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12:41 AM 23/11/2005

La prévision a changé
12:39 AM 03/05/2005
Projet D'Élection Prévision

2005 - élection générale (Canada)

Profil de circonscription

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Bloc Québécois
Justine Charlemagne
Stéphane Chénier
Laura Colella
Massimo Pacetti
Pierre-Louis Parant
Ercolano Pingiotti

Massimo Pacetti

2004 Résultats:
Massimo Pacetti
Paul-Alexis François
Laura Colella
Payam Eslami
Ricardo Fellicetti
Stéphane Chénier

Pour des résultats historiques, voyez svp
2004 Projet D'Élection Prévision

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21 11 05 Ex-liberal
This riding is full of Italians, and as we all know Italians = Liberal voters. Enough said. Easy Liberal win.
21 11 05 Liberty Canada
Even if Alfatso Gagliano runs here as an indie, the most it will do is slighly shave the massive plurality that Massimo Pacetti will win by by a couple of Thousand votes. Basically it means the Bloc will finish third.
18 11 05 M. Lunn
Whether Alfonso Gagliano runs as an Independent or not, Massimo Pacetti will hold this riding. Gagliano may have been popular once but considering the Sponsorship Scandal is a bigger issue in Quebec than anywhere else in Canada, I don't think people will take to kindly to electing the man who oversaw the Public Works depeartment during the scandal.
07 11 05 MM
Former Public Works Minister Alfonso Gagliano recently announced his intention to run as an independent candidate in his riding. His candidacy has the potential to transform the safest Liberal riding on the eastern part of Montreal Island into one of the most interesting race in the province.
In recent history, Gagliano constantly managed to get over 20,000-25,000 votes in the time he was MP for that area. The current Liberal MP seems to have been elected more in memory of the fallen ambassador in Denmark than for his personality. Hence it could be interesting to know how many votes Gagliano will eventually attract. If Gagliano can take a big chunk of votes and organizers out of the Liberal column, that could create a three-way race between the Bloc, the Liberals and Gagliano the independent.
My current guess is that if Gagliano walks his talk, he might get his revenge against the party that expulsed him. He's still very well liked in his home riding.
17 05 05 Aric H
I am part Italian, and as is well-known, St. Leonard has the largest Italian population in Quebec. Almost 1/3 of St. Leonard is Italian according to statistics. This is a Liberal stronghold and it will remain Liberal - even if Mr. Pacetti is more socially Conservative than he should be and has opposed both same-sex marriage and the sexual orientation hate crimes bill despite the fact that most Quebecers support these.
17 05 05 Bear and Ape
Without knowing the riding, and looking solely at geography, you may think that the BQ has a chance here. The truth is that the very strong Italian (amongst other) community will allow the Liberals an easy win.
05 05 05 BrianJA
This riding is quite funny. It was the place where the man who held the government purse during Adscam used to sit. Yet, come heck or high water, this riding will be Liberal and Liberal only for the forseeable future. And if the Liberal vote ever completely collapses, it'll go Conservative. But never, NEVER will it EVER go Bloc. Prediction: Pacetti will hold and get the majority vote here.
02 05 05 M. Lunn
This is likely the only non-Anglophone riding, but rather an predominately immigrant riding that will stay liberal. Massimo Pacetti is well liked amongst the large Italian community and most of the Italians will never vote for a separtist party. Even Alfonso Gagliano despite what he was involved in could probably still win this riding, although him running would probably hurt the liberals elsewhere.
26 04 05 Neal
Amazingly this is the riding that once belonged to Alfatso Gagliano, the tip of the Adscam Iceberg, the man who by getting caught, began the deluge. This riding will never vote anything but Liberal no matter how discredited they are.

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