Update/Mise à jour:
9:22 AM 13/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
3:23 PM 08/05/2005
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Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale

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Royal Galipeau
Marc Godbout
Mark Andrew Leahy
Alain Saint-Yves
Sarah Samplonius

Marc Godbout

2004 Result/Résultats:
Marc Godbout
Walter Robinson
Crystal Leblanc
Dan Biocchi

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page

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13 01 06 Blueyonder
This riding contains many military and ex-military members. Although the ad was pulled, the Liberal attack add on the military is not being seen in a very good light and people are angry. This was probably enough to ensure that this riding goes conservative.
12 01 06 E. O.
Royal Galipeau might be a fairly hopeless candidate, and Marc Godbout a quiet but rather effective MP, but it is impossible for the Conservatives to rise 10 points in Ontario and not win these seats that they only lost by a few thousand votes last time.
03 01 06 Victor A.
I wouldn't be surprised if the PC candidate actually took it. In fact, I think that this riding is yet another one in Eastern Ontario that will be very close. Although Galipeau is described as weaker delegate than Robinson the last time, I think there are clearly three things going for him, a :) The PC support in Eastern Ontario stronger than ever before and it will probably grow with this new stock trade scandal, b :) He is perceived as having less attitute than Robinson, who might have been a competent candidate but his attitude was an instant turn-off to me and c :) He is Franco-Ontarian, which is always an advantage in a riding like that. I'm actually torn about this one, if Bellemare was still there I'd certainly favour Galipeau to win it, but he is not. Godbout seems to be quite active in the community and I think the incumbency status will be his saving grace this time around. Given the PC support in Eastern Ontario everything can happen but I'd say Godbout by 300-700 votes, don't count out Galipeau yet.
01 01 06 Aric H
Since I last posted here a couple weeks ago the Conservatives are picking up some momentum. They have got their campaign underway and there appear to be more Conservative signs on private property than Liberal signs. Of course in this riding that does not mean they will win since last time Walter Robinson had more signs and he lost. Liberal voters are more quiet in this riding and do not display how they will vote as much as Conservatives do. However, since the Liberals have gone down several points over the past week because of the Income Trust Scandal, this riding could become a bellwether that could flip from Liberal to Conservative if the Conservatives break away from the Liberals in the current stalemate. I will now label it Too Close To Call for the month of January.
30 12 05 DC
Also, although Walter Robinson was considered a 'star' candidate, he was disliked by many including myself because of his very strong opposition to Light Rail in Ottawa. Although not a Federal issue, most Orleans residents were very excited about the idea of commuting by train to the West part of the city were not eager to support someone that could jeapordize the on-going pilot project.
Although Royal Galipeau is not well known, Marc Godbout certainly has not made a name for himself in the short time he's been in office in order to make a difference. Galipeau also seems like an intelligent, likeable fellow who will get many francophone votes just by default. Robinson did not have that luxery.
26 12 05 M. Lunn
I am moving this back to the Liberals. While the Tory numbers have improved marginally in Eastern Ontario, last time around they had a star candidate Walter Robinson running here, while Marc Godbout lacked the incumbent status. Any gains in Eastern Ontario by the Tories will be offset by the above factors.
22 12 05 M. Lunn
I am also moving this back into the Liberal column. The Conservatives have picked up a little bit in Ontario, so they could win as many as 10 new seats, but this riding, they had a star candidate last time around and if they couldn't win then, I don't think they can now. It is true this is more suburban than urban, which is good for the Tories, but unlike Ottawa West-Nepean, which is overwhelmingly anglophone, this riding has a large francophone population who are still uncomfortable with the Conservatives due to their pasts positions on bilingualism.
15 12 05 Aric H
I live in this riding and posted about it earlier in the year. This theoretically SHOULD be a too close to call riding, but I am not sure if it has reached that status yet the way it did in 2004.
Now that the election is a couple of weeks underway I will mention one or two things. First is that I only see the Liberals bothering to put out signs on the intersections of main roads such as St. Joseph and Innes. I have not seen any Conservative signs yet - only Liberal signs saying to re-elect Marc Godbout. Does this indicate that the Conservatives are not heavily targetting this riding afterall? That brings me to my second point which is related to the first. In 2004 Conservative Walter Robinson clearly had the momentum in the early part of the campaign and you could feel it in the riding. I sense none of that Conservative momentum or energy to win this time around. Perhaps the Conservatives are hoping that people will quietly go out and vote for them and that the riding will swing over to them, but at this point no one seems to be really taking on Marc Godbout so he seems to be having an easier time than he did in 2004 so far.
04 12 05 Two Cents
Observers shuld not forget that this seat was almost won by the Tories in 2004 until the surge to the Liberals in the last week wiped out Robinson's lead. There is a lot of dissatisfaction about the Liberal government within the ranks of the public service, especially in the Department of Defence which is strongly represented among residents of this riding. Moreover, Galipeau can now compete on an equal basis for the francophone vote, which remains significant even if it is a shrinking part of the total vote.
29 11 05 M. Lunn
I am moving this back to too close to call. I agree that the lack of a star candidate for the Conservatives and the fact the Liberals have the incumbency this time will make a Conservative pick-up difficult. I would say their chances in Ottawa West-Nepean or even Ottawa South are better. However, one must remember the Liberals were 13 points ahead of the Conservatives in Ontario in 2004, while the most recent polls put them only 2 and 5% ahead (however this could easily change as it has in the past).
21 11 05 Steve G
I'm going to make a bold prediction: whichever party wins the riding of Ottawa-Orléans will win the election and form the next government. Eastern Ontario is a must-win region for the Tories, and I would say that need to have a solid base of at least 11 or 12 of this region's 17 seats (they currently have 8) if they hope to make inroads in other parts of the province, and Ottawa-Orleans is by far the most important. While the Tories may not have a prayer in suburban Toronto, suburban Ottawa is not automatically repelled by neo-conservatism (whether real or perceived) and is the kind of small-c conservative turf that a reconstituted Conservative Party - with less pronounced or controversial positions on social issues - should be able to sweep against a scandal-plagued Liberal Party. If the Tories can't win here, neither will they be able to win the suburban ridings around London, Kitchener, Guelph, and St. Catherines, nevermind Toronto. Expect the Tories to work hard to win this one, with considerable help from neighbouring nearby rural ridings that are safe Tory seats. At this point, still too close to call and certainly one to watch on election night.
22 10 05 A.S.
This should have been a historic Tory gain but for those last West-triumphant days of the Harper campaign--and incidentally, the Anglo-vs-Franco poll factor is no longer so clear as the former Carleton-Gloucester's been pared down to its increasingly affluent/suburban/homogeneous essentials (and, it would seem, whatever Francophone-dominance remains is more assimilationist). Funny how Walter Robinson is supposedly regarding 2004 as more of a CPC plateau than stepping-stone. Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised if the National Capital Region, having been a benchmark for precocious "thinking person's" ReformAllianceTory-compatibility over the past decade (and for Liberal-compatibility in the years leading up to the 1993 landslide), might now turn out to be ahead of the game, or further along in the game, in swinging *away* from the Tories. And tops on the presumptive counter-swing list are those seats with the most tenuous Tory history, like this one. How much presumption = actuality is another matter--but now, the most talked-about Ottawa-area CPC prospect isn't Walter Robinson, it's John Baird several seats over...
19 10 05
Marc Godbout will win this riding for the same reason Pierre poilievre will win his riding. Marc is everywhere and goes to every event he can possibly attend. He defeated an incumbent in a nomination battle and that is no small feat. Marc is well-liked. Unless Royal Galipeau, the conservative candidate can shake more hands and do something spectacular for the riding, Godbout will easily keep this riding.
20 07 05 M. Lunn
Last time around there was no incumbent and Walter Robinson was a star candidate. With no star candidate and an incumbent this time, I think the liberals will hold this one. Had Scott Reid not made his stupid comments about scrapping bilingualism the Tories probably would have taken this since 1/3 of the riding is Francophone and if I am not mistaken the Tories did well in the predominately Anglophone areas while were crushed in the predominately Francophone areas. Even Walter Robinson admitted this would be a tough riding to win. The only other Ottawa riding besides Carleton-Lanark and Nepean-Carleton the Tories have a good shot at taking is Ottawa West-Nepean since John Baird is a high profile candidate, moderate on social issues, the area is predominately Anglophone and more affluent, and the Tories almost won it last time around while the time around Marlene Cattrall is not seeking re-election.
12 06 05 Rainer Bloess City Councillor Ottawa
As an Ottawa city councillor I read with interest the various postings on this web site, especially as they relate to my ward and my riding. At times, the comments range from insightful to inciteful, from bemusing to conjecture to outrageous opinions.
Now that an election has been averted (albeit just for a while), it’s time to debunk some of the myths below. It appears that the prognosticators here are begrudgingly writing off their chances for knocking off Marc Godbout and the Liberals in Ottawa-Orléans. But, at the same time, the posties below are still living in the past and dreaming that Walter Robinson won the last election.
Let’s stick to facts, first about Walter’s convictions vs Godbout’s opportunism, Walter’s conviction is that he can not win at this time, his best chance came last June when Godbout was unknown and the local Liberals were in disarray. Walter does not have the stomach to step into the ring at this time and can not afford another loss (coupled with his previous election set-backs) as his image would unravel quicker than the latest conspiracy theory on the web.
Second, as for Godbout being “lazy”, not sure where “Stonewall” resides (or where he hides behind his anonymous pseudonyms on the internet); the fact is that Godbout is out and about at a more hectic pace than any local politicians seen in these parts in quite a while - this weekend alone I ran into him at three community events on Saturday, several more on Sunday and he attended others I did not get to (the running joke is that I see more of him than I see of my wife, which is not a good thing). When Godbout is not able to make a local event due to other commitments, his staff attends on his behalf. His householders are coming out at a rapid pace ensuring that his face and name are on voters’ minds.
Finally, as for the myth that the Conservatives increased their vote in this riding in the last election, the fact is that the percentage of the vote (for Walter) actually went down from the previous campaign when two unknowns carried the banner for the PC/Alliance cause; the only real gains were the NDP and Greens who increased their share of the vote. While the voter turnout was quite strong accounting for higher raw numbers, percentage wise it was a disappointing loss for Robinson and the Conservatives considering the resources (both dollars and workers) from outside the riding thrown into the campaign.
While predicting the outcome of an election tends to be a crap shoot in volatile times and any candidate can be swept in or out by a powerful tide, Godbout certainly seems to be doing what is in his power to control his destiny. Even his campaign financing is on track with some recent high priced fund raisers to ensure that the money is in place in the event the writ is dropped.
10 05 05 Stonewall
This is another riding that I hate to admit but Marc Godbout will win. Make no mistake about it, Walter Robinson would have beaten Godbout this time around. However, Walter's convictions are stronger than Godbout's opportunism. Our only joy is that either Bernard or Galipeau will do well enough to provide traction for a future date for Walter. With Godbout being lazy, we shouldn't expect to see much of Liberals in Orleans this time around.
09 05 05 M. Lunn
I would give the liberals the edge here since Walter Robinson was a star candidate for the Tories and isn't running again as well as this has gone liberal in just about every election since World War II except the 1984 and 1958 sweeps. In fact this was the riding Maureen McTeer, Joe Clark's wife lost in 1988. Nevertheless, the Provincial Tories pulled off a surprise win in 1999 so a surprise Tory win is possible since Eastern Ontario often tends to vote differently than the GTA where the liberals are strong. In fact had Scott Reid not made his stupid comments about scrapping bilingualism, Walter Robinson probably would have won since 30% of the riding is Francophone.
04 05 05 Aric H
This is my own riding and I will predict at the moment that this will be held by the Liberals. The two Conservative candidates running for the nomination here are not as strong or as well known in my opinion as last year's Conservative candidate Walter Robinson who used to be the head of the Canadian Taxpayer's Federation and who is not running this year. Although the Conservative vote did go up in this riding last year, I expect that Liberal MP Marc Godbout will maintain it unless the Conservatives get higher results in Ontario than they are polling right now.

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