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David W. Bylsma
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2004 Prediction page
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||12 01 06
|Assumptions that Grimsby/Stoneycreek voters will vote liberal are very wrong.|
||30 12 05
|This riding should be the next one taken from the too close side and put in the Tory side. Dean Allison has the advantage of being a sitting MP now but most important here is who isn't running for the Liberals. Debbie Zimmerman made the last race much closer than is should have been. Without her, the Liberals had to run a B Teamer like Carter who nobody knows. If the Liberals manage to hold on to their Ontario numbers from last time, Carter still loses by a couple thousand. Allison is a lock.|
||17 12 05
|Conservative hold. What's changed from last time? (1) Allison now has the slight advantage of incumbency and (2) the Liberals have a less well known candidate. It may be true that the suburban parts of the riding are growing fastest and breaking towards the Liberals, but it is only 18 months since the last election, and so the numbers of new suburbanites will not be enough to outweigh factors (1) and (2).|
||15 12 05
||Michael W Ensley|
|Factors hurting Dean|
1. National Conservative Campaign
2. Swing to the Liberals in Ont
3. Carter is a go for broke type of perspn..Wise not to underestimate her.
4. The NDP vote was higher last time with a new leader and new candidate.
5. Green vote will hot hold up but bleed.
6. CHP vote could go up with nothing to lose.
||06 12 05
|I think Deans support is rock solid but may be in for a surprise - his weakness is in new parts of Grimsby and Stoney Creek mtn/Binbrook. Both areas have significantly more new housing and Liberals tend to do better 2:1 in those areas. I think Liberals could snag this riding by about the same margin they lost last time. Alot of the rural part and Beamsville are more worried about same sex marriage than anything else - many Dutch/ Christian voters here - they will stick with Alison or CHP.|
||06 12 05
|Well its nice to see how the rural population will vote, as if it wasn't a forgone conclusion that Pelham Mount Hope and the other small towns were going to vote Conservative. But the majority of voters live in suburban housing and not in rural areas, they will decide how this riding lands. The fastest growing part of this riding is in Stoney Creek, where a huge centrist voting base lives already. There is also Grimsby which is a very suburban area and is more responsive to Liberalism. This race is going to be extremely tight, but the suburban areas will come through for Carter this time.|
||04 12 05
|This riding should be changed immediately to a Conservative prediction. This is the type of riding where you really need to live in to realize how popular the Liberal candidate last time around was. With Allison's win over Zimmerman while the polls tanked nationally for the Conservatives, he will easily beat Heather Carter this time around. Tories could be down 15% in the polls and this will stay a Conservative riding.|
||03 12 05
|Factors working against Dean:|
1. Bylsma (CHP) will seek to siphen off as many votes as possible from Dean, because he's not going to get them from any other party. Contrary to Byslma's own wishes, the better the CHP does, the better the chance for the Libs.
2. The possibility of a shift from NDP to Liberal as per Buzz Hargrove. (Though every less vote for the NDP means $1.50 less for that party).
3. Former Green Party supporters may feel this time around that their vote will be wasted, and that support would most likely not go to Dean. (Though this may not be a factor since every Green vote means $1.50 for the party.)
Factors working in favour of Dean:
1. Liberal Sponsorship Scandal / Liberal corruption / Liberal culture of entitlement - which will solidify the NDP base, and which may draw support from soft Lib supporters who voted for the popular Zimmerman last time around when Adscam wasn't as widely known.
2. New Liberal candidate is an unknown.
3. Dean Allison is becoming more of a household name and has had the opportunity to meet many new people.
4. Many seniors in this riding (and Dean was/is seniors' affairs critic).
5. Majority of people in this riding favour the traditional definition of marriage (let's not forget that Bill C-38 was introduced AFTER the election and some Zimmerman supporters did not see it coming).
5. Strong, large, enthusiastic campaign team for Dean.
I'm predicting a Dean Allison victory in the neighbourhood of about 1200 votes.
||30 11 05
|As a voter in Pelham I can tell that Dean Allison is going to have no problem winning re-election this time around. Heather Carter is supposedly from Pelham, but none of us here have ever heard of her! Since she is a virtual unknown in Pelham, I can only imagine how unknown she is in the rest of the riding. |
Dean Allison on the other hand is very well known in this part of the riding; a part he doesn't even live in. Dean Allison has been in the Pelham papers quite a lot, and people are very familiar with his ideas, policies, and principles.
There is no way a virtual unknown like Heather Carter is going to beat a sitting M.P. like Dean Allison. If Debbie Zimmerman couldn't beat Dean Allison, Heather doesn't have a chance.
||29 11 05
|Anybody who thinks this riding is going to the Liberals, is completely fooling themselves. If Debbie Zimmerman couldn't win this riding for the Liberals, then there is no chance that Heather Carter can. Zimmerman is a well known Regional Councillor, while Heather Carter is a complete unknown.|
The comment made earlier that Stoney Creek and Grimsby will easily cancel out the "social conservative" vote in Lincoln and West Lincoln, is completely wrong. First of all, Dean Allison is about more than just social conservativism. Look at his work on the Public Accounts Committee fighting to bring more integrity to the way government spends his money. Look at his work on agriculture, fighting for our wineries by trying to get rid of the excise tax. His attempts to gain stable funding for the Vineland Research Station which is of such importance to the local farmers and greenhouse owners. (One of the local papers had an article about this a week or so ago).
Perhaps the most ridiculous comment made about Dean Allison is that he is a backbencher, and will always remain so. The author of that comment should perhaps spend some time reading the local papers. The local papers have been full of Dean Allison's work for seniors, as the Seniors Critic for the Conservative Party. A critic role - Not a backbencher.
This riding has a ton of seniors, a huge percentage of whom will vote. In the 2004 campaign, a quick look at the senior polls in the riding will show the vote was split. This time around that is going to change in a big way. Seniors will line up to get their strong voice back in Parliament.
Basically this riding hasn't changed a whole lot since the 2004 election. Demographics remain about the same. This time around Dean Allison has built up his base with seniors, farmers, and the average tax payer who wants their money spent well. His support base it much broader than religious people. This, combined with a much weaker Liberal opponent will ensure Dean Allison gets re-elected. In my opinion, in a big way.
||24 11 05
|I think that this riding is a little more volatile than many assume. First there was a 600 vote margain last time, which is no secret. But what is not considered is the non-existence of a get-out-the-vote campaign by either side due to the unfortunate events at the end of the last election. Writing off lesser known candidates is a mistake, one needs only to look to your neighbouring riding to see how Diane Finlay unseated a popular cabmin. As for Lincoln, the votes there can easily be be cancelled out by suburban Grimsby and Stoney Creek who cannot tolerate the socon policies of Dean Allison. This is going to be a tough race and pretending it is not is disingenuous.|
||24 11 05
|The Liberals would've surely won if Zimmerman were running again, but Heather Carter as a candidate is a weak choice and will definitely give way to Allison's re-election. Even though he'll only get about 40% of support, the split between the Liberals and the NDP in this riding will let his Conservative/Christian fanbase get their man. Too bad Carter (a female version of Allison) and Heatley (a guy with a terrible track record, who no one wants elected, but several ppl support his party) won't be able to cogently fight him. It'll be Allison. Even though he sucks. This riding is just a terrible case-and-point for power politics. Allison has accomplished nothing so far, and his position as a Conservative backbencher (which is what he is the current minority gov't, will continue to be, and would continue to be even if the Conservatives won a majority) forces him to support the wide-ranging policies that don't let him actually reflect the riding. Look at the fact that he won by 600 votes. Liberals + NDP are a majority overtop his Conservative base, but our electoral system just doesn't accommodate that.|
||23 11 05
|MP Dean Allison should win by a much more comfortable margin than he did over former regional chair Debbie Zimmerman in June 2004. Zimmerman was a star candidate. With all due respect, Heather Carter is not. With the fallout of the Gomery Inquiry still fresh in voters' minds, Carter will be hard pressed to gain the support Zimmerman did. The vast number of small-c conservative voters in Lincoln and West Lincoln (as evidenced by the support the CHP gets in this riding) will be the foundation on which Allison will build his victory. As with the last election, NDP David Heatley will put up a good fight and say all the right things, but he will be a non-factor on election day.|
||15 10 05
|With the nomination of Heather Carter, liberals still believe that they are 600 votes away from victory but lets review the facts:|
1.Debbie Zimmerman is a regional counciller and who was the Regional Chair who did a good job
2. She was from Grimsby an area Mr.Allison and the conservatives were not well known, as well as she was head of the Grape Growers association an association that is very important Niagara and wine making
3. Heather Carter to the best of my knowledge has not been elected for anything (please correct me if I'm wrong) and is currently a Professor at Niagara College
4.With the full report of the Gomery Inqury to be released that will not make the job any easier for anybody
In conclusion this race is just starting and can go any way.
||04 10 05
|This will definitely be a high target for the liberals in Ontario and considering the fact Dean Allison is one of the more right wing Ontario MPs, this won't likely go over well in the Hamilton and Grimsby portions. At the same time, Lincoln county is a rural riding and tends to be very conservative on social issues and has no problem with right wingers. If Dean Allison can empty out all the churches in Lincoln county that might be enough to save him, even if he gets beaten badly in Hamilton. I believe Tim Hudak is one of the more right wing members in the Ontario PCs yet he easily held Erie-Lincoln. Unlike most Ontario ridings, this is a mixed urban/rural riding so as usual the urban parts will go liberal and rural parts conservative. Whichever wins by a bigger margin will take the riding.|
||24 09 05
|If the Liberals nominate Zimmerman again, she'll win. It's obvious that the Conservatives are in a downswing after losing Stronach and that the public isn't exactly going to blame fresh Liberals for the Chretien days.|
Niagara is a border region and very sensitive to border problems. They will want someone who knows that, in government, and able to speak to it.
They made a mistake in 2004 and expressed some anger with a strong NDP and Green vote (and a surprisingly high vote for other small parties). In 2006 they'll wake up and realize they're better off with a Liberal, even if they continue to work for those other parties provincially (as they should, the Ontario Liberals are awful).
There's a small chance resentment of the Ontario Liberals will rub off but the public generally realizes that McGuinty, Sorbara and those other liars are not allowed in the door in Ottawa and that the parties are separate.
Add it up. If the idiot NDP and flaky Greens wake up and realize that Debbie Zimmerman, former Niagara Region chair, is a strong voice for them in a Liberal government, and would actually get them the power to do what they want to do (she might even get into Cabinet if Glenn Murray or John Godfrey doesn't get in, Zimmerman would be a great Minister of State for Communities and Infrastructure), then, the Liberals could retake this.
The Green Party of Canada is in internal chaos with a Deputy Leader just quitting to join the Liberals, no agreements on how to split up Chretien's windfall money, and an extremely unpopular leader who has no chance even of winning a seat. Why should any sane Green want a Conservative in Ottawa?
A few votes swinging to Zimmerman gets her into the House.
||21 05 05
|I may be in a minority here (in reading other comments), but I think the Liberals will win surprisingly the next election in this riding. A strong Liberal vote was seen last time in the Glanbrook/Hamilton area of the riding, plus Pelham. Instead of reaching out to all communities, the current MP has narrowed his focus and continues to isolate moderates -- works well with his Reform roots, but won't gain other votes. Should be an interesting battle.|
||12 05 05
|Keep in mind that the surprisingly close result in what was meant to be a Tory slam-dunk riding (closer than in nearby, and less obviously slam-dunky, seats such as Haldimand-Norfolk and Niagara Falls) may have been the result of a melodramatic "sympathy vote"; Debbie Zimmerman's son died under mysterious circumstances several days before E-day. She was a star candidate, yes, but more a star candidate out of save-whatever-we-can Liberal desperation. Incumbency, though, assures that Tory slam-dunks shall hencefoth come easier--but Dean Allison should remain wary of how efficiently his Niagara Bible Belt turf was nearly outflanked by urban/suburban Liberal voters in Hamilton, Grimsby, even Fonthill...|
||09 05 05
|Dean Allison won last campaign with 600+ votes, not 300 as an earlier poster mentioned. |
With the Liberals yet to nominate a candidate, and the Conservatives with a sitting M.P., this riding is a gimmie for the Conservartives.
Allison may lose the Stoney Creek portion of the riding, but that is probably it. Last campaign he cleaned up in Lincoln, West Lincoln, and the rural parts of Pelham and Glanbrook. Considering how popular Debbie Zimmerman was in Grimsby, he managed to hold his own there. Actually winning the advanced poll in Grimsby.
The best case scenario for the Liberals in this election is a minority government. Even with a Liberal minority, this riding is going Conservative.
||07 05 05
|Even when the polls crashed nationally for the Conservatives last campaign, this riding still went blue. Last time around the Liberals ran a very popular candidate in Debbie Zimmerman. This time around they haven't even called a nomination meeting yet. It is quite possible they will be without a candidate when the writ is dropped.|
If the Liberals lost last time around with a popular candidate, and a much more organized start to the campaign, they are in some serious trouble this time around. The Conservatives on the other hand have not only the advantage of an incumbent, but they are organized and ready for a election call at any time.
This one is a no-brainer. Look for Dean Allison to win this one with a much higher share of the vote than last time.
||05 05 05
|Without the advanced polls, this would have gone liberal, since Dean Allison only won by 300 votes. This riding is sharply divided between the Hamilton portions which will go liberal and the rural parts, which will go Conservative. Nevertheless, the Conservatives are up in the polls in Ontario (even after the recent drop), so Dean Allison should be re-elected. There are also lots of social conservatives in Lincoln county who will come out to vote Dean Allison due to his strong opposition to same-sex marriage, so if he can pile up huge numbers in Lincoln county, he has won this regardless of how well he does in the Hamilton portion.|
||02 05 05
|Dean Allison will hold onto this riding. I live in this riding - and can honestly say - if the Libs couldn't win with Zimmerman last time - they haven't got a hope this time.|