Update/Mise à jour:
11:30 AM 19/01/2006

Prediction Changed
La prévision a changé
5:48 PM 12/01/2006
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Halton
Federal Election - 2006 - élection générale



Constituency Profile
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Candidates/candidats:
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Libearl/libéral
Gary Carr
Green/Vert
Kyle Grice
NDP/NPD
Anwar Naqvi
Conservatives/Conservateurs:
Garth Turner

Incumbent/Député:
Gary Carr

2004 Result/Résultats:
Gary Carr
27362
Dean Martin
21704
Anwar Naqvi
4642
Frank Marchetti
2889

For historical result, please see
2004 Prediction page



Authorized by the Official Agent for Garth Turner
18 01 06 Greg A.
Gary Carr has pulled off impresive victories in this area his entire political life. Garth Turner on the other hand has only just recently swooped back into town after a 12 year absence to try and reclaim his old seat. He claims he has already won the election and boasts it daily on his blog. He figures an aggressive sign campaign will translate into votes at the polls. We have seen this before. Recall Dean Martin.
13 01 06 Ryan
Gary mostly likes to stick jabs in the local conservatives by calling them reformers and right wingers (although he was elected with MIKE HARRIS, thats another story)... Gary's householders were more Liberal drivel with shots taken here and there at conservatives, I think just to rile them up more than anything. In the last election Gary was using Paul Martins name left right and centre...at this point other than the TINY Paul Martins Liberals on his signs (and the Team Paul sign from last election) narry a peep of Paul comes from his mouth. And even more odd, is the fact in the recent Paul Martin southern ontario tour...Burlington, Oakville, Hamilton... Hal.. oh wait.. no Halton visit... hmmmmmm.
Now onto the conservative candidate. Garth claims that hes a former cabinet minister (summer job along with the PM of the moment) and hes a proven winner. Garth won on the free trade election in 88 and lost in 93...hardly a stellar record there Mr Turner. His campaign tells two differnt stories. If you read his blog, the ground has been shaking in Halton for the massive numbers of volunteers and the groundswell of support for Garth, its only a matter of time before Gary moves out of his consitituancy office and back to Vancouver...but sit. A casual drive by the campaign office shows maybe at times one or two people coming in and out during the day and evenings. In other words you can always find a parking spot around his office. In all fairness Carr's office is quite the graveyard as well.
Gary Carr has been hiding in the wallpaper since hes been elected. Doing nothing wrong...and nothing at ALL really...there isnt a lot of "anti Carr" sediment here in Halton. While Garths blog claims hes putting up signs all over the riding, driving around I dont see as many in the residential areas as I do on street corners. Sign wars dont win campaigns, never have and never will so why the focus on them. Sure hes been out at the doors constantly, but did that help the last candidate? Nope. Garth has been known to be a tad arrogant in his ways, and despite being in a very very tight race he began almost immediately to announce his plan for a free concert (read victory party) on election night.
This riding has changed 10 fold since the last time he was MP. Its a different world and from what I can gather, many middle class "regular" folk and I dont think Garth and his "upper middle class" arrogance will connect with people. At least as much as his daily blog activities give us the indication theyre going to rename the riding Turner-town in his honour.
07 01 06 Paul
This one has been up in the air the whole campaign. M Lunn's earlier comment about candidate appeal having a limited effect is not true: this riding elected a Tory provincially in 2003 even as the PCs were getting swept from office, then turned around and elected a Liberal federally in 2004. There is no other explanation for that large swing than candidate popularity. That said, both Gary Carr and Garth Turner are well known. I would be inclined to give the Tories the edge at the moment, both because of the surging Conservative poll numbers and also because Garth's campaign has been more visible, but with two weeks left a lot can happen.
06 01 06 M. Lunn
I am moving this back to too close to call. Based on the current number in Ontario, Garth Turner would probably win if they hold them, but assuming the Liberals do re-bound than Gary Carr will be re-elected. Garth Turner is no doubt running a very strong campaign so if the Tories win this, it will be more due to Garth Turner's campaign than the national campaign.
02 01 06 Warner
Garth Turner will win this riding on election night. Gary Carr's incumbency advantage is marginal considering the high media profile that Garth has enjoyed since his forced political retirement in 1993. I have worked on campaigns in the past where the conservative challenger was a local media personality (Ed Doyle - Stoney Creek 1995). The name recognition factor at the door enhanced the ability of the candidate to get the message out.
14 12 05 love, sydney
This is going blue and would have even without the current trend of liberal red leakage around the province. Garth Turner knows of what he speaks, doesn't come across as some of the fringe-right members of the tories (tho he may be out there on a few issues) and has a solid profile. I hate to say this, but if Martin doesn't wrench it up a bit and roll up the sleeves against Harper, Garth will be a likely choice for Industry Minister.
06 12 05 Wonka
REH bases his prediction on his opinion of Garth, an opinion which is not founded in fact or reason.
I would encourage everyone to look at the facts. With a high average household income, mainly made up of young families with children in the south end and in Milton, along with a strong and dedicated rural contingent coupled with Conservative announcements on reducing the GST and Choice for Childcare, makes this a very winnable riding for Garth.
06 12 05 M. Lunn
Garth Turner has been campaigning for almost six months straight, which will likely close the gap as voter identification is a key thing to winning seats. However, local candidates rarely swing a riding by more than 5% and with the Conservatives being just as far back as they were last time around, I cannot see them picking this one up. They might pick up Ancaster-Dundas-Flamborough-Westdale and Burlington if they are lucky, but even that is questionable. Garth Turner has a good chance at cracking the 40% mark, which in most ridings would be enough to win, but with the NDP being virtually non-existent here, the problem of vote splitting on the left won't be an issue here.
03 12 05 REH
Mr. Turner is not going to win. Those who remember him from the Kim Campbell government when he had a summer job in Cabinet will remember that he was very much big mouth and very little accomplishment. After defeat he went into business as a tax and investment advisor trumpeting the "fact" that he "ran Canada's tax system". A bad joke. I have read his current web site and his articles and answers to reader's questions. He still has a big mouth, likes to put people down and shoot from the lip.
25 11 05 Matt
Garth Turner and his riding association have been door knocking and engaging the public for weeks now, long before the talk of a winter election started. They have been very protective in putting out informative publications on issues of importance to residents of Halton. It won't be a landslide, but Garth's experience and the support he's getting should be enough to make this a Conservative riding in this upcoming election.
17 09 05 M. Lunn
The Choice of Garth Turner was probably a good choice since he was an effective MP with his frequent town hall meetings. However that was over ten years ago and many new people have moved into the riding since then and many were too young to vote. Also in the urban portions of the riding, people tend to vote solely for party while individual candidate only really matters in the rural parts. The Conservatives will likely crack the 40% mark this time, but a 10 point deficit is just too much to overcome unless the Tories narrow their overall gap in Ontario. This should be a safe Conservative riding and if they choose a more moderate leader, they should easily take it next time, but Stephen Harper's hardline conservatism just doesn't sell well here.
09 06 05 A.S.
Sure, going simply by the abstract fact of his past parliamentary/cabinet/leadership-contender tenure, Garth Turner may look formidable on paper; but there's a lot of iffyness that one can attach to his post-parliamentary career as a broadcast-media "financial advisor" that wasn't there back in 1988 or 1993. It isn't like Haltonians are going to warm to a suspected Lionel Hutz type as their lawfully elected representative, you know. Besides, Gary Carr's just Tory enough for them, right down to his ex-PC--heck, ex-PC-MPP-and-*Speaker*--credentials. Though still within target range, for sure--after all, this was one of many '04 brink-of-Tory seats that only tipped into Grit territory on E-day. But don't be surprised, even in lieu of Frank Magazine, if Garth's recent career is highlighted to Tory disfavour...
08 07 05 MC
Terence Young so much more popular than Gary Carr that he lost his nomination to Carr in 1999!!!
06 07 05 Pete
Terence Young is a star candidate. He won by a huge majority in 1995 - over 16,000 votes - the fourth largest in Ontario - far more than Gary Carr. He's on TV all the time for drug safety stuff - CBC, CTV, and TVO because he founded an organization to help save the lives of people when they take prescription drugs. By polling his name recognition in town is actually higher than Bonnie Brown's.
09 06 05 A.S.
Sure, going simply by the abstract fact of his past parliamentary/cabinet/leadership-contender tenure, Garth Turner may look formidable on paper; but there's a lot of iffyness that one can attach to his post-parliamentary career as a broadcast-media "financial advisor" that wasn't there back in 1988 or 1993. It isn't like Haltonians are going to warm to a suspected Lionel Hutz type as their lawfully elected representative, you know. Besides, Gary Carr's just Tory enough for them, right down to his ex-PC--heck, ex-PC-MPP-and-*Speaker*--credentials. Though still within target range, for sure--after all, this was one of many '04 brink-of-Tory seats that only tipped into Grit territory on E-day. But don't be surprised, even in lieu of Frank Magazine, if Garth's recent career is highlighted to Tory disfavour...
12 05 05
Just got back from the Halton Conservative nomination meeting. A very good turn-out (750 or so). Apparently inside of twelve days, the riding association more than tripled its membership (no sign of insta-delegates either). Garth Turner won on the second ballot. He will be a formidable candidate to go up against Gary Carr. Lots of name recognition, and positive appeal. He'll need to work for it in the Oakville and Burlington sections of the riding, but I think at the end of the day he should win. If a Tory wave materializes, or if the Liberals sink across Ontario, Turner will win in a walk.
05 05 05 M. Lunn
This is a conservative leaning riding, but considering the liberals won by 10% last time around, they still might pull it off again. The rural parts of the provincial riding of Halton were transferred to Wellington-Halton Hills, which the Conservatives won, so the current riding is not as conservative as the provincial riding. Garth Turner will certainly make it more competitive if he wins the nomination, but Gary Carr is reasonably popular, despite being a turncoat, since he frequently disagreed with Mike Harris' Common Sense Revolution, so many believe he won't blindly tow the party line federally either.
02 05 05 Brandon
Garth Turner, the former PC Cabinet Minister under Kim Campbell, PC leadership contender, and former Halton-Peel MP, is seeking the nomination for the CPC. If he wins, he is up against Liberal Gary Carr. Carr has taken a lot of flack from his constituents for promising before the election to support same-sex marriage and then vote against it after once elected. This is actually becoming a wedge issue here---by reading the local media. This went Liberal by only 5,000 votes last time and is partly rural. A star-candidate like Turner would no doubt return it to the Tories who held it comfortably provincially last time. After all, Turner came dangerously close to surviving the Liberal landslide in 1993.



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