree into a traditionally Liberal constituency with many members living in the riding (his church, that of Saint Elias and its hall is the venue for the huge Lebanese Food Festival each summer). In 2006, the Conservatives came close, about 6% behind and have a good base in the riding's south end. They need to apply locally the strategic politics that the government is orchestrating to get their majority - a breakthrough in often ethnic-tinged middle and upper income suburban voters.
	07 07 14	A.S. 74.99.222.209
A little curious that the Grits scored their best Ottawa-area share here--no, not because it's the Premier's seat and the Premier's bro', but because Ottawa South outshared traditionally stronger zones like Ottawa-Vanier (and against a star Tory, yet--though as overrated stars go, Allan Cutler was clearly the Monia Mazigh of 2006, and not even because they ran in the same riding). Perhaps it's all vindicated by how David McG's caucus star's risen since then--no mere carpetbagger off bro' or off John Manley, he; indeed, he's probably now the linchpin behind any a National Capital Region recovery for the federal Grits following the catastrophic losses over the past decade. On that count, I'll hand him the prediction--though he might survive the same way provincial Grits like Jim Bradley and Sean Conway remained islands in a decade-plus sea of Bob Rae and Mike Harris...
	07 04 12	Full 74.12.80.6
Undoubtedly a Liberal win once again. Alan Cutler's star candidacy with strong support from Harper wasn't enough to take out McGuinty last time so odds are this stays Liberal.
	07 04 08	Brian Appel 70.48.240.240
I'm with Lunn here. If Cutler couldn't take it in '06, then the Conservatives won't be winning this seat anytime soon. The McGuinty brothers will continue to hold Ottawa South for the time being.
	07 04 06	Phil D. 64.230.101.70
I often pass through the riding. It has a large contingent of immigrants from the Middle East and Muslims, a rapidly growing segment of the population. And according to Canadian Muslim organizations, about 80% of Muslims vote Liberal and most of the rest NDP. This might eventually become as strong as a Scarborough seat for the Grits.
	07 04 06	74.108.19.47
There is no way this riding is going to change. David McGuinty easily won in 2006 when the campaign was a disaster, even then against a star candidate. Now in 2007 when the campaign is likely to be better and no star candidate for the conservatives, there is no way McGuinty is going to lose. All Im going to say is, ‘Welcome back to the House of Commons, MP Mcguinty. Liberal Hold
	07 04 02	M. Lunn 74.99.130.109
The Tories do have some strength in the Southern parts of the riding which are more suburban, but on the whole this is really too urban for them. If star candidate Allan Cutler couldn't take this, I doubt whoever they choose will. Besides whatever unpopularity the McGuinty name has elsewhere, it is reasonably popular here.