Prediction Changed
11:45 AM 03/04/2007

Election Prediction Project
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Charlottetown
Federal Election - 2007



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
TBA

Incumbent:
Hon. Shawn Murphy

2006 Result:
Shawn Murphy **
9586
Tom DeBlois
6524
Brian Pollard
2126
David Lobie Daughton
586
Andrew J. Chisholm
193
Baird Judson
97

Previous Prediction/result
06 Prediction/04 Result
04 Prediction/00 Result




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08 01 12 A.S.
99.233.96.153
The one PEI seat where NDP's had a chance, even (in 1997) over PC; but with Dody Crane no longer running, the Dippers reverted to 11% also-ran status in '06 (and, all things considered, could now easily be headed for 4th vs the Greens). Unless CPC re-PCs itself as a Maritime Urban Red Tory sort of party, Shawn Graham's a cinch for reelection.
07 10 07 Nick J Boragina
74.14.23.192
I'm going to change my prediction here. For now. Harper is a lot less scary then he used to be, but despite that, we are not seeing any swing to the CPC. In the Atlantic poll after poll shows the Liberals still have the edge. While I still maintain that this will be the first riding to tip to the Tories should they win a seat on the Island, I think that for now at least, it’s a safe Liberal seat.
07 04 02 Nick J Boragina
74.99.228.118
The Liberals have done well in PEI for a reason, they are moderate. The tories are far more right-wing, but also far more regional and pro-western. All of that has a major effect in the rural areas of the province, but here in Charlottetown (where I lived for a number of years) things are a little more 'selfish'. If any riding on the island is going tory blue it is this one. Historically this is actually a conservative riding, and with the tories in government the chances are up of a win here. That being said, its far from clear. I'm still leaning towards the Liberals winning, but a tory win is not out of the question.



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