08 04 10	Doug The Slug 192.30.202.21
The question then is whether Liberal Gauthier loses any votes on the right to the Conservative Jordan Katz. I'm not seeing a lot of Conservative cabinet ministers in London handing out cheques these days as this doesn't seem to be a targetted area for Stephen Harper and his team. This makes me believe that the Liberals won't be losing a lot of votes to the Conservatives and Gauthier beats Maytheyssen in a close race.
	08 04 01	R.O. 66.186.79.51
Well an interesting 3 way race is going to take place here. With ndp numbers in Ontario slightly up its possible Irene Mathyssen puts up a stronger fight here than expected. But this seat is such an untraditional ndp seat its hard to say if she could hold it. The liberals will clearly target it since its an urban riding they previously held although there new candidate Jackie Gauthier is not exactly well known on the political scene yet and party is not gaining much ground in the polls from last election. conservatives will be running a new candidate Jordan Katz. The conservatives I could picture them taking maybe 1 seat out of the 3 city ridings. But not really sure which one is most likely. But for the time being London fanshawe remains an odd 3 way race without a real favorite
	08 03 15	Curley, Larry and Moe 24.244.244.114
Irene Mathyssen proved that if you run for public office enough times, you eventually get lucky and win. All three of us have heard that a lot of traditional Liberal vote stayed home in London-Fanshawe last time as they were unhappy with the outgoing government. Irene just happened to be in the right place at the right time as Conservative Dan Mailer ended up being a bust as a candidate meaning the Consevatives didn't do enough to be competative. Things will be a lot different in London this time around. The Liberals are without a doubt energized. Fundraising in London is up as is the membership. Meanwhile the NDP are simply treading water, hoping things break right again. We all agree that London-Fanshawe goes back to the Liberals this time out.
	08 02 23	I'm Always Right 69.49.38.86
London has a large university and college vote and those people understand what strategic voting is all about. Conservatives in Fanshawe know the only way to get rid of Irene M. is to vote Liberal. The Liberals know they have a very good shot at taking back this riding so their vote is motivated. Meanwhile, Jack Layton and the NDP are going to get squeezed out as Canadians decide whether they want a Conservative or Liberal minority government. Irene is going down and I predict she returns to her provincial NDP roots and runs for Howie Hampton in 2011.
	08 02 19	City Slicker 192.30.202.20
Wow! I can't believe all the posters here who are too afraid to make a prediction for London-Fanshawe. Mathyeson ran for a seat so many times here (both federal and provincial) that she finally got lucky. Irene's luck runs out this April when votes here return to the Liberals in an attempt to knock Harper and the Conservatives out of power. Look for Mathyson to run here again after she gets beat. What else has she got to do?
	08 12 30	A.S. 99.233.96.153
I, too, don't want to jump the gun in declaring Irene M. toast. However, as I earlier speculated on Jeff Watson's ‘third-place incumbent’ potential in Essex, I'd probably place her ahead in that light now--yes, the laptop thing might play a part, at least in a Rae-Government-redux way of sobering London voters away from this electing-an-NDPer-to-Ottawa experiment. But also watch the national polls, especially if NDP remains mired in mid-teens and the Greens continue to crest double digits--sure, eMay's LNC byelection run (and the NDP's 4th-place shellacking) was a unique circumstance, but it seems to have left its honeymoonish aftereffect on the last provincial election results. How much of that can an actual NDP incumbent in London deflect? Finally, the most banal foundation for third-place-incumbent potential: both Liberals and Conservatives are viable here...
	07 12 28	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 69.157.169.14
Every time we hear someone predicting the demise of an MP based on something foolish that was said or done, we can't help but think of one particular line of dialogue uttered by Cruella DeVile in the movie 101 Dalmations. In it she says, ‘Hang the papers! It'll be forgotten tomorrow!’ Too true and this can be applied to the Mathyssen naughty photo fiasco. By the time an election has rolled around it'll have been forgotten. If it becomes a focus of the local election campaign, then you can be sure that the voters will be quite irritated and it would probably damage any candidate that dwells on the issue. No, this riding is up for grabs, not because of the recent blunder but because of the diverse voting pattern that already existed. This gaff my hurt Mathyssen a little but we're not saying it'll be the cause of her downfall (or even a major factor). Wait until the election is called and we can see how the parties are doing overall before anyone can reasonably make a prediction here.
	07 12 22	binriso 156.34.226.67
Probably Liberal, they have a good candidate but they did last time too and he lost by about 900 votes. Mathyssen’s comments about James Moore are going to hurt her obviously (it looks bad, and image is everything in politics). One other point: On other websites I’ve seen the CPC vote total 12100 or so but here its 13495. I dunno which is right. 3 way race for sure here, probably only 3 or 4000 votes separating 1st and 3rd.
	07 12 06	BJ 64.114.124.161
It seems that Mathyssen's only accomplishment as an MP has been the parliamentary laptop snoop. With those national credentials and the embarrassment it has likely caused her constituents, this riding is now up for grabs.
	07 12 06	SCW 129.100.145.126
Mathyssen has been all but invisible as a rookie MP until she was valted onto the national stage for falsely accusing another MP of 'looking at Porn' on his lap top. Given how close this vote was last time out, I think this incident has sunk her chances of being re-elected. The last past provincial election result (NDP came in third) demonstrated that the NDP brand in this riding is not what put Irene over the top last time...it was her personal likeability. I doubt she'll have that to bank on next time out. I'm convinced this riding will now flip back Liberal - popular local radio host Jackie Gauthier will squeeze past the unknown Conservative candidate and the newly disgraced Irene Mathyssen.
	07 12 03	seasaw 99.225.19.235
Liberal gain. Whenever there's an incumbent Tory government, as there is now, and there is a close election race, as we will probably have this time, most NDP held ridings, such as this one, tend to go to the Liberals, and I don't think this one'll be an exception.
	07 10 15	T.V. 209.202.78.177
Mathyssen barely won, the NDP vote is down, and the Liberals are going to throw everything but the kitchen sink at taking this back. Incumbency will help her, but she was already pretty high profile.
	07 07 29	Bettle Bailey 129.100.242.173
The next election will be the first time in years that there will be no Liberal incumbent government during the campaign. This will result in at least 1000-1500 vote swing between liberal/conservative. Another point this riding is getting richer with the huge new homes being built in the eartern part of the riding, and we know these people will never vote NDP. Finally the greens will improve because people are naive, and dont realized that this will de-elect NDPs across the country. This is going to be a squeaker, and with the incumbent CPC govt. predition CPC 32, NDP 31, LIB 29, GREEN 8
	07 05 13	A.S. 74.99.222.209
They did it, they actually did it. Who'd have imagined, a generation ago, than a fed Dipper Ontario caucus-of-a-dozen would include a London seat in its ranks? Irene Mathyssen stands as proof that if you try often enough, sooner or later you might make it--but let's get real; she still only holds a 34.5% share, and less than 6 points separate the three major parties (and in the advance polls, the Tories won and NDP came third). And sure, victory/incumbency may hypothetically now ‘validate’ the NDP in London-Fanshawe; but Elizabeth May subsequently collapsed that hypothesis in LNC next door. So while Mathyssen now holds the advantage, as long as the NDP flirts with below-'06 polling levels and retains a chronic ‘third party’ stigma, don't overestimate said advantage--but don't blame her, necessarily, if she loses; though that might now hinge less on a broad NDP collapse (remember that the LNC byelection was a unique situation) than on the anti-NDP forces galvanizing around a single party. Indeed, there's an exceptionally odd possibility that the only NDP seat in London proper might turn into the only CPC seat in London proper...
	07 04 27	J Adams 67.158.79.248
Can't say Katz brings a whole lot to the table. He's a hardworker and understands the political game but he's new to London and the association doesn't have a lot of funds. Gotta stick with Irene to repeat despite sagging NDP fortunes.
	07 04 16	JP 74.110.20.239
The NDP is virtually assured of winning this seat. The Liberals have a lot of wannabes, but most of them are yesterday's news. Having a recognizable name like Corrigan or White or Chaabar will hurt their chances more than help.
	07 04 16	Peter L Ferguson 129.100.60.24
Irene Mathyssen is a strong incumbent facing rookie candidates from the other parties. She is a well known and well liked MP throughout all of the City of London. I predict Irene will win by bigger margin than in the previous election.
	07 04 15	S. Lewis 70.53.108.51
The competition? The Conservative candidate has only been a Londoner for a few months and given the recent history of 3rd place finishes here, isn't likely to even match Mailer's vote total. The Liberals have a big field of candidates, but keep in mind three are recently failed municipal candidates, if you cannot win a Ward, you aren't likely going to win a whole riding. The other candidates are political rookies, unlikely to convince voters that the Liberals deserve their vote. Liberals in London are should probably be more concerned with holding the seats they have. MP Sue Barnes was in trouble last time, and the Conservatives have an even strong chance of defeating her this time. MP Glen Pearson is new, and without the Elizabeth May and Diane Haskett factors, votes are likely to shift back to both the Conservatives and NDP.
	07 04 07	Elmer Smith 64.231.126.239
While the Libs haven't picked a federal candidate, I can see this election being of benefit to them. While many in the riding tout Mathyseen's likeability and persistence, there are many in the riding who also dislike her for her consistent search for attention with the national media. As well, with many automotive job worries, and many of the auto plants in the riding being affected through reduced shifts, I can see Mathyseen going to defeat. However, it depends on who the Libs put on the block. Mailer, in the last election, was a lame duck candidate who seemed to only follow Harper talking points and seemed to lack the common touch with voters (coming off as a creepy man). Pearson, while a good stand-up candidate, is now in LNC, which leaves L-F looking for a candidate. THe logic was that both the CPC and Libs would look to women to get the job done of taking down Irene. Yet, the CPC chose Jordan Katz, who ran last election in Windsor, and seems to have little links to London. This one's too close to call.