2:18 AM 19/01/2006

Prediction Changed
2:07 AM 22/01/2006
Election Prediction Project

Federal Election - 2006

Constituency Profile

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Christian Heritage
Anthony Eric Barendregt
Bruce Benson
James Bezan
Duncan E. Geisler
Thomas Alexander Goodman
Ed Schreyer

James Bezan

2004 Result:
James Bezan
Duane Nicol
Bruce Benson
Trevor Farley
Anthony Barendregt

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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18 01 06 pax vobiscum
Pat Martin's campaign is so confident that they are helping out the Schreyer team. This shows that the NDP are confident they can win this riding. The extra help also improves their odds. Martin has a great staff who held off a serious challenge from David Northcott last election. It might be just the boost the NDP need in this riding.
18 01 06 Lex D.
The Schreyer name is magic in these parts, but it should not be forgotton that Ed's son Jason tried to win the riding for the NDP in the 1993 meltdown election and lost by 4,000 votes to an unspectacular Liberal. There's no way that Bezan looses this one, especially with the Conservatives doing so well nationally.
17 01 06 ANPC
Y'know, for a Local Boy I'd say you're not really in touch with your own riding. As I've said before, the NDP's provincial success has just about ZERO to do with the federal campaign. It's true that Selkirk would elect a ham sandwich provincially and Interlake and Gimli are both held by NDPers, but Doer's NDP and Layton's NDP are two completely different parties. As I've also said before, Doer's NDP is WAY more centrist than Layton's. This tends to be the case a lot provincially, especially in Western Canada. That's why we see provincial NDPers running for the Liberals, not the federal NDP.
Sure, the Freep (aka the "Elect Ed Schreyer so we can have something to write about newspaper") noted that Schreyer is gaining steam, but the numbers don't lie. Bezan has remained at the polling levels he took in 2004. And yes, the Liberal campaign is collapsing. But is 95 per cent of the Liberal vote going to the NDP? That's what the Dippers need to win, and that's obviously not realistic. Failing to see any support trending up for Schreyer (ie through multiple polls NOT done by each campaign), it's really hard to say "Schreyer's building steam." Signs don't vote, and if you head outside the 50 km surrounding Selkirk you'll see a lot of blue and not so much orange.
And, as a bonus, people are still ticked about C-68. Like it or not, people see NDP and think "pro gun control" and that will hurt Ed.
Time to call this for the Tories.
13 01 06 John Doe
This should be chalked up in the Conservative column by now. Bezan had a big margin last time, the national campaign is booming, and this is rural Manitoba. Schreyer's profile made it a bit interesting, but really, it's been decades since he had any influence. It's not like he has a major, well oiled machine in place from his previous years, he's not winning this.
12 01 05 R.O.
At the all candidates' forum on the west side of the riding. There were more questions about gun control than anything else. Seems to be the entire conservative platform (or at least the one they've flogged for the passed few elections to get them into power in this riding). Mr. Bezan continually pointed the finger at the NDP for supporting this initiative.
10 01 06 Local Boy
I'm not sure that I agree that the riding is becoming more conservative. In the past provincial election the NDP captured Gimli with a very large majority. The west-side saw a very large jump in support (although it is still represented by the PC's). Selkirk, which is strong for the ndp captured an even larger share of the vote. Interlake did the same. Only the east side saw a small increase in PC vote. For the record, I'm seeing more NDP signs in the rural areas then ever. It looks as if both the CPC and the NDP are going for broke with their efforts. But as the Winnipeg Free Press noted, the Schreyer Campaign seems to have a lot of steam. This is going to be a close NDP victory.
09 01 06 Brian J
This one will stay in the Conservative fold. The Free Press poll was quite a large sample size for one riding, and it showed the Tories solidly holding their vote from the last election. The only votes going to the NDP are Liberal votes. This area has grown considerably more small c conservative over the last decade, provincially and federally. Gun registration is still a huge issue - Layton doesn't play well in this riding. As mentioned before - with Blaikie as leader, the NDP would have a real shot at this riding.
08 01 06
Polling in Selkirk Interlake has never been accurate due to the large Aboriginal population. An entire population that has historically not voted Conservative. With that, regional differences and the margin of error I would call it a dead heat. The NDP have always been stronger organizationally on the ground than the Tories - advantage Schreyer.
08 01 06 MM
Just read the Winnipeg Free Press article on this riding, and the latest poll puts the NDP 10% behind the Conservatives, with a 4.8% margin of error. If accurate, the results do show a 50% increase in support for the NDP since the last election, entirely due to support moving from the Liberals.
Importantly, the numbers show that among the old, NDP are WAY ahead and among the very young, CONS are in a big lead. Given the turnout among those groups and that the poll averages out the numbers - this is closer than the poll suggests. (Seniors are far more likely to vote than youth, yet the poll methodology balances the responses from various demographic groups to reflect the population).
So, for those who live in the riding, the question is: which campaign has the organization and troops to get their votes out on election day? If you know, submit it. Until we know those details, I'm for keeping this one in Too-Close-To-Call to the bitter end.
07 01 06 M.T.
When Schreyer announced his candidacy here, I said that the race was too close to call for the moment. After reading the results of a local poll in the Free Press today, I would suggest that the riding could be safely called for the Tories, as it was before Schreyer entered the race. Bezan has a 10% lead in voter intention right now over Schreyer; in fact, the Conservatives have almost as much support as the Liberals and NDP together.
I agree with other posters who suggest a difference between the "traditional NDP" with its prairie roots, and the NDP of today led by an MP from Toronto. The Reform Party/Alliance and the NDP traditionally have appealed to similar interests in the West. This time the Tories have most of that support, and there is not quite the same drive for NDP-Liberal voters to vote defensively against the Tories as there is in Ontario.
CPC 46% NDP 39% LIB 9% Green 6%.
06 01 06 B.J.L.
I think the Right Honorable Edward Schreyer should make it. Many seem to question, "Why this riding?". The answer is easy... His "roots" are deep in Selkirk-Interlake, very, very deep! Perhaps his roots are deeper with these boundaries than in any other contest he has been in.
Ed's father's side of the family immigrated to the area north of Beasejour over 100 years ago. That's well into the east side of the riding. Mr. Schreyer's mother's family homesteaded about the same time in the Camp Morton/Gimli area in the North end of the riding. So both sides of his family have been established in the riding for over 100 years. Ed himself lives on the very south edge of the riding and if the boundaries were to change "again" he might easily be "in" the riding. One cannot move their home every time riding boundaries change. He lives in fact, closer to the center (Selkirk) than most people in the riding who are outside the city of Selkirk. Add to that the fact that he did represent Selkirk (which is the center of the riding) at one time, albeit a long time ago, and it is easy to see that he has the whole riding covered. So much for the history / geography lesson.
The point here is that not only is he very well known for his high-profile accomplishments, but he is equally known very widely in the riding personally.
I happened into his nomination meeting and was amazed at the crowd that had gathered that night with only a couple of days notice and all the legit lawn sigs ("counters" in yards, not boulevards). His speech was not covered by the media, but was one of the most honest, stirring, balanced, and "straight to the point" talks I have heard in a long time. I say balanced because he even had a few good things to say about renowned Conservatives like Diefenbaker and Roblin - much to the wonderment of the partisan crowd.
So I think he will win, not by a landslide, however, if there were to be any all candidate meetings (and I don't know if there are) I think I would predict a landslide for him.
06 01 06 M. Lunn
I am moving this back to the Tories. Despite Jack Layton's efforts in the Prairie provinces, it doesn't seem to be gaining much traction so beyond the few close ridings in Saskatchewan, I don't think he will pick up many seats elsewhere. It will be closer due to Ed Schreyer's star candidacy, but James Bezan will still win. This is more of a traditional CCF riding than a modern day downtown Toronto type riding, which rightly or wrongly many people see the NDP as. If Bill Blaikie had been leader this might have been winneable since he is more of the former CCF type.
05 01 06 Fabian B
Some groups like the Monarchist League of Canada have complained that a Ed Schreyer, as a former Governor General of Canada, shouldn't run in an Election. Personally, I share the same general opinion but since Mr. Schreyer has always been an NDP politician and long ago retired as GG in 1986, most people(, I doubt, would hold this against him. It is surprising, however, that Ed chose this huge and largely unwinnable rural riding over another rural riding with stronger NDP roots like Churchill. I doubt most of voters of Selkirk-Interlake will support the NDP.
I foresee a solid Conservative win here.
02 01 06 Roz
I agree with the 20 something, I'm under 45 and so are most of my friends and we all know who Ed Schreyer is! a very large poplulation on First Nations that The Right Honourable Ed Schreyer did a lot for in the past, as well as every other community beyond to the north. Ed Schreyer.. who is he.. life long member of the National Farmer's Union (soooo he knows a little about agriculture). Premier speaker on Energy programs (World Wide). Holds more degrees than most people would dream about.... Oh and the thing on homosexuality... Geez isn't it the Conservative party that is so bent out of shape about same sex marriage ... and didn't you just get rid of leader who thought dinosaurs walked the earth a 1000 yrs ago!!! So quite casting stones, 'cause your stones fall a little closer than 20 yrs ago.
28 12 05 Matt
It's kind of dumb to say that Ed will lose because of the comments on homosexuality 20 years ago. Look at Tommy Douglas. He is the Greatest Canadian and yet he said that homosexuality was an affliction. That doesn't mean he isn't a great person. It was 20 years ago. Things change over that time.
27 12 05 Local Boy
First of all the boundaries are different so comparing with Pawley's loss doesn't really work - not to mention the fact that the NDP had just been decimated in the provincial election because they were super-unpopular. As for Schreyer not having support from young people, well that doesn't matter cause young people aren't voting. Which is a shame don't get me wrong, as a twenty-something I think we are doing ourselves a great disservice, however it purely crass political terms, the NDP candidate has the same chances as the Liberal or Conservative. With less then 24% of the youth under 25 voting - they have very little impact on the out come of the vote. Look at the demographics of the riding. Relatively older when compared to urban areas. Rural communities are losing their young people leaving only the older folk. Gimli is a retirement community for the most part. Lots of people remember Schreyer, and lots of people remember what their parents thought of Schreyer. I agree it's not a slam-dunk for the Dippers, however I think that Mr. Schreyer will get the nod from the people of Selkirk-Interlake.
27 12 05 Victor A.
Of course, in order to win Ed has to do door-knocking and actively campaign. Given the fact that the NDP is targeting this riding, I do think a lot of volunteers will help him do just that. Secondly, Ed's more centrist positions on social issues can only be an advantage in a riding like this. James Bezan, on the other hand, is one of these Conservative MPs I know little about, he just doesn't stand out at all and I rarely saw him speak in the House of Commons. Expect Schreyer to take a large percentage of the Liberal votes ( PLC should come distant third here ) as well as an important percentage of the Conservative votes. Of course, some people could compare Schreyer's campaign to Father McGrath's failed campaign in Newfoundland and Labrador in 2004, but keep in mind Manitoba is a province where the NDP has deep roots, is currently in power and as some pundits say it was very competitive in this riding as recently as 1997 therefore I don't see a reason why Ed wouldn't pick it up.
26 12 05 Political Junkie
I think it is a little premature for people to start calling this one for the NDP. There are factors that are both positive and negative for the NDP that make this one hard to call. On the positive side, there is a base of NDP votes to build on, and a second place status from 2004. The NDP narrowly lost this riding in 1997, in a very close Reform/Liberal/NDP battle. And Ed Schreyer is a "star candidate" of sorts. However, that's where the positive factors end. While Schreyer has a strong record, we must remember that that record is almost thirty years old. Anyone in the riding who is under 45 was not even of voting age when the Schreyer NDP regime ended. Therefore, he only has name recognition either for people over 40 or so or political history buffs. Also, Schreyer isn't the only former Manitoba NDP Premier to have run in Selkirk-Interlake in the past. Howard Pawley ran here in 1988, and lost to the Tories by over 3,000 votes. Pawley was a far more contemporary figure when he ran then Schreyer was (of course, maybe that explains Pawley's loss). And of course, how will Schreyer's past comments on homosexuality play out in this riding, particularly among younger voters? Will social progressives consider these comments irrelevant, having been made almost twenty years ago, and understand that Schreyer is bound by NDP policy to back Same-Sex Marriage, or will they be turned off and wary of him, and vote Liberal or Green? And does any of this matter in rural Manitoba? Either way, this riding will either be Tory by a good margin (closer than 2004) or NDP by the narrowest of margins (less than 5%). Too close to call.
25 12 05 Local Boy
It's not that long of a shot. The Liberal campaign is totally non-existent. Expect their vote to totally collapse - sending at least 85% of it to the NDP (if they were blue liberals, they'd have switched last election). Much of the Conservative vote in this riding is based on the support taken from the NDP via the Reform party. Expect much of that to return to Schreyer, not so much the "NDP" but Schreyer. I agree that the NDP platform plays better in downtown Toronto then it does Main Street Arborg, however Schreyer has drawn more media attention to rural issues in his first week of campaigning then any of the national parties in total. His no B.S. reputation will play well in the coffee shops of this riding, and his recent media interactions have proved that it's more than a reputation. While the eastern based media want to nail him on Same-Sex Marriage, he's taking about the Wheat Board and shrinking rural communities. I don't think anyone can argue that he's not going to a major player if sent back to Ottawa. It's not going to be a cake walk for the man - I don't care who you are 8,000 votes is nothing to sneeze at.
As for the comparisons to Broadbent, yes the man was popular; however I would argue that - relatively speaking, Broadbent’s popularity in a riding in which he never represented is small potatoes to Schreyer’s in Selkirk-Interlake. He's is literally a legend here. Even big-time Tory’s have publicly stated that they will be supporting him. This will easily been the most exciting race in the West. Expect a close NDP victory.
23 12 05 Aric H
I'm not sure what will happen here. I notice that some people are comparing the two Ed's - Schreyer and Broadbent. I suspect that Broadbent had more ability to connect with voters in his successful comeback last year than Schreyer does and so I think it will be a bit more challenging to win this riding than it was for Broadbent in Ottawa Centre. It's not a sure thing yet.
22 12 05 AH
Even the NDP candidate says it is a long shot, and is really just running to help out the party and air a few grievances he has with the world. He seemed to wait to make his decision to run until the NDP got some momentum, seemingly a fairweather candidate. Although Layton's health care fiasco has brought the NDP back to amateur hour again when it comes to being relevant.
21 12 05 A.S.
The problem w/the Schreyer=Broadbent theory is that, like it or not, Ottawa Centre's more reflective of where the NDP is at *today*, and would have been so even without Ed Broadbent in the running. If this were more like earlier, more "urban" incarnations of the Selkirk riding, it'd be Schreyer in a walk--indeed, he might have been better off gunning for Joy Smith in Kildonan-St Paul. Now--well, it's *possible*, though more as a one-off than as something with rural-Manitoba (or even rural-Saskatchewan) coattails. I mean, if it were that easy, then Lorne Nystrom might as well try for Yorkton-Melville once again...
19 12 05 PB
I disagree with those posters who say Tory voters won't switch to the NDP. The bottom line on Schreyer is that he has credibility and commands a level of respect that goes beyond party politics. Look at how Ed Broadbent won Ottawa Centre last time. It was not because Liberals flocked to him, it was because traditional conservative voters came over to a candidate that they could enthusiastically support. I expect the same dynamic will be at play here. Still, 8,000 votes is a large gap and I will refrain from making a prediction until I hear more about what's going on around the riding. But voting conservative in 2004 will not stop people from voting NDP in 2006, if the NDP candidate is somebody people know and respect.
19 12 05 BA
Just as a correction to the earlier post from Old Manitoban...Beausejour is most definitely in Selkirk-Interlake. That being said I would agree that this riding is still to close to call at best.
18 12 05 Proud Selkirkian
Although held by the Tories this is not a riding that has a problem voting orange. Schreyer will be the one to support for voters who do not support the Conservatives. Expect the collapse of the Libs and a close 2 way race with Schreyer taking Torie votes away in his home town of Beausejour and narrowing the gap in the the Northend of the riding.
18 12 05 quasar
I know it's nearing Christmas, but this riding won't be under NDP's tree. Let's analyse the results from 2004: The Conservative won with 18 727, which is about 8000 more votes than the NDP candidate. I just don't see the NDP winning here! Tory votes will not leak to the NDP, some Liberal votes will stay Liberal and leak to both the Tories and the NDP, and I expect the Green vote to increase here. If ALL the Liberal and Green votes from last election went to the NDP, they squeak a win with 20 557 votes. However, it is highly unlikely all the Green and Liberal votes will go NDP. Conservative hold.
17 12 05 Old Manitoban
I think people need to slow down just a little. Ed Schreyer last held elective office in Manitoba 28 years ago. Before that he was the MLA for Rossmere for 10 years which is not part of Selkirk Interlake. He won in his last shot in that riding by 500 or so votes and his party lost to the Tories in that election by 10% or so which in Manitoba terms is just about a landslide. He is originally from Beausejour which is not part of Selkirk Interlake and, while he was MP of Selkirk for all of one year, that was 38 years ago. And since you needed to be 21 in those days to vote that means that no one under the age of 60 in the riding will have ever actually cast a vote for the man. Now Ed Schreyer is a 70 year old man of accomplishment of whom all Canadians and Manitobans can be proud. While I agree his candidacy may make the riding too close to call he is a long way from home free. In fact I will go out on a limb and say this will stay Tory blue.
17 12 05 Greg P
This is going to be a tight race for the remaining weeks in the election. Expect the NDP to focus hard as this may now be their most likely pickup on the Praries. Expect the Conservatives to throw some assistance here, likely in the form of visits from Pallister and Toews.
This may have become the race to watch in Manitoba, if not the prairies.
16 12 05 Doug
Mr Schreyers remarks regarding homosexuality being abnormal and a risk to younger generations just tells me he's from another era.
16 12 05 Larry M
In 1987 Schreyer called homosexuality an "affliction" and an "abnormal tendency," and declared: "If allowed to become too visible in society, [homosexuality] cannot help but have a negative and detrimental effect on the younger generation."
This guy is way out of touch and too scarry for me
16 12 05 Tory Insider
Nice to see all the Schreyer cheerleaders out in full force. Ed is like a boxer that has taken one too many punches. He feels he still has it in him to make a "Broadbent" like comeback. Well, he's had his day in the sun and will be sent back into retirement after this campaign.
The NDP federally has changed and do not represent the Tommy Douglas era politicians anymore. They are urban (or northern) types who cater to fringe special interest groups instead of the "working man" and the "little guy". Ed has stirred up things with the provincial wing, who may not be inclined to help out. Ed will be supported by blue haired old socialists who long for the old days.
There are a lot of people in Selkirk-Interlake who are more Reform/Conservative minded than NDP. Ag producers are not going to flock to Ed who will not be able to offer any support. Jack Layton ain't too friendly to farmers and has focussed his attention to urban causes.
So, while Ed brings name recognition, he will most likely finish a strong second place to the incumbent who has a pretty good relationship with the constituency he lives in.
Sorry Ed, your expiration date passed in 1977.
16 12 05 Andrew
First of all, I'd like to apologize for my prior statement in which I incorrectly said the incumbent was Bruce Benson, when that was of course the Liberal candidate in 2004. I wasn't mistaken in saying that the Conservative incumbent was strong on agricultural issues and that I had believed he would win handily. That being said, I know predict an NDP victory with the announcement of Ed Schreyer as their candidate. Schreyer is a well-respected former premier who represents the classic NDP mentality which emphasizes the working class and small town issues which can sway socially conservative voters. I still except a strong Conservative showing, but Bezan does not have the notoriety to compete with Schreyer.
15 12 05 hooked on politics
With the entrance of Ed Schreyer into the fray, clearly this is a whole new horse race. I suspect many people who voted Liberal in the last election are looking for a good reason to vote elsewhere. Anti Liberal sentiment in Manitoba is especially high in rural small town areas like this one. A heavy hitter like Schreyer will probably be enough to switch them as well as a few Greens to the NDP this time around. I wouldn't bet the proverbial farm on it but my guess is a NDP victory by a small margin
15 12 05 ANPC
So Ed Schreyer has come in off the top ropes for the NDP. I'd still leave this riding in the Conservative column. Here's why:
1) Too much is made of the 'Selkirk' portion of S-I. Selkirk represents less than one-eighth of the riding's population, and although it is a union town, it doesn't vote 100 per cent in favour of the NDP. And, taken together, Stonewall, Teulon and Stony Mountain pretty much cancel out Selkirk. The rest of the riding is not likely cast more NDP votes than Conservative votes.
2) Bezan won almost 50 per cent of the vote last time, as did Howard Hilstrom the election before him. That's an 8,000-vote plurality. Looking at the politicial scene, I don't see Conservative supporters leaving Bezan, especially for the NDP. Looking at the remaining 50 per cent of the vote, it split almost identically between the Dippers and the Liberals in 2004 (10,000 NDP, 9,000 LIB). Both parties ran solid campaigns last year, and the Liberal incumbent (who is somewhat popular) is back this year. For an NDP win to materialize, therefore, you would need to see most of the Liberal vote going to the NDP. Then, you would also need to see some of the Conservative support bleeding off... but if it does bleed off, is it likely it will go to the NDP? Probably not. I think, like last time, we'll see a split of the 'non-Conservative' vote, though more pronounced in favour of the NDP.
3) The provincial situation doesn't transfer to federal politics. Yes, Doer said he'd vote NDP federally, but realistically speaking the prov. NDP is more of a centrist (read Liberal) party. Across western Canada, NDP prov. MLAs have gone to the Liberals federally. This is because the federal NDP, led by Jack Layton, has become dominated by big city white-wine socialists. That reduces the NDP's appeal in its traditional support base of Western Canada, as I've said earlier. Witness the NDP's shutout in Sask. last time around, though I don't expect a repeat of that this time around. Clearly, the NDP has lost relevancy to rural Western voters. So even though Interlake, Gimli and Selkirk are prov. Dipper ridings, don't expect an automatic federal carryover.
3) Precedent. It's really hard to wipe out a big vote lead in one election. It takes a major event or shift, and the polls tell us - right now - that Manitobans are feeling the same way they did last election.
4) Ed Broadbent factor. Yes, Ed came in and won Ottawa Centre last time around. It was a riding that was Liberal forever, and may very well revert back this time around now that Ed's gone. Obviously Broadbent won this riding on personal popularity, not because he was running for the NDP. Could Schreyer do the same in S-I? Don't think so. Ottawa Centre, while not a 'core' riding like Winnipeg Centre, is still an urban riding. The NDP is a little more palatable to voters there than in S-I, which is primarily rural. Despite what CTV has been saying, it is not made up of 'Winnipeg Suburbs', Stony and Stonewall (blue territory) aside.
6) What about the three-way race in 1997, and previous NDP MPs from the riding? Different time, different issues, and in the case of the latter, different ridings. You had two strong Liberal and NDP candidates and an (at the time) unknown in Howard Hilstrom. Still, Hilstrom won the riding and the right-wing vote hasn't looked back since. Issues like C-68 (still huge here) and BSE continue to make the case for the Conservatives, as does the disconnect between the Libs and Dippers in the rural West.
15 12 05 ghgfop
Too close to call. Stars don't always win. However, I think Schreyer has a much better chance than Pawley in 1988. Pawley was an extremely unpopular premier. After he resigned as premier in 1988, the NDP got its worst electoral result ever. (11 seats and thrid place behind the provincial Liberals).
15 12 05 Switch Hitter
Get serious... is Schreyer running, yesterday's man. Did they try to run another has been here years ago...Howard Pawley? Where is the young blood...sheesh
15 12 05 Paul
YWan... The dippers are giddy but fail to be realistic. This riding will stay blue. The margin of victory is way to big to overcome. The old guy who served as GG while Trudeau was in power will take some votes but should just resist in my opinion.
15 12 05
The NDP chose an odd riding to run their "star" candidate in. Where are they going to put their next big candidate, Medicine Hat?
The Conservatives took this one by 8,000 votes last time. This was even a Canadian Alliance riding. *All* Liberal voters will have to move to NDP for the NDP to win it this time around, and that's just not going to happen. They should have picked a different riding, like Churchill or even Kildonan-St. Paul.
15 12 05 M. Lunn
Up until now, I was 100% certain the Conservatives would win this, but with Edward Schreyer throwing his hat in the ring, it will be a lot closer than last time. That being said, the Conservatives won by twenty points so I still think it is an uphill battle to win this. Although the NDP does well here provincially, the NDP got 49% last provincial election while most polls put them around 25% in Manitoba so even with a star candidate they still won't do as well as the provincial NDP. Besides he is from Selkirk, where the NDP already won most of the polls last time around. Gimli and Lakeside are the areas that will be the challenge since they have traditionally gone for parties on the right. I still think James Bezan has the edge, but it is no longer guaranteed.
15 12 05 James C
Even with a NDP star candidate, James Bezan will still win. He won by 48 % last time around, and the riding has changed from when the NDP last had a MP here. The NDP vote is mostly in the town of Selkirk itself and their is not enough of them to sway the riding to the NDP. IN Gimli, they will support the hometown liberal, and the rest of the riding is conservative. When results come in on election night, Bezan will rise to the surface
15 12 05 JT
I going to buck the trend here and call this a narrow CPC hold. I know Ed Schreyer's name carries a lot of weight here but his past comments about homosexuality may make the NDP leadership a bit nervous of fully supporting him. Also, being a star candidate is not an automatic ticket to the House Of Commons just ask Glen Murray.
15 12 05 Social_Democrat
Now that former MP, former Premier, and former Governor General Ed Schreyer will be the NDP candidate, we can put this one in the NDP column.
15 12 05 M.T.
Wow. Bombshell. Ed Schreyer, former Premier, and former Governor General (1979-1984), will be running for the NDP, in a riding he held once upon a time. This is the first time that one of our de facto heads of state will be returning to political life. Imagine the Queen running for a seat in the UK Parliament, or George W. Bush deciding he wants to be Governor of Texas again. Not that it's that big, since a lot of people don't remember who past Governors General are anyway... but the position is supposedly above politics.
Anywho... this race, a Tory hold for certain, suddenly got more interesting. Schreyer is probably the ultimate star candidate. I mean, wouldn't it be disloyal not to vote for someone who was the nation's Commander in Chief? (I'm a Tory personally, but it does raise questions of patriotism...) On the other hand, some people might react against his candidacy for the same reason; shouldn't a former GG stay out of politics? Selkirk-Interlake suddenly became way too close to call... we'll have to see what happens.
15 12 05 CP
This is about to get a lot closer and a lot more interesting with Ed Schreyer running for the NDP.
15 12 05 ER
Former Premier, GG and MP for this riding Ed Shreyer to run for NDP. What was a safe Conservative riding will be a tight contest between NDP and CPC. Expect the Liberal vote to collapse and go to Shreyer.
15 12 05 Peter McG
Toronto Star reports that Ed Schreyer, at the age of 69, is coming out of retirement to run for the NDP in Selkirk. This race just got a lot closer. with a superstar candidate and the Liberals tanking in the prairies, the seat might just turn orange. Former G-G and Premier of the province, can't get much more star power than that.
15 12 05 MWG
Former NDP Premier Ed Schryer will be announcing today that he will be the candidate in this riding.
Good-Bye Liberal vote - Hello NDP victory.
This riding will have an NDP MP again - even though it has been over 25 years since the last one was elected.
It's the ED syndrome. (2004 Ed Broadbent in Ottawa Centre, 2005-06 Ed Schryer in Selkirk Interlake)
It will be close, but the NDP will squeak through.
Better move this one into "too close to call".
15 12 05 Brian F
The Winnipeg Free Press today confirms that former NDP Premier and Governor General Ed Shreyer will be running in Selkirk-Interlake. Hard to judge how this will actually impact voting in a riding which is a safe Conservative riding but the NDP is certainly hoping for a similar impact that Ed Broadbent had in Ottawa Centre.
15 12 05 Bweezy
With Former Governor General and Premier Ed Schreyer surprising just about everyone by jumping into the race for the NDP, the race got a whole lot more interesting.
I don't think Schreyer will win, mind you. Former Premier Howard Pawley tried the same thing in 1988 in this very riding and lost a close race. This may syphon some Liberal Support to the NDP column, but I don't think it will be enough to send Mr Schreyer to Ottawa unless the Tories stumble badly.
15 12 05 MD
To close to call now that former GG Ed Schreyer is the NDP candidate. Slight edge to the Tories, but it could go NDP.
14 12 05 JC
I just heard that Edward Schreyer is going to be the NDP Candidate, There is absolutely no chance for James Bezan against Ed Schreyer, I believe he has met his match.
14 12 05
Many of you will probably disagree, but I'm am going to go out on a limb and go against the grain here, and forecast that the New Democrats are going to win this seat, if the rumours are true about who their candidate is going to be. Stay tuned for an announcement which is expected tomorrow. The NDP came second in 2004.
14 12 05 Jake Porter
This race just got blown wide open by the announcement of Ed Schreyer to run here as NDP. As a former governor general, Premier of Manitoba, environmental activist and numerous diplomatic positions he should be considered a super-star candidate! It might be tricky for the NDP to almost double its numbers here but I would actually be surprised if they don't take the riding. At the very least this riding is now TCTC.
14 12 05 DL
With Ed Schreyer running this will go NDP. The NDP has held this riding in the past. Came within 60 votes of winning it in 1997 and holds all the provincial seats in the area.
14 12 05 Jim
All bets are off. Ed Schreyer was just announced as the NDP candidate. Should make for rather an interesting race.
14 12 05 Pete
With Ed Schreyer now in the race for the NDP, this riding should be moved to too close to call, or even an NDP win. A former governor general and long-serving premier in a riding that has gone NDP many times in the past seems like a recipe for success. Plus, Schreyer was never part of the real left-wing of the NDP - he was more of a centrist and a populist, which means it's likely he'll pick up a lot of votes from both Liberal and NDP voters. The Conservatives could still win - last time Bezan got almost as many votes as the Liberals and NDP combined - but it will certainly be a lot tougher now, and I'd give the edge to Schreyer at this point.
14 12 05 expat
Ed Schreyer jumping into the race will turn the tables upside down in this riding. You don't get much more of a star candidate than a former governor general -- with a candidate like this and a strong historic NDP vote base in the riding it will become very competitive, and Liberal strategic voters will migrate to the NDP. It won't be a landslide, but Schreyer should manage to win this one.
14 12 05 PB
Well...Ed Schreyer's decision to jump into the race certainly changes the dynamic here...He has a lot of ground to make up but the Tory lead is not insurmountable. Schreyer should have a lot of credibility in urban and rural areas and the seat certainly has NDP-friendly territory, both federally and provincially. I think a move to "too close to call" is order.
14 12 05 g-spot
Former Governor-General, the Rt. Hon. Edward Schreyer, has decided to run here! For the NDP, having a former head of state run for them is like getting a gift from heaven. This riding's dynamic has obviously changed; Canadians, come January 23rd, will be looking at this riding as one of the country's greatest contests. It'll certainly be historic! James Bezan may still pull it off, but this certainly must be a gigantic headache for him now! I'm going to call it for Schreyer in an exciting, tight, two-way race.
14 12 05 Mark R.
There is a seismic shift in this riding with the bombshell announcement that Ed Schreyer will be running for the NDP. While there have been successive Reform/Conservatives MP's recently, this riding had previously been NDP with Terry Sargent, albeit marginally. This entire area is represented provincially by NDP MLA's so there is organization and strength to draw from. Given these events and obvious targetting by the NDP, I think this will be an interesting race. What was have thought to have been a Conservative slam-dunk is now a real 2-way race. Also, Kathleen MacCallum came very close 3 elections ago. Stay tuned folks!!!
14 12 05 Richard
The Right Honourable Ed Schreyer is announcing that he will run for the NDP in Selkirk-Interlake, a riding he represented before he became Manitoba's first NDP premier. Ed is a legend in Manitoba, especially in Selkirk! The NDP seem to be having luck with legends named Ed. Bezan is as good as done. Picking up this seat will mitigate the NDP loss to the Liberals in Churchill.
14 12 05 Westman
I was stunned by news I heard today that former Manitoba Premier and Governor General Ed Schreyer will be seeking election in Selkirk Interlake for the NDP. Schreyer was Manitoba's first NDP Premier in 1969 and led the province through a period of progressive change throughout the 1970's. A figure of Mr. Schreyer's profile and stature will make this seat one to watch. I don't care how much the incumbent won by here in 2004 if the report of Schreyer's candidacy is true, we will find out tommorrow, its a whole new ball game. This area of Manitoba has a history of strong NDP support in years past and currently has a handful of seats provincially in the popular NDP government under Gary Doer. Watch for Thursday's announcement but if Schreyer is in mark this one in the NDP column or at least too close to call.
14 12 05 Daniel P
Big News Former MP, former premier, and former governor general of Canada Ed Schreyer is running for the NDP. If elected would be first former Governor General in the commonwealth to run for Parliament. Star candidates don't get much better than this. Probably will be very close, 8000 votes is a lot to make up, and I wonder how effective the NDP campaign can be switching candidates at this point, but I expect Schreyer to gain most of the Liberal votes (don't forget Trudeau appointed him Governor General) and enough of the "vote for change" and elderly conservative vote to eke out a victory.
14 12 05 love, sydney
If Ed Schreyer is jumping into this riding, I'm feeling fairly comfortable that he'll squeeze off enough votes from the Grits and the red tories to squeak this out. Although he doesn't have the profile he use to, he is still highly respected among Manitobans, bother rural and urban, and his popularity is likely across regular party lines. This is one loss for the CPC that they'll make up somewhere else.
11 12 05 J Sweet
This riding will most likely go Conservative. I'd be shocked if it didn't. I'd like to correct Andrew, James Bezan is the serving MP not Bruce Benson. Also I think the residents of Selkirk-Interlake are impressed with his willingness to discuss the agricultural issues and other issues of our riding.
06 12 05 ANPC
"To my great disapointment, this riding will undoubtedly go to the incumbent, Bruce Benson yet again." You mean James Bezan of the Conservatives, right? Actually, Gimli polled strongly for the Liberals in 2004 and should do so again due to the advantage of a hometown candidate - that's Mr. Benson. This is a solid blue riding, as evidenced by the large wins recorded by Reform/Alliance/Conservative candidates in the last three elections. This IS a rural riding, and until the NDP and Liberals gain relevancy to rural western voters, this WILL remain Conservative. End of story.
03 12 05 Andrew
To my great disapointment, this riding will undoubtedly go to the incumbent, Bruce Benson yet again. The NDP have a strong advantage in Selkirk and Gimli, but the Conservatives dominate the rural portions of the riding. This is one of the few incumbents nation-wide that actually understands agricultural issues. The NDP could have challenged if their polling numbers had held up, but the Liberals are once again succeeding with old scare tactics. A strong NDP candidate should give the NDP an easy second.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
Although not exactly the most right wing riding at a provincial level and historically federally, issues such as the gun registry will ensure the Conservatives are re-elected and that the NDP doesn't even come close to winning this riding unlike in 1997, but like 2004.

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