Update:
12:41 AM 07/01/2006

Prediction Changed
12:40 AM 04/05/2005
Election Prediction Project
www.electionprediction.com

Portage-Lisgar
Federal Election - 2006



Constituency Profile

Candidates:
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Green/Vert
Charlie Howatt
Libearl/libéral
Garry McLean
Conservative/conservateur
Brian Pallister
Christian Heritage
David Reimer
NDP/NPD
Daren Van Den Bussche

Incumbent:
Brian Pallister

2004 Result:
Brian Pallister
22939
Don Kuhl
6174
Daren Van Den Bussche
3251
David Reimer
1458
Marc Payette
856
Allister Cucksey
117

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page




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05 01 06 ACM
Jon Gerrard was MP for the old Portage-Interlake riding, which was nothing like Portage-Lisgar. The Lisgar section, with its conservative Mennonite electorate, is Socred-CoR-Reform-Alliance country. P-L is as secure a Conservative fortress as could be.
24 12 05 Bear and Ape
A strong candidate? It would need to be someone with almost rock star-like appeal to over come the nearly 18,000 vote gulf (that is EIGHTEEN THOUSAND votes) between Pallister and the nearest rival, the Liberals. Mr. Pallister can afford foot-in-mouth disease with decisive victories like that.
14 12 05 pax vobiscum
This riding is not as secure as Conservative would have you believe. Jon Gerrard represented it once for the Liberals (a long time ago, granted) and Pallister seems to have caught foot-in-mouth from Harper. His fickle finger to females commnets will not endear him to some people in the riding, and it was in the context of his running for federal office with one foot in the provincial leadership race, it you will pardon the tortured metaphor.
Pallister has a habit of trying to play both ends against the middle, and this could hurt him on January 23. If a strong candidate emerges from one of the other parties, he could be in trouble.
30 11 05 Brian
Pallister has a lock with 65% of the vote in 2004. However, will there be a by-election in Portage Lisgar in the spring if reports that Pallister will jump ship to the provincial Tories is true?
24 11 05 Craig
Safe Conservative seat. Brian Pallister has a possible cabinet post waiting if the Conservatives form government, the Liberals and NDP are out of touch here on gay marriage and other social policies and this is a rural riding that is traditionally Conservative/Reform anyway. Predicted results: CPC 66%, LIB 19%, NDP 13%, GRN 5%.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
This was the strongest Conservative riding outside of Alberta, so Brian Pallister is certainly going back to Ottawa. If the Conservatives form government, he will almost certainly be a cabinet minister.



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