08 03 20	Stevo 70.53.78.2
Well, Peg Leg, as I've addressed in several other riding threads, 'Urban Canada' constitutes more than just Toronto, Montreal, and Vancouver, and outside the three largeset municipalities, the Conservatives are doing just fine. I don't quite see what makes Justin Trudeau qualified to be party leader or Prime Minister. A leadership run on his part would be based on nostalgia and the requisite mentioning of his father's Constitution patriation approximately every 7 minutes. He would pull in support in areas where the Liberals are ALREADY strong (Toronto, Atlantic Canada, anglo-Montreal), meaning that Toronto-Centre, for instance, will go 80% Liberal instead of 60%, but they certainly won't eat in to any Conservative strongholds. I hope Justin enjoys his time as a Liberal Opposition backbencher, because I doubt there will be anything more in store for him.
	08 03 03	Peg Leg Pete 99.234.197.75
Even when he's picking a Liberal to win, Conservative Stevo can't help taking a shot. I think there's a chance Trudeau will end up being the next leader of the Liberal Party. Can he become PM with as Stevo says ‘without a single vote in Francophone Quebec or Western Canada’? What Stevo doesn't recognize is that we aren't going to get a majority government again in this country for a very long time. Rural Canadians want a hard line, right wing government like the one Harper leads. Urban Canadians want a left of centre, progressive government and tend to vote Liberal. Then there's 45 seats in Quebec where the people elect Block MPs. Everyone is very dug in and the result is the next election will be fought in a hand full of seats. The only ridings up for grabs next time are the one in Newfoudland where Danny William is out to destroy Harper, a few in the suburbs of Montreal, mid-sized cities in Ontario like Peterborough, London and St. Catharines and the suburbs of Vancouver. So, can the Conservatives win another minority without any seats in urban Canada? The answer is yes. Can the Liberals win a minority without any seats in rural Canada? The answer there is also yes. So Stevo's idea that Trudeau can't become PM really doesn't make sense when you look at Canada in the 21st century. I predict Trudeau wins by 3000 votes here as people will see him as a possible PM.
	08 02 03	A.S. 99.233.96.153
I'll hedge, because Vivien Barbot's got a bit of that Peggy Nash-ish ‘if it weren't for the opponent, she'd have earned her way to reelection’ thing going. On the other hand, Mr. Sophie Gregoire is, well, he is who he is. Perhaps he's to the federal Grits what Lisette Lapointe was to the Parti Quebecois in '07, i.e. just the kind of candidate to push against disastrous cross-winds...
	08 01 13	Stevo 70.53.78.210
Not sure how Justin Trudeau will become PM without a single vote in francophone Quebec or Western Canada, but his disciples certainly are confident, I'll give them that. He will indeed win here in a walk although you can bet Mr. Dion's advisors will do their best to keep him quiet and out of the spotlight.
	07 12 23	I'm Always Right 69.49.33.79
Justin Trudeau will win this seat in a walk. Voters in Papineau know that after Lame Duck Dion resigns on election night, the son of PET will be a leading candidate to take over the Liberal party. I say Trudeau wins this seat by 10,000 votes and is the next leader of the federal party. You heard it hear first! Papineau will be the home riding of the next Canadian PM.
	07 11 07	Jake 142.157.75.43
Perhaps if the Liberals were in power, Trudeau could win based on his campaign of looks and his father's legacy. However, for a candidate who had a very tough nomination battle, his current strategy will not be enough. He needs to come up with policy appeal, not just a smile and a picture of his father with the Charter of Rights and Freedoms. Last time around the Bloc was able to defeat a high-profile Cabinet Minister. This time around, if they win it will be because Trudeau has very little to offer and a good campaign. If Trudeau wins, it'll be because he brought some intelligence to his campaign or because the Bloc is slowly vanishing into obscurity. The way things are headed, he'd sooner win due to weakening Bloc Quebecois than an intelligent campaign.
	07 10 05	Paul Tremblay 24.37.30.198
I don't buy the notion that the name Trudeau will be an handicap in a multicultural riding like Papineau. His real problem is that he is not his father. He is not as brilliant and charismatic as his father was. Vivian Barbot is very popular with Haitians... but she does not appear to be that popular with other voters. Liberals will win here if they appear to be winning the election nationally; otherwise the Bloc will keep this riding.
	07 07 18	binriso 156.34.212.139
Trudeau has a lock on this one. Bloc barely won in 06 and were well below 50% so there’s definitely lots of room for a Liberal win and it probably won’t be very close either. The BQ win was the first Liberal loss in 57 years but it will go down as simply a loss because of the sponsorship scandal and Papineau will come back to the Liberals next time by 10%.
	07 06 25	M.C. 24.122.220.230
Pas si vite!!! Viviane Barbot du Bloc Qu?b?cois n'a ?t? ?lue que par environ 900 voix de majorit? sur Pierre Pettigrew. Justin Trudeau est peut-?tre le candidat controvers? mais il a du charisme et une vision qui m'apparait int?ressante. De plus, Elsie Lefebvre du PQ a ?t? battue le 26 mars dernier par Gerry Sklavounos du Parti Lib?ral du Qu?bec avec un peu plus de 1000 voix de majorit?. Donc, Trudeau a de bonnes chances de l'emporter dans cette circonscription.
	07 06 19	70.55.123.189
Maintenant qu'on sait que le candidat libéral est Justin Trudeau, Vivian Barbot sera réélue. Les gens ne veulent plus retourner dans l'ère trudeauiste qui nie la nation québécoise et le déséquilibre fiscal. C'est pour cela que les citoyen(ne)s de Papineau feront un vote stratégique et garderont le Bloc. De plus, madame Barbot est très appréciée et a le soutien de la communauté haïtienne, étant elle-même de cette nationalité. Victoire assurée du Bloc!
	07 04 28	Daniel 156.34.83.53
Whoa whoa, hold the phone, everyone - according to the buzz, Justin Trudeau isn't even assured of being NOMINATED in this riding, much less winning it. In fact, the Libs probably have a better chance here with one of the local candidates in the nomination race rather than Trudeau. If we go by the polling numbers, the Liberals *should* be able to re-take this riding, but Vivian Barbot is more formidable than they would like to believe.
	07 04 08	Stevo 74.102.113.20
While I'm not so sure that Stéphane Dion was particularly pleased when Justin decided to dump the Trudeau name into Dion's campaign team (can you just picture this guy going through francophone Quebec and western Canada drumming up support for a return to his father's socialist, centralist vision??), I have to agree that he is far too much of a Montreal celebrity to lose this one. Welcome to Ottawa, Monsieur Trudeau. Good thing for Belinda, since Justin is one of the few people to make her seem gravitas-enriched by comparison.
	07 04 07	Stéphane Gaudet 70.83.98.126
Tout dépend de qui sera le candidat libéral. Si Trudeau gagnait l'investiture (ce qui est loin d'être fait), je prédis une victoire bloquiste et la réélection de Vivian Barbot. Le simple nom TRUDEAU a un effet REPOUSSOIR au Québec. Stéphane Dion le sait, pas pour rien qu'il ne veut pas de Justin ! Si par contre un libéral plus acceptable gagnait l'investiture, il pourrait reprendre ce siège, qui est ‘naturellement’ libéral et pas du tout bloquiste.
	07 04 03	P.P. 70.82.50.99
I feel that, in these days of fédéralisme d’ouverture that Mr. Trudeau will be more of a burden than an asset to the Liberals. If he is the liberal candidate, Vivian Barbot will keep this seat for the Bloc. Otherwise, i see this as a too close to call. Just look at the Laurier_Dorion results at the provincial level. The P.Q. candidate lost a close race. The most liberal part of that provincial riding is not part of the federal riding
	07 03 27	Dr Bear & Prof Ape 70.53.96.30
With the sponsorship scandal all but forgotten, the seperatists in disarray after the provincial losses, Dion's popularity on his home soil, Liberal's rebounding in Montreal and most of all a Trudeau running (have you ever heard this guy speak?), the Liberals will make short work of Barbot and the BQ. This will not be close (okay, we're not talking Mount Royal numbers, but still...).
	07 03 26	Smok Wawelski 69.159.68.252
I believe that this riding was not so much won by Viviane Barbot, as it was lost by Pierre Pettigrew, who whittled away Liberal pluralities of over 20 000 in the Andre Ouellette days down to 400 votes, and then finally blowing it completely. Justin Trudeau will easily reclaim this one for the Liberals. He's actually been out there knocking on doors, and that will make a big difference.
	07 03 24	RF 74.120.155.163
Vivian Barbot is a popular incumbent, but Trudeau is a popular newcomer. If the Liberals continue to rise and the Bloc continues to fall, this seat will easily go Liberal. I have a feeling that once an election starts, however, the Liberal support might melt away, considering Stephane Dion's lack of popularity in the province. Nonetheless, for now it is definitely too close to call.
	07 03 21	M. Lunn 74.99.130.109
Justin Trudeau does have somewhat of a celebrity icon status, although unlike Ontario and Atlantic Canada where his father is still loved, his father isn't so well liked in Quebec, although not hated to the same degree as in Alberta. Still either way I expect this to be close, however since Dion is reasonably popular in Quebec, I would guess it would go Liberal.
	07 03 20	Brian Appel 69.70.112.147
I don't live in this riding, but just can't see Justin Trudeau losing here. He's a celebrity in Canadian politics, and Papineau used to be one of the safest Liberal ridings in the country. Trudeau pick-up.