Update/Mise à jour:
3:09 AM 03/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
12:09 AM 06/05/2005
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Willowdale
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale



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Candidates/candidats:
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Conservative/conservateur
Jovan Boseovski
NDP/NPD
Rochelle Carnegie
Libearl/libéral
Jim Peterson
Green/Vert
Sharolyn Vettese

Incumbent/Député:
Hon. Jim Peterson

2004 Result/Résultats:
Jim Peterson
30855
Jovan Boseovski
11615
Yvonne Bobb
4812
Sharolyn Vettese
1844
Ardavan Behrouzi
883
IND
Bernadette Michael
253

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page




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01 01 06 Bear and Ape
Another CPC prediction for Toronto? Please! The Liberals won with over 19,000 votes (say it all together now; NINETEEN THOUSAND). That's way too much to overcome in such a short time, let alone that the Tory's are tanking in most of the Toronto area. So what that affluent people are moving to the riding, can anyone name one urban affluent riding (outside of Alberta) that is flocking to the CPC? The answer is no.
29 12 05 M. Lunn
Okay lets stop the ridiculous Conservative predictions. While it is true the Conservative candidate is quite moderate compared to most of the party and it is true the Conservative almost won this last provincial election and probably will next provincial election, the Liberals took this in a landslide. The Liberals got 3x as many votes as the Tories and despite modest Tory gains in Ontario, they are still third in Toronto so they have virtually no chance of winning seats in Toronto at least not in the 416 part, maybe the 905 area. Even in the 1988 election when the Progressive Conservatives won 11 seats in Toronto, this was not one of them. Besides whether people are on the left or right, people in Toronto have pretty much a universal fear of Stephen Harper and won't go Conservative until the party moderates.
28 12 05 DaPan
In reading previous submissions for Willowdale, I was surprised to see the kind of arguments that support a Liberal re-election of Peterson. "He's long in the tooth", or "he's been around forever, etc." Let's not forget what happened to Liberal long-time incumbent Dennis Mills in Toronto - Danforth. Of course, he was defeated by a much more visible candidate then Jovan.
The argument that Jovan does not meet the demographic is true for the Chinese-Canadian community as they have long been Liberal supporters thanks to Trudeau; however, anyone who has visited North York/Willowdale recently would notice the ever-increasing majority of affluent families. Professionals and wealthy individuals will give the Conservatives a second look.
20 12 05 Koby
Incumbent Jim Peterson in this Liberal stronghold will still take the riding with a close runner up Jovan Boseovski. Jovan, who placed 2nd in 2004, does not identify with the demographic. Jim Peterson will likely lose some votes that will spread out to Jovan, Yvonne, and Sharolyn. Greens have been very active in the area since last election, with leader Jim Harris making several appearances. Sharolyn Vettese's numbers will increase again.
14 12 05 David
A S, David Zimmer defeated Conservative incumbent David Young in the 2003 provincial election.
09 12 05 MH
Barring some totally unforeseen event, Willowdale should be one more easy Liberal win, though perhaps with a reduced margin of victory.
A number of commentators called for a Tory victory in 2004. Mr. Boseovski was buried by almost 20,000 votes, while Jim Peterson took more than 61% of the cote! This time, too, there seems to be some optimism in Conservative ranks. The grounds for it are unclear. Mr. Peterson is a getting long in the tooth in political terms, but he should still be more than potent enough to beat the Conservatives. All the Conservatives can do is hope that a miracle will take place, here and in other ridings in Toronto, and that their candidates will beat the odds.
It's not the fault of the local Tories, nor greatly to the credit of the federal Liberal party or of Mr. Peterson, that this is so. My guess is that the Conservative party will continue to do badly in Toronto until the old Reform element loses its grip on the party, and its members select a leader from anywhere but Alberta. One from urban Ontario would be best, difficult as it may be for the Albertans to accept. Until that time, it seems safe to colour Willowdale red along with almost all Toronto ridings.
07 12 05 Brian
Yes, Jovan is the CPC candidate again. This should be an easy re-election for Jim Peterson.
Couple of notes about the riding: I've heard it described as the federal riding with the oldest average residents in Canada - many of its houses were built in the 1950's and still have the original owner/residents. Many of the newer residents are professionals and Chinese-Canadians. Any challenger would have to somehow surpass Peterson's appeal to these demographics.
Jim did have some health issues in the past few years, but currently seems healthy. He is reportedly a close friend of Paul Martin, and I'd speculate Jim will stay on as long as Paul Martin is leader, and retire after Martin steps down.
03 12 05 A.S.
An eternal happy Parliamentary second-stringer, whether in the backbenches or in minor cabinet positions, Jim Peterson's somehow bluffed his way into being the only remaining Liberal MP running for re-election who served under Pierre Elliot Trudeau. (Keep in mind, though, that his tenure hasn't been continuous, thanks to a 1984-88 Mulroney-landslide blip.) No reason for any change anytime soon--even if this was almost the only provincial PC seat in Toronto to withstand the '03 McGuinty landslide, strangely enough...
29 05 05 Christopher J. Currie
Update for the last poster: the Nodice site is listing Jovan Boseovski as the nominated Conservative candidate. Liberal hold, no question.
15 05 05 Eastern Ontario Values
To end the debate once and for all, David Young's not running in Willowdale. The website cited below has a mix of information from past and present, and also appears to include some speculation on possible candidates submitted by readers - it's not meant to be a reliable, newsworthy site, just a discussion forum for the politically interested. I believe the previous Conservative candidate from 2004 is looking to run again.
09 05 05 DAO
Predicto, I can understand why you would question the veracity of David Young being the CPC candidate because oddly he hasn't been receiving any press at all. For confirmation though, see http://www.nodice.ca/elections/canada/ridings-ontario-8.php and scroll down for Willowdale. I agree with you that one way or the other this election is Peterson's last.
Zimmer did beat Young in the last provincial election but only by about 1800 votes and in that case the Liberals had all of the momentum on their side. Different situation by far this time.
07 05 05 Dr. Predicto
Lets correct the first post; David Young is not running federally in Willowdale.
I do believe we will have incumbent Conservative candidate Jovan Boseovski back for a return engagement.
He will no doubt be defeated by Jim Peterson, who will likely not enjoy his stay on the Opposition benches very much, and will make this his last election in Willowdale...
07 05 05 MF
This riding should stay Liberal, albeit by a narrower margin, assuming David Young is the Tory candidate. This is an affluent, highly-educated, professional, inner-ring suburban riding. The NDP is a fringe party here. Harper's social conservatism will turn off many voters, even if Young himself isn't a social conservative. And Jim Peterson's a popular MP who easily won last time. Young was a respected Tory MPP and many predicted he would be the sole survivor of the 416 Tories. He lost to Liberal David Zimmer, who was relatively unknown. If an unknown Liberal beat Young, I can't see Young beating Peterson.
Prediction: 50% LIB, 37% CON, 10% NDP, 3% others
03 05 05 DAO
I know that last time around I stated that I thought this race would at least be close. Turned out that Peterson absolutely smoked the opposition.
I'm going to cautiously say that things will be different this time. The triple attack of having David Young (a recognisable former school trustee) as the candidate, more sponsorship scandal, and the fiscal imbalance will definitely increase the Tory vote share. Also, as a CPC minority government becomes more likely the voters of Willowdale will not want to do what they have only done once since the riding was created--elect an opposition MP.
01 05 05 Miles Lunn
This should be an easy liberal win. The NDP is only strong in the downtown areas, while the Conservatives are only strong in the outer areas of the GTA in the 905 area code, which this riding fits neither profile. Jim Petersen won by almost 40 points last time around, so no matter how big a liberal melt down there is, this will stay liberal and return Jim Petersen to Ottawa.



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