11:54 PM 20/12/2005

Prediction Changed
12:52 AM 04/05/2005
Election Prediction Project

Calgary Centre
Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Canadian Action
Trevor Grover
John N. Johnson
Heesung Kim
Brian Pincott
Lee Richardson

Lee Richardson

2004 Result:
Lee Richardson
Julia Turnbull
Phillip K. Liesemer
Keith Purdy
Trevor Grover

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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20 12 05
I agree if this was in another city this would be a safe riding for the Liberal Party; or a hotly contested riding between the Liberals and the NDP. But this is Calgary and it's a safe conservative seat. But don't be surprised that the Liberals make gains here. Most people do not differentiate between the provincial party and the federal party; Need I remind you that the only time the Provincial Liberals disappeared from the Legislature was during the Trudeau years at that time they were replaced originally by the PC Party (in the last years of Social Credit) then by the NDP (against the PC Party). So some of the success of the provincial party will definitely translate into success for the Federal Liberals, just like how the Trudeau Liberals hurt the Provincial Liberals.
Another reason why the Federal Liberals could make gains (not seats) in this area is that Mount Royal College's main campus is in Lincoln Park, which is within the riding and many of people living here are Mount Royal Students. Klein's policies are very unpopular amongst the students; the Mount Royal Students Association actively campaigned against the Klein government (although not offically, as it was said), and most Mount Royal students want to see Mount Royal become a university but Klein has said on numerous occasions that he would rather put one in the rural areas. Combine all this with the fact that most Mount Royal students who live in this area are from other provinces and generally lean Liberal anyways. So for these reasons the Liberal will make gains.
The last time the Federal Liberals came close to wining a riding in Calgary was the 1993 election. At that time the Provincial Liberals were strong, and were poised to win the election; much of which had to do with Don Getty being very unpopular and a very popular Liberal leader Lawrence Décore, the reason why the Tories won that election was Klein own personal popularity soared and that allowed the Tories to slide through. Now the Provincial Liberals have Kevin Taft at the helms, and his own personal popularity is comparable to that of Décores.
Klein own personal unpopularity would definitely hurt the Federal Conservatives in this area, but not enough for them to lose this seat or even come close to losing. But what will be interesting is to see what would happen once Klein leaves, since with this departure will also be the departure of a Charismatic leader. Klein charisma many times over shadows his policies, but with his departure there would be little to defend the policies, which he has put in place. If the provincial Tories under a new leader keep going in the same direction there is a good chance that the Provincial Liberals could sweep the central ridings in Calgary and maybe even win one or two in the suburbs. I would be interesting to see how that would effect the Federal balance here in Central Calgary.
11 12 05 Anon
This may be an inner city riding but its composition is basically conservative (especially in the South and West of the riding). That fact, combined with a weak liberal candidate, will mean a stronger Tory showing this election than last.
16 07 05 hatman
Perhaps a more Liberalish riding in Calgary. But like Pellaken said, this guy was a former PCer. He never was a member of the Reform or Canadian Alliance Parties- at least in the House of Commons. He doesn't have to worry about the anti-reform vote- not like that actually exists in Calgary. This will be a pretty safe keep for the Conservatives come election time.
10 05 05 Nick Boragina
Richardson was a PC MP in 1988, who was defeated by the Reform Party in 1993. He's a former cabinet minister (parliamentary secretary anyway) to boot. He'd do well as a Liberal, as a Conservative, he will win without a doubt.
02 05 05 Miles Lunn
In any other city, this would be a safe liberal riding. But this is Calgary, so the Conservatives will easily win this again. For those who point to the fact the liberals won three ridings provincially, I should remind them the Alberta Liberals are not under investigation for a major scandal and many people voted liberal provincially simply because they feel Ralph Klein has overstayed his welcome. In 2001, the Provincial PCs got above 50% in all Calgary ridings. As for Joe Clark winning this riding in 2000, the boundaries were much different and had the current boundaries been used, the Canadian Alliance would have taken this riding in 2000. Besides the Provincial PCs won Calgary-Buffalo which is the least conservative part of Calgary.

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